Thursday, January 28, 2010

Statement of Sheikh Ali Al-Muthaba Senior Commander, Jash-al-Mehdi, On the Lancaster House Conference

RIGHT TRUTH. 28 January 2010. Sheikh Ali al-Muthaba, Senior Commander, Jash-al-Mehdi, this date, made the following statement, which appeared in the Guardian of London. A companion statement was made available exclusively to RIGHT TRUTH.


Statement of Sheikh Ali Al-Muthaba
Senior Commander, Jash-al-Mehdi,
On the Lancaster House Conference

28 January 2010

May an abundance of Heavenly Blessings shine upon the peoples and Armed Forces of Afghanistan, Iraq, the United States, the United Kingdom and Allied Powers.

The Lancaster House Conference is important because of the diplomatic work, which went into its run-up and, of even greater urgency, the more important work, which must now go into its follow-on, overt and covert, in advance of the forthcoming Kabul Conference, to be convened by the President of Afghanistan, which must find the Taliban at the table, in advance of the process for post-occupation national reconciliation.. Within this context, continued constructive engagement of Taliban leadership shall remain crucial to successful implementation of the Conference Communique.

HBM’s Prime Minister holds that over the long-term it might be possible to encourage many of those waging war against international troops to stop. Further he holds that it is right to believe that over the long-term we can split the Taliban. I continue to caution against undue efforts to split rank and file Taliban from Taliban leadership. Just as I continue to caution against the folly of co-opting moderates, so called, at the expense of extremists. I delight in noting that Lancaster House is setting forth a dual track approach, which will permit us to do the one integral to the other. It being fully appreciated that, to assuage public opinion on Mullah Omar, we’ll have to obfuscate on true intent. Leaving the squaring of the short vs. long-term to the political Afghan process, once the limelight is off London. For now, the Prime Minister getting to pronounce the conference a resounding success.

Within this context, I delight in noting that General David H. Petraeus, Commander, United States Central Command, calls for dealings with the Taliban at more senior levels than previously envisioned by the uninitiated. An approach, as enlightened than the one he and I took towards the Hoyatoleslam Muqtadir al-Sadar in aligning the Jash-al-Mehdi with the United States Army in advance of the Baghdad Security Plan, with the goal of reducing sectarian violence, in furtherance of Iraqi national reconciliation. I laud the General for advancing the concept of reconciliation, of talks between senior Afghan officials and senior Taliban or other insurgent leaders, perhaps involving some Pakistani officials as well, is another possibility. General Stanley McCrystal, the Commander of U.S. and Coalition Forces in Afghanistan, is said to concur. General McCrystal’s important statement to the Conference further underscoring the inspired approach now taken by the U.S. National Command Authority. The Brain Trust at work, how senior, and who are “the other insurgent leaders?” Another excellent term, Gereral Petraeus has coined for the vocabulary of asymmetrical warfare. We can keep this term constructively ambiguous. Short-term. And the uninitiated will be no wiser.

I delight in noting that, pursuant to Lancaster House, MODERATES and RANK AND FILE are no longer in the center of attention. While indeed the public will be made to focus on the economic development track, the quieter diplomatic track two will prove the more decisive. Somewhere in between the two tracks lies the key to success.

I shall assume that it is fully appreciated that the surge just lacks credibility with Taliban, and other insurgent leaders. Where are they, the surging troops so-called, one is tempted to ask? I may assure all, the Brothers aren’t shaking in their boots, yet. Further, the Chief of Defense Staff of Pakistan holding firm on not doing the U.S. bidding against Pak-Taliban depriving U.S. of two-front encirclement. An important front in the American War Plan. While I cannot address myself on Pak-Taliban, external to my mandate obo the Hoyatoleslam, Mullah Omar will strongly impress on the Brothers not to engage Pak General Staff. Now not being the time for Rawalpindi-II.

Within the larger frame of reference, my statement of 27 December 2009, echoing my earlier address to the Inter-Agency-Working Group of the United States Government, convened at the State Department, 27 March 2009, references, here EXCERPTED::

There will be no scaling back the Afghan war effort. NOT a term/ concept, which could not be sold to the Congressionals/ American public. Nonetheless, and I affirm my earlier message in this regard, the thrust/ primary objectives of the war SHALL change. QUIETLY. And where I speak of WH public affairs squaring circles, I reference that they will do what VEEP is advocating, while couching it in language more readily agreeable. (EDITORIAL COMMENT: Cross-reference to NYT article of 26 January 2010, citing VEEP as in support of direct approach to Taliban leadership.)

I had the privilege to be consulted integral to the review process. On 27 March 2009, I addressed the Inter-Agency-Working-Group at the State Department, stating: “My political friends, in both the Sunni insurgency and among the Shia militias, have warmly received the promise of the positive signal inherent in President Obama’s enlightened approach to their Freedom Struggle. Informed by both, the Indonesian and Kenyan Liberation struggles, the President’s quest, not to reform a corrupt system, but to build anew, incidentally abroad as at home, is encouraging. The Peoples of the World are encouraged to find that the President does not consider an enlightened humanism to define American exceptionalism, but the world's destiny. It is time to match the President’s rhetoric with goal-oriented action.”

The President did advance the agenda when, at West Point, declaring that in the struggle against entrenched authoritarian regimes “the United States will support movements of hope and history.” I do see potential for Taliban to rank among those movements of hope and history and do not share the view of those who view heightened clashes between Taliban and the U.S. Army inevitable. Just as, in January 2007, when President Bush announced the Iraq surge, I advised that there needed not be an inevitable Armageddon between the U.S. Army and the Jaish-al-Mehdi, subsequent to which I helped pave the way for the insertion of Iraqi and U.S. troops into Sadr City. Similar arrangements can be made in Afghanistan, if recent signaling is permitted to translate into motion en route to movement. I am encouraged to expect a conciliatory message from Mullah Omar in response to the President’s new approach.

I have myself for close to two years now been in direct contact with Taliban leadership, including Mullah Omar, whom I firmly believe, history will vindicate, just as history will vindicate the Hoyatoleslam Muqtadir al-Sadar. I have helped facilitate al-Sadr’s direct contact with Mullah Omar and arranged for their subsequent meeting in spring 2009. I am proud of this accomplishment, as I firmly believe that it is essential for the leaders of these “movements of hope and history” to meet to compare notes. I view this as essential to co-opting them in advance of reconciliation and their eventual reintegration into the political process.

As I said at State, “I disagree with the approach taken by the U.S. towards the Taliban. Don’t cultivate moderate elements of the Taliban. Instead, cultivate the most extreme elements of the Taliban, amenable to cultivating under terms you can live with, and then let them cultivate those uncultivateable for you. That, usually, results in their elimination.”

The U.S. approach to Taliban leadership remains ambiguous. Clearly, although the overall U.S. objective of the U.S. in Afghanistan is to annihilate al-Qaeda, the plan also calls to take on Taliban. The question, as to for what purpose: to annihilate, as well, or to make amenable to political compromise? I am encouraged to hold that the latter is the case, as I am pleased to note that the President has authorized informal but direct contact with Taliban leadership. I am further pleased to note that the Pakistan Government is encouraging the White House to reach out to Mullah Omar, directly.

Therefore, I have recommended to Mullah Omar to duplicate the President’s approach: to engage militarily, if forced to, but to engage politically, wherever feasible, the draw-down of U.S. forces providing an opportunity for Taliban to declare victory, presupposing the U.S. does not take five years to accomplish the task of complete withdrawal. The insertion of Pak Taliban forces into the Afghan theater, while simultaneously reaching out to both the U.S. and U.K. Governments should be seen in this context.

An understanding can be reached: Taliban can be swayed to lay down their weapons, as a prerequisite for their inclusion in the political process and return to government. Give them health, education, youth and religious affairs, while retaining the remainder of the public portfolio. They can be swayed to tone down their public posture and, following the Saudi/ Wahabi example, keep their excesses out of the Western spot light. Mullah Omar can retain the role of a sage on the margin of the political process, or fall victim to frailness. Past propositions for exile don’t strike his fancy.

It must be understood that for Taliban to demobilize as a military organization, as opposed to decommissioning their weapons, is a non-starter and a deal-breaker. “Peace through Strength” calls upon Taliban leadership to work for peace, while being prepared for war. Within this context, Sheik Nasrallah and Hezbollah continue to provide guide and counsel to all liberation movements.

President Karzai is interested in meeting with Taliban, but low- and medium-level. Ostensibly, so he claims, in order to weaken Mullah Omar from within, thus making him more amenable to subsequent overtures. The folly of President Karzai’s approach manifest in Taliban’s continued refusal to meet. My recommendation to the U.S. to overcome the road-block by direct contact with Mullah Omar. A quiet understanding between the White House and Mullah Omar now will lead the President’s approach to success, just as the Bush White House’s understanding with al-Sadr helped pave the way for aligning the Jaish-al-Mehdi with the U.S. Army, facilitating a withdrawal from Iraq under the fig leaf of battlefield success, while relinquishing the political to the Sadrist Movement. The U.K. Government, as usual, better equipped to handle this-type post-Colonial police intervention to pacify warring tribes in the far-flung corners of Empire, sharing the overall view that an accommodation with Taliban leadership is critical to mission success but, like the Americans, skeptical as to how much can be realistically achieved in the short time span given. The issue pending, as to whether to include a Taliban deputation in the London conference convened by PM Gordon Brown, which is hoped to help set the stage for a subsequent national reconciliation conference to be convened by President Karzai.

A critical issue, which remains to be squared: can Taliban be turned against Al Qaeda. In March, I told the IAWG: “I do not believe that in Afghanistan you will get Taliban to move against AQ. What would make you think they would, given that on many doctrinal issues Taliban is even more orthodox than AQ and certainly, between the two, the caliber of leadership is the greater in AQ. And they’re all inter-related. They will continue to be guided by common interest in destabilizing Pakistan. Any effort in Afghanistan, which addresses Taliban, but does not address AQ, is doomed to failure! Clearly, bin-Laden and Dr. Zawahiri will remain personas non-grata, awaiting Camry. But, a modus of infiltration must be found to co-opt the younger AQ leadership. Do you, honestly, believe in an all-out U.S. battlefield victory over AQ? I do not.”

Recent indications from Mullah Omar are helping change my assessment, presupposing that the U.S. offer is sufficiently enticing. He will address himself on this in his forthcoming message. I hold firm on the view that it is folly to attempt to separate rank and file from leadership.

The Administration is in the process of affecting a major strategic adjustment in the “Larger War,” moving the front from Iraq to Afghanistan. I am not a proponent of this move. The national U.S. interest is at stake in Iraq, because of continued U.S. reliance on affordable oil, Iraq’s potential juxtaposition in the ME and potential positioning contra Iran. … Vital U.S. national interests are not at stake in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is a failed State and, like many States around the world, will remain a failed State for years to come. …Failure in Afghanistan will not adversely impact the United States. … Afghanistan is important, because we will not want to permit her, yet again, to provide safe heaven to AQ. But, if not welcome in Afghanistan, AQ will move to Sudan, Somalia, or a host of other countries. Therefore, if we do believe AQ to remain a direct threat to the U.S., let us make Afghanistan the decisive battleground, with the objective of AQ’s outright annihilation. That raises, again, the issue of capacity and intent. It also raises serious questions about strategy. …Certainly it would help pave the way for the smaller footprint, which is in the works, with an eye on Pakistan…. So I said in March.

Furthermore, I said, “I am not for a minute advocating for the United States to disengage. That would be a disaster. But, re-evaluate your priorities on the basis of (vital) national interest, upon which is dependent clear definitions of objectives over goals and fit your modalities to match your objectives, while building up your capacity. Not every crisis calls for U.S. action. That presupposes clarity of purpose, on the basis of which you must allocate the resources necessary to effect a major U.S. military expansion. Or, when that war standard has been hoisted, you will find yourself coming out short. Following 9/11, President Bush led you into battle on the cheap. Time is approaching for President Obama to mobilize the American people to the “Greater War” looming.” I am pleased to note that the President is continuing the process of re-evaluation.
END OF EXCERPT.

The peoples and Armed Forces of Afghanistan, Iraq, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Allied Powers rest assured of the highest esteem of their comrades in arms within the Jash-al-Mehdi.

Citizens of the World --- Movements of Hope and History, UNITE.

Sheikh Ali Al-Muthaba
Senior Commander
Jash-al-Mehdi


GUARDIAN
STATEMENT:

Jash-al-Mehdi General Command
28 Jan 2010, 7:19PM
Statement of Sheikh Ali Al-Muthaba
Senior Commander, Jash-al-Mehdi,
On the Lancaster House Conference

28 January 2010

The Lancaster House Conference is important because of the diplomatic work, which went into its run-up and, of even greater urgency, the more important work, which must now go into its follow-on, overt and covert, in advance of the forthcoming Kabul Conference, to be convened by the President of Afghanistan, which must find the Taliban at the table, in advance of the process for post-occupation national reconciliation.. Within this context, continued constructive engagement of Taliban leadership shall remain crucial to successful implementation of the Conference Communique.

HBM?s Prime Minister holds that over the long-term it might be possible to encourage many of those waging war against international troops to stop. Further he holds that it is right to believe that over the long-term we can split the Taliban. I continue to caution against undue efforts to split rank and file Taliban from Taliban leadership. Just as I continue to caution against the folly of co-opting moderates, so called, at the expense of extremists. I delight in noting that Lancaster House is setting forth a dual track approach, which will permit us to do the one integral to the other. It being fully appreciated that, to assuage public opinion on Mullah Omar, we?ll have to obfuscate on true intent. Leaving the squaring of the short vs. long-term to the political Afghan process, once the limelight is off London. For now, the Prime Minister getting to pronounce the conference a resounding success.

Within this context, I delight in noting that General David H. Petraeus, Commander, United States Central Command, calls for dealings with the Taliban at more senior levels than previously envisioned by the uninitiated. An approach, as enlightened than the one he and I took towards the Hoyatoleslam Muqtadir al-Sadar in aligning the Jash-al-Mehdi with the United States Army in advance of the Baghdad Security Plan, with the goal of reducing sectarian violence, in furtherance of Iraqi national reconciliation. I laud the General for advancing the concept of reconciliation, of talks between senior Afghan officials and senior Taliban or other insurgent leaders, perhaps involving some Pakistani officials as well, is another possibility. General Stanley McCrystal, the Commander of U.S. and Coalition Forces in Afghanistan, is said to concur. General McCrystal?s important statement to the Conference further underscoring the inspired approach now taken by the U.S. National Command Authority. The Brain Trust at work, how senior, and who are ?the other insurgent leaders?? Another excellent term, General Petraeus has coined for the vocabulary of asymmetrical warfare. We can keep this term constructively ambiguous. Short-term. And the uninitiated will be no wiser.

I had the privilege to be consulted integral to the review process. On 27 March 2009, I addressed the Inter-Agency-Working-Group at the State Department, stating: ?My political friends, in both the Sunni insurgency and among the Shia militias, have warmly received the promise of the positive signal inherent in President Obama?s enlightened approach to their Freedom Struggle. At West Point, the President speaks of the Movements of Hope and History, whom the United States could support.

I have myself for close to two years now been in direct contact with Taliban leadership, including Mullah Omar, whom I firmly believe, history will vindicate, just as history will vindicate the Hoyatoleslam Muqtadir al-Sadar. I have helped facilitate al-Sadr?s direct contact with Mullah Omar and arranged for their subsequent meeting in spring 2009. I am proud of this accomplishment, as I firmly believe that it is essential for the leaders of these ?movements of hope and history? to meet to compare notes. I view this as essential to co-opting them in advance of reconciliation and their eventual reintegration into the political process.

As I said at State, ?I disagree with the approach taken by the U.S. towards the Taliban. Don?t cultivate moderate elements of the Taliban. Instead, cultivate the most extreme elements of the Taliban, amenable to cultivating under terms you can live with, and then let them cultivate those uncultivateable for you. That, usually, results in their elimination.?

The U.S. approach to Taliban leadership remains ambiguous. An understanding can be reached: Taliban can be swayed to lay down their weapons, as a prerequisite for their inclusion in the political process and return to government. Give them health, education, youth and religious affairs, while retaining the remainder of the public portfolio. They can be swayed to tone down their public posture and, following the Saudi/ Wahabi example, keep their excesses out of the Western spot light. Mullah Omar can retain the role of a sage on the margin of the political process, or fall victim to frailness.

Afghanistan: More talks, more war

Editorial
The Guardian, Thursday 28 January 2010

No international conference on Afghanistan would be complete without the leak of a memo to undermine it. The damage was done to today's conference in London by the publication of diplomatic cables from the US ambassador in Kabul. The star guest of today's conference, President Hamid Karzai, the man on whom too much of Washington's strategy rests, is, in Karl Eikenberry's words, an inadequate strategic partner who continues to shun responsibility for any sovereign burden. The cables were written in November and pre-date President Barack Obama's announcement of a surge. Since then, their author professed his unequivocal support for the mission before Congress. But that is not what his cables say. In arguing that more troops would only increase Afghan dependence and may delay the day when US troops can be withdrawn, they undermine the whole rationale of the surge. The leaking of the cables just before this conference goes beyond the realm of healthy debate. It can only attest to abiding divisions within the US administration itself.

So another conference starts – this is at least the sixth in nine years – with private doubts about strategy being expressed by the very people whose job is to promote it. As we all knew he would and despite speeches to the contrary, Mr Karzai has doggedly resisted attempts to reform his graft-riddled government. He comes to London with only half a cabinet in place, but having reaffirmed the appointment of General Abdul Rashid Dostum as his chief of staff, a man accused of serious human rights abuses. Zarar Ahmad Moqbel, the man who oversaw the most corrupt organisation in the government, the interior ministry, has gone up in the world. He is now in charge of combating the opium industry, the world's largest. It may be truer to say that he is now in charge of the opium industry. Two of the shadiest ex-warlords, Mohammad Qasim Fahim and Karim Khalili, are vice-­presidents. Thus far Mr Eikenberry's predictions about the behaviour of the Afghan president, after an election which was internationally discredited, have held true. Mr Karzai's real interest is in rewarding supporters and keeping the warlords onside. Having recognised his dodgy re-election, Mr Karzai's international backers have once again no real levers to pull against the Afghan president.

This has a bearing on the second plank of the London conference, an attempt to engineer new talks with the Taliban. The stage has been set for this by the removal of five former senior Taliban officials from a UN sanctions list, and Mr Karzai may attempt to steal the show by announcing a Loya Jirga, or an assembly of elders, to discuss talking to the Taliban. Without Mr Karzai in place, and without a surge, this may have had a chance of success, even though it would require enough senior Taliban to recognise that they too cannot win militarily, and there is scant evidence of that. With Mr Karzai in place the prospects of a breakthrough are slimmer still. In December 2007 he expelled a western official for trying just that. Michael Semple has written extensively about the value of negotiating with Taliban. Mr Semple believes a Belfast-style power-sharing agreement with the Taliban remains the only viable way out of a conflict that can not be won militarily. While the war rages, he argues, it becomes a cover for serial breaches of human rights on both sides, and removes accountability both by the ­government and the Taliban.

This is not the current model of reconciliation, which would be a means of splitting the footsoldiers from its leadership. Taliban ­commanders will not break with the person they regard as the symbol of resistance, their leader Mullah Omar. Real negotiations would not be an attempt to win the war by other means but a move away from it. The problem with the surge is that, far from persuading the Taliban that they cannot win, it gives them every ­incentive to fight on.

Monday, December 28, 2009

President’s Afghanistan Strategy: Repudiating GEN Petraeus

President’s Afghanistan Strategy: Repudiating GEN Petraeus

Sheik Ali al-Muthaba1 comments on “Differing views of new Afghan strategy,” article by Rajiv Chandrasekaran, Washington Post, 26 December 2009

RIGHT TRUTH EXCLUSIVE. 27 December 2009.

Rajiv Chandrasekaran’s article, “Differing views of new Afghan strategy,” Washington Post, 26 December 2009, must leave every American patriot heart-sick. As a friend of the United States, I share in the grief of the American patriot. For what is said in claiming, while citing unnamed U.S. government officials, that “The White House's desired end state in Afghanistan envisions more informal local security arrangements than in Iraq, a less-capable national government and a greater tolerance of insurgent violence,” while at the same time an unnamed Pentagon spokesman is quoted as stating, “We need to be able to articulate winning,” is clearly that U.S. military objectives in Afghanistan now are no longer about winning, but deflecting/ managing defeat. For does “a greater tolerance of insurgent violence” not imply a greater tolerance of the insurgent’s military and political objectives, while conceding one‘s inability to defeat the insurgency outright? How, having conceded strategic defeat, would one explain this to the mother of a soldier, who falls in the months, ahead, as the war’s original objectives are now recognized to be beyond reach?

I am saddened to note that the article illustrates a widening rift between the National Command Authority and the White House on the war‘s objectives, goals, and strategy. Understandably so, as, eventually, someone will have to be blamed for having lost in Afghanistan. The year has been good for Taliban, who are on the verge of achieving their objectives, as stated by ADM Mike Mullen, a trend not readily reversed by the President taking his time to agree upon a new strategy and now taking his time implementing it, while overall retaining a constructive ambiguity on the strategy’s objectives. Lacking clarity of purpose, in times of war, a sure recipe for defeat.

To make the point on how strong the contrasts are between the civilian and military leadership, do let us compare some of Mr. Chandrasekaran’s quotations:

Mr. Chandrasekaran reminds us that Vice President Biden told MSNBC last week: "The strategy has fundamentally changed. This is not a COIN strategy," using the military's shorthand for counterinsurgency. "This is not 'go out and occupy the whole country." He goes on to write: “Although senior-level civilians in the administration emerged from the review process thinking the mission had been circumscribed, senior military officials continue to have a different view. The result, as they see it, is that the White House has embraced McChrystal's original plan. … (In contrast) White House advisers maintain that the review process did refine the mission beyond what McChrystal had proposed over the summer. "There was a real narrowing here," the senior administration official said. "Stan has a big leadership task to adapt his original concept to the new strategic guidance."

Mr. Chandrasekaran writes: “The NSC's strategic guidance, a classified document that outlines the president's new approach, was described by the senior administration official as limiting military operations "in scale and scope to the minimum required to achieve two goals -- to prevent al-Qaeda safe havens and to prevent the Taliban from toppling the government." The use of resource-intensive counterinsurgency tactics -- employing U.S. forces to protect Afghan civilians from the Taliban -- is supposed to be restricted to key cities and towns in southern and eastern parts of the country, the official said."

Furthermore, “White House officials said the president opposes using the forces he has authorized to duplicate an expansive, Iraq-style counterinsurgency operation -- in part because he questions whether it will be possible to achieve a similar outcome in Afghanistan, which is less developed, and because he wants to start reducing troops in 18 months. The White House's desired end state in Afghanistan, officials said, envisions more informal local security arrangements than in Iraq, a less-capable national government and a greater tolerance of insurgent violence. "

In that, the President is repudiating GEN Petraeus’ approach in Iraq, realizing that, a momentary reduction in violence notwithstanding, President Bush’s surge in 2007 failed to achieve any of its stated political objectives. The President further realizing that he is confronting a similar outcome in Afghanistan. Therefore, the President is justified in narrowing the scope of U.S. political objectives in Afghanistan. The narrowing of the U.S. military mission must be seen integral to the narrowing of the political scope. And yet, as Mr. Chandrasekaran writes: “Senior military officials still think they can achieve a better outcome than envisaged by civilian skeptics in the administration by using the new forces to mount more comprehensive counterinsurgency operations. Although Pentagon strategists and McChrystal's advisers in Kabul are looking at how they can fulfill the White House desire for a less extensive mission, military officials said they are reluctant to strip too much away and weaken an approach that has come to be revered within the ranks as the only way to suppress guerrilla movements. … McChrystal's plan, the senior Pentagon official said, "is still counterinsurgency, regardless of the various agendas people are trying to spin."

President Obama’s surge in Afghanistan is President Bush’s surge in Iraq revisited. Except, President surged to buy time, while digging in deeper, whereas President Obama, having shorn up his right flank, is setting forth an exit strategy on acceptable terms to both, the United States and the insurgency. Only to find himself undercut by the military brass.

Mr. Chandrasekaran writes: “Two days before announcing the deployment of additional U.S. troops to Afghanistan, President Obama informed Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal that he was not granting McChrystal's request to double the size of the Afghan army and police. …The president told McChrystal, the top commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, to focus for now on fielding a little more than half that number by next October.” A further clear indication that the President did not approve the General’s war plan. As yet, still not officially in the public domain, as to how many additional U.S. troops the General really requested, all the while having convinced the American public that the 30k figure, the General’s low-end, was what he really was asking for at the high end.

As a result, while the President directs one thing, the military continues to plan for something else. As Mr. Chandrasekaran writes: “Ten days after Obama's speech, the U.S. command responsible for training the Afghans circulated a chart detailing the combined personnel targets for the army and police. McChrystal's goal of 400,000 remained unchanged. "It's an open issue," a senior Pentagon official said last week.” And I would have thought, the President has spoken.

At the same time, states Mr. Chandrasekaran, “Members of Obama's war cabinet disagree over the meaning of his pledge to begin drawing down forces in July 2011 and whether the mission has been narrowed from a proposal advanced by McChrystal in his August assessment of the war.” I thought, the President had addressed himself on this quite clearly at West Point, only, almost immediately to be corrected by SecDEF Bill Gates who, ex post Presidento, made the draw-down “conditions-based.” But for Iran, Presidents are not customarily publicly corrected by members of the Cabinet. Writes Mr. Chandrasekaran: “The result has been a wide divergence of expectations. Gates, appearing on NBC's "Meet the Press" the Sunday after the speech, said that perhaps only "some handful or some small number" would be withdrawn. Biden, during his MSNBC appearance last week, said a chart showing an increase in U.S. deployments this year would be "coming down as rapidly over the next two years."

Mr. Chandrasekaran writes, “The disagreements have opened a fault line between a desire for an early exit among several senior officials at the White House and a conviction among military commanders that victory is still achievable on their terms.” A term absent from the President’s thinking. While, a week after the President opted not to use the term, Mr. Gates is off to Kabul to proclaim, “we are I this thing to win.” Is is thus surprising that Mr. Chandrasekaran states, “the National Security Council is discussing ways to increase monitoring of military and State Department activities in Afghanistan to prevent "overreaching."

Mr. Chandrasekaran’s article in December would seem to confirm what I advised relevant parties on 7 October 2007, while the President was still said publicly to be deciding on the new strategy:

1. US troops in Afghanistan will be augmented. And it will be in the 30-40k range. . Which will be sold to the public as that which Gen McCrystal wanted, while it really isn’t exactly what he was asking for!!! On Afghanistan, President Obama will not fall behind President Bush on Iraq. In that, he is caught in the operant dynamic affecting all American war Presidents.

2. There will be no scaling back the Afghan war effort. NOT a term/ concept, which could not be sold to the Congressionals/ American public. Nonetheless, and I affirm my earlier message in this regard, the thrust/ primary objectives of the war SHALL change. QUIETLY. And where I speak of WH public affairs squaring circles, I reference that they will do what VEEP is advocating, while couching it in language more readily agreeable.

I had the privilege to be consulted integral to the review process. On 27 March 2009, I addressed the Inter-Agency-Working-Group at the State Department, stating: “My political friends, in both the Sunni insurgency and among the Shia militias, have warmly received the promise of the positive signal inherent in President Obama’s enlightened approach to their Freedom Struggle. Informed by both, the Indonesian and Kenyan Liberation struggles, the President’s quest, not to reform a corrupt system, but to build anew, incidentally abroad as at home, is encouraging. The Peoples of the World are encouraged to find that the President does not consider an enlightened humanism to define American exceptionalism, but the world's destiny. It is time to match the President’s rhetoric with goal-oriented action.”

The President did advance the agenda when, at West Point, declaring that in the struggle against entrenched authoritarian regimes “the United States will support movements of hope and history.” I do see potential for Taliban to rank among those movements of hope and history and do not share the view of those who view heightened clashes between Taliban and the U.S. Army inevitable. Just as, in January 2007, when President Bush announced the Iraq surge, I advised that there needed not be an inevitable Armageddon between the U.S. Army and the Jaish-al-Mehdi, subsequent to which I helped pave the way for the insertion of Iraqi and U.S. troops into Sadr City. Similar arrangements can be made in Afghanistan, if recent signaling is permitted to translate into motion en route to movement. I am encouraged to expect a conciliatory message from Mullah Omar in response to the President’s new approach.

I have myself for close to two years now been in direct contact with Taliban leadership, including Mullah Omar, whom I firmly believe, history will vindicate, just as history will vindicate the Hoyatoleslam Muqtadir al-Sadar. I have helped facilitate al-Sadr’s direct contact with Mullah Omar and arranged for their subsequent meeting in spring 2009. I am proud of this accomplishment, as I firmly believe that it is essential for the leaders of these “movements of hope and history” to meet to compare notes. I view this as essential to co-opting them in advance of reconciliation and their eventual reintegration into the political process.

As I said at State, “I disagree with the approach taken by the U.S. towards the Taliban. Don’t cultivate moderate elements of the Taliban. Instead, cultivate the most extreme elements of the Taliban, amenable to cultivating under terms you can live with, and then let them cultivate those uncultivateable for you. That, usually, results in their elimination.”

The U.S. approach to Taliban leadership remains ambiguous. Clearly, although the overall U.S. objective of the U.S. in Afghanistan is to annihilate al-Qaeda, the plan also calls to take on Taliban. The question, as to for what purpose: to annihilate, as well, or to make amenable to political compromise? I am encouraged to hold that the latter is the case, as I am pleased to note that the President has authorized informal but direct contact with Taliban leadership. I am further pleased to note that the Pakistan Government is encouraging the White House to reach out to Mullah Omar, directly.

Therefore, I have recommended to Mullah Omar to duplicate the President’s approach: to engage militarily, if forced to, but to engage politically, wherever feasible, the draw-down of U.S. forces providing an opportunity for Taliban to declare victory, presupposing the U.S. does not take five years to accomplish the task of complete withdrawal. The insertion of Pak Taliban forces into the Afghan theater, while simultaneously reaching out to both the U.S. and U.K. Governments should be seen in this context.

An understanding can be reached: Taliban can be swayed to lay down their weapons, as a prerequisite for their inclusion in the political process and return to government. Give them health, education, youth and religious affairs, while retaining the remainder of the public portfolio. They can be swayed to tone down their public posture and, following the Saudi/ Wahabi example, keep their excesses out of the Western spot light. Mullah Omar can retain the role of a sage on the margin of the political process, or fall victim to frailness. Past propositions for exile don’t strike his fancy.

It must be understood that for Taliban to demobilize as a military organization, as opposed to decommissioning their weapons, is a non-starter and a deal-breaker. “Peace through Strength” calls upon Taliban leadership to work for peace, while being prepared for war. Within this context, Sheik Nasrallah and Hezbollah continue to provide guide and counsel to all liberation movements.

President Karzai is interested in meeting with Taliban, but low- and medium-level. Ostensibly, so he claims, in order to weaken Mullah Omar from within, thus making him more amenable to subsequent overtures. The folly of President Karzai’s approach manifest in Taliban’s continued refusal to meet. My recommendation to the U.S. to overcome the road-block by direct contact with Mullah Omar. A quiet understanding between the White House and Mullah Omar now will lead the President’s approach to success, just as the Bush White House’s understanding with al-Sadr helped pave the way for aligning the Jaish-al-Mehdi with the U.S. Army, facilitating a withdrawal from Iraq under the fig leaf of battlefield success, while relinquishing the political to the Sadrist Movement. The U.K. Government, as usual, better equipped to handle this-type post-Colonial police intervention to pacify warring tribes in the far-flung corners of Empire, sharing the overall view that an accommodation with Taliban leadership is critical to mission success but, like the Americans, skeptical as to how much can be realistically achieved in the short time span given. The issue pending, as to whether to include a Taliban deputation in the London conference convened by PM Gordon Brown, which is hoped to help set the stage for a subsequent national reconciliation conference to be convened by President Karzai.

A critical issue, which remains to be squared: can Taliban be turned against Al Qaeda. In March, I told the IAWG: “I do not believe that in Afghanistan you will get Taliban to move against AQ. What would make you think they would, given that on many doctrinal issues Taliban is even more orthodox than AQ and certainly, between the two, the caliber of leadership is the greater in AQ. And they’re all inter-related. They will continue to be guided by common interest in destabilizing Pakistan. Any effort in Afghanistan, which addresses Taliban, but does not address AQ, is doomed to failure! Clearly, bin-Laden and Dr. Zawahiri will remain personas non-grata, awaiting Camry. But, a modus of infiltration must be found to co-opt the younger AQ leadership. Do you, honestly, believe in an all-out U.S. battlefield victory over AQ? I do not.”

Recent indications from Mullah Omar are helping change my assessment, presupposing that the U.S. offer is sufficiently enticing. He will address himself on this in his forthcoming message. I hold firm on the view that it is folly to attempt to separate rank and file from leadership.

The Administration is in the process of affecting a major strategic adjustment in the “Larger War,” moving the front from Iraq to Afghanistan. I am not a proponent of this move. The national U.S. interest is at stake in Iraq, because of continued U.S. reliance on affordable oil, Iraq’s potential juxtaposition in the ME and potential positioning contra Iran. … Vital U.S. national interests are not at stake in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is a failed State and, like many States around the world, will remain a failed State for years to come. …Failure in Afghanistan will not adversely impact the United States. … Afghanistan is important, because we will not want to permit her, yet again, to provide safe heaven to AQ. But, if not welcome in Afghanistan, AQ will move to Sudan, Somalia, or a host of other countries. Therefore, if we do believe AQ to remain a direct threat to the U.S., let us make Afghanistan the decisive battleground, with the objective of AQ’s outright annihilation. That raises, again, the issue of capacity and intent. It also raises serious questions about strategy. …Certainly it would help pave the way for the smaller footprint, which is in the works, with an eye on Pakistan…. So I said in March.

Furthermore, I said, “I am not for a minute advocating for the United States to disengage. That would be a disaster. But, re-evaluate your priorities on the basis of (vital) national interest, upon which is dependent clear definitions of objectives over goals and fit your modalities to match your objectives, while building up your capacity. Not every crisis calls for U.S. action. That presupposes clarity of purpose, on the basis of which you must allocate the resources necessary to effect a major U.S. military expansion. Or, when that war standard has been hoisted, you will find yourself coming out short. Following 9/11, President Bush led you into battle on the cheap. Time is approaching for President Obama to mobilize the American people to the “Greater War” looming.” I am pleased to note that the President is continuing the process of re-evaluation.


1. Sheikh Ali al-Muthaba serves a Senior Commander of the Jaish al-Mehdi and is directed by Muqtadir al-Sadar to help draft the Taliban War Plan.

Friday, April 3, 2009

On the WAR: Is America Sleeping?

On the WAR: Is America Sleeping?

Keynote Address of Sheikh Ali al-Muthaba,
Senior Commander, Jaish-al-Mehdi,
before the Inter-Agency-Working-Group,
Department of State, Washington, DC, 27 March 2009


I shall speak in three parts: Part One, I shall pronounce nine key points, which set forth my carefully-considered positions on the War in Iraq, what I term the “Wider War,” i.e. How to confront Militant/ Political Islam, and what I term the “Greater War,” the threat perception emanating from Big Power involvement; Part Two, I shall expand on key points 1, 2, 3, and 9; Part Three, I shall provide an Iraq War Progress Report. The report is in follow-up to the Iraq Situation Interim Report, 19 July 2007. Part Four, I shall address myself on the Iraq Question, integral to the “Wider War,” while making passing reference to the “Greater War.”

I shall not address myself on key points 4 through 8, which go to the specificity of the Afghan Question, as it is external to my professional purview. Further, beyond the meta-conceptual, I shall not address myself on specific aspects of the “Wider War” and the “Greater War.”

PART ONE: the Key Points

To begin, I shall make the following nine KEY POINTS:

1. The War in Iraq is lost, with the United States military effort having failed to achieve its stated political objectives.

2. The U.S. and Allied response to Political Islam, awakening in countries around the world, is conceptually flawed due to a lack of understanding of its actors, goals, objectives and modalities.

3. The U.S. and Allied response to extremists is conceptually-flawed due to a lack of understanding of its actors, goals and modalities.

4. The U.S. and Allied effort in Afghanistan, as currently conceived, shall fail.

5. One should not be surprised if, following the NATO summit, President Karzai were to disallow further troop augmentation!

6. One should not be surprised by a heightening of tensions along the Line of Control! (India and Pakistan)

7. One should not be surprised by talks ongoing between Taliban, AQ, and others, with the objective of circumnavigating the U.S. and Allied war plan! It must be AQ’s and Taliban’s objective to destabilize Pakistan and to draw a weakened Pakistan into open confrontation with India, which will draw in the Big Powers. Coordinated efforts between JAM, Hezbollah, Hamas, Taliban, AQ are, as yet, not fully appreciated in their signal impact on the conduct of the war.

8. Key Points 4/5/6/7 should be expected to bring to bear considerable lateral pressures on US intentions. Bearing in mind that the objective of U.S. efforts is not Afghanistan, but Pakistan. And that heightening tensions in South Asia will further deflect from Iraq and the ME, which will please the Iranians and displease the Israelis. An Israel, displeased by the shift in emphasis on the war, plays to JAM advantage. Further discreet JAM-IDF cooperation will help deflect from heightening tensions with the al-Maliki Government and the Obama Administration. A further deterioration of Iraqi-Iranian relations will also play to advantage in this regard.

9. In the current climate, domestic and international, the U.S. and Allied Powers fail to deflect the threat perception emanating from the possibility of a “Greater War.” While not yet blowing, the Winds of War are gathering beyond the graying horizon. Let us not, in years to come, have to answer, “Why America Slept.”

PART TWO: Expanding on the Key Points

Key Point #1. The War in Iraq is lost, with the United States military effort having failed to achieve its stated political objectives.

In announcing “A New Way Forward,” 10 January 2007, President Bush stated: “to take the necessary military measures in order to improve the security situation to the point of enabling the PM to advance the necessary political measures in order to further the process of national reconciliation.”

National reconciliation remains as elusive in Iraq in 2009, as it was in 2007. Fundamental differences of opinion persist between Iraq’s constituent ethnic groups, Shia, Sunni, Kurd and Christian, in regards to Governance, what I have defined as the Iraq Question. While elections have taken place in January 2009, bearing in mind that less than half the electorate voted, along sectarian lines, provincial councils remain to be seated, pending the outcome of electoral challenges. Furthermore, at the Provincial level, we are confronting serious challenges to both, civilian and military authority, while the allocation of governmental function between Baghdad and the provinces remains unresolved. Both, a resolution to oil-revenue-sharing and the future status of Kirkuk will help tear Iraq apart. At Kirkuk, the Prime Minister was well advised to replace the 4th Division, mostly comprised of Kurds, with an all-Arab Division under Iraqi command! There has, to date, been no follow-up to the December 2006 national reconciliation conference. There is as little a national reconciliation process in Iraq, as there is a Middle East peace process.

At the same time, while overall violence affecting U.S. military and security personnel is down, and well below the radar of an American public turning away from the war, the overall security situation affecting Iraqis remains fragile, and that is understating it. As the National Command Authority has conceded, the level of violence in Iraq today is where it was following Iraq Liberation Day, 9 April 2003, and the insurgency gaining momentum that summer. Spring and Summer 2003 did not witness a secure, nor safe Iraq. Nor do we, this date, witness a safe and secure Iraq, where an improved security situation would lend itself to national reconciliation. Iraq’s military and security forces are just about capable to manage the water’s currents which, at any given time, anywhere across the country, can erupt in an avalanche of destruction. It is with that threat scenario in mind that I continue to argue in favor of clear lines of communications across the battlefield’s divide so that, together, we can work against those who remain intent on taking advantage of the weakness displayed at the center of Iraqi Governance.

As a senior commander of the Jaish-al-Mehdi, I support the ambitious take on a safe and secure Iraq, as perpetuation of this impression is the basis for your gracious exit. It is on that basis, that I was able to get JAM to go along with the entente, as embraced by the Bush Administration. But, let us be clear of the actual situation on the ground, as it will impact the post-redeployment political stage.

While having failed to achieve its stated political objectives, and I dare challenge the contention that you have achieved the military objective of securing Iraq, the modalities of U.S. tactical success in 2007 have been displaced. Additional U.S. forces, inserted into theatre under the surge, have been withdrawn. Further troop reductions are about to commence, with the British exit to be completed by end of April. Although overall violence is down sharply, attacks abound all around. Baghdad, Basra, Mosul are not what you would call safe cities by regional standards. At last, the National Command Authority has conceded that only half of Diyala province is under control. As the Sons of Iraq, whose willingness to turn against AQ/M greatly contributed to the perception of General Petraeus’s short-lived success, have begun to turn on the U.S. Already prompting a first revision to the 30 June 2009 timetable for withdrawal of ALL combat forces. Will you please, prior to announcing once again, Mission Accomplished, get your facts straight and at least strive for a perception in line with reality?

Of the three legs, on the basis of which the previous Administration could sell to the American people the chimera of success, only the third leg, the alignment of Jaish-al-Mehdi with the U.S. Army, remains standing. And truth be told, I take great pride in having helped bring that alignment about. It has been the privilege of my life to help the United States High Command do so. But, with the passage of time, as conditions change, the ability to preserve the entente will erode further.

Let there be no doubt. Were it not for the U.S. troop presence between the Sons of Iraq, whom you armed, and the Jaish-al-Mehdi, those weapons would now be in use. And they will be used, eventually, as I maintain that both the “Iraqi Civil War” and the “Great Iraqi Revolution” are inevitable. It is with that point in mind, that I cannot sufficiently strongly urge upon you to make every effort to reclaim the weapons you distributed. A robust DD&R programme, will be critical to maintaining peace, when, on the basis of the current planning, all U.S. forces shall be withdrawn by 31 December 2011.

Please note, the President’s plan is dependent on the SOFA referendum in summer and the national elections in December. I expect us to sail through both, but the sailing will not prove easy, yet again demonstrating the fraying in bilateral relations. It will prove more contentious than the SOFA talks. As the PM will have to play the nationalist card, contra-U.S.

I remain concerned that Iraqis have not come to the conclusion that the long end of the barrel of a gun does not lend itself to the long-term advance of political objectives. The Hezbollah and Hamas experiences would seem to speak to the contrary. At the same time, U.S. efforts to quarantine the war, i.e. to sanitize violence, have failed to shock and awe Iraqis into realizing the futility of armed struggle. That is where I continue to advocate for “Total War.” All-out conflagration. Given the choice between a drawn-out low intensity conflict, which remains inconclusive, versus a short, brutal but decisive war, one, which clears the deck for a new beginning out of the abyss of total destruction, (Berlin 1945 comes to mind) I must attest my strong support for the latter.

It is, within this context, that I respectfully object to the very goal of General Petraeus’ counter-insurgency doctrine, which strives to separate the populus from the war fighting parties. Separating the populus from the war, will unduly prolong the war. It is my contention that, just as the threat of nuclear annihilation kept the lid on conventional East-West confrontation during the Cold War, so the threat perception emanating from outright annihilation will shorten, not prolong, asymmetrical wars. That is why I disagree with the approach now to be taken by the U.S. towards the Taliban. Don’t cultivate moderate elements of the Taliban. Instead, cultivate the most extreme elements of the Taliban, amenable to cultivating under terms you can live with, and then let them cultivate those uncultivateable for you. That, usually, results in their elimination.

Key Point #2. The U.S. and Allied response to Political Islam, awakening in countries around the world, is conceptually flawed due to a lack of understanding of its actors, goals, objectives and modalities.

What we are witnessing in the Islamic world is the awakening of the disenfranchised lower classes. Disenfranchised in economic, political and religious terms. The mass revolutionary potential of the awakening lower classes being turned inward, against corrupt political elites, rather than outward, against us. And, yet, we support corrupt political elites against the awakening lower classes, yearning to be rid of the tyrant’s yoke. And we wonder why we find ourselves in the crossfire?

My political friends, in both the Sunni insurgency and among the Shia militias, have warmly received the promise of the positive signal inherent in President Obama’s enlightened approach to their Freedom Struggle. Informed by both, the Indonesian and Kenyan Liberation struggles, the President’s quest, not to reform a corrupt system, but to build anew, incidentally abroad as at home, is encouraging. The Peoples of the World are encouraged to find that the President does not consider an enlightened humanism to define American exceptionalism, but the world's destiny.

It is time to match the President’s rhetoric with goal-oriented action.

If the President truly considers “society” to be at the center of Governance, and not “government,” following in the tradition of Thomas Paine, then let us firmly put the “Rights of Man” on the front burner of a new American Foreign Policy. That presupposes a pro-democracy agenda, based on human rights and civil liberty, in advance of the normative, without regard for the expeditious. The message equally directed to Iran, PDRK and Sudan, as to PR China, Saudi Arabia, Egypt.

The President does hold within his grasp the possibility to win the “Wider War,” by transforming the Middle East and, in transforming the Middle East, by transforming the World, with the objective of forging an “Alliance of Democracies,” concomitant to which reform of the United Nations becomes feasible. That presupposes a re-alignment of America’s allies, friends and partners, a re-alignment predicated on a re-assessment of the U.S. national interest.

Key Point #3. The U.S. and Allied response to extremists is conceptually-flawed due to a lack of understanding of its actors, goals and modalities.

Extremists are outflanked at the far-end, not the near end, just as reconciliation comes at the far-end of conflagration, not the near end. As General Odierno impressed upon me on 18 January 2006: “From a United States perspective, it's about who threatens the United States. And so we have terrorists that are internal to the United States that are dealt with in certain ways, there are extremists that have an ideology that is a network that we're concerned about because of the long duration of that. And so we have to deal with these extremist networks both from a lethal and non-lethal way. I guess you have to get into the technical definitions between the two. The bottom line is who threatens the safety of our citizens in the United States and as well as our allies, and we will deal with it based on that.”

I am a firm believer in the Schwab Doctrine, which holds that contrary to “the foe,” who must be annihilated due to insurmountable hostilities, “the enemy” can be won over as an ally in advancing the tactical, while keeping the strategic in abeyance. As I stated on 29 November 2005: “Enlisting nationalist elements of the insurgency into the domestic political process seems like the best hope to improve Iraq's internal security situation and thence make possible the withdrawal of "all foreign forces" and -- the ultimate goal -- the restoration of full sovereignty. There are obvious preconditions for their inclusion in the process -- renunciation of terrorism, cessation of violence and the call for the withdrawal of "all foreign forces" from Iraq, including non-Iraqi insurgents. The insurgents must be further engaged in a discussion of "legitimate" versus "illegitimate" use of violence as part of "national liberation" from what they perceive to be a foreign occupation.”

In aligning Jaish-al-Mehdi and the U.S. Army, I was guided by the Schwab Doctrine. However, contrary to the U.S. approach, to be taken with Taliban, I did not seek to co-opt moderate forces, but radical forces, nor did I endeavor to separate the rank and file from the leadership. From the beginning, I considered it a folly to make an effort to separate the Sadrist Movement from al-Sadr. I cautioned against it, and counter-acted any effort in that direction. Likewise, it is a folly to think that you will succeed in separating the Taliban from Mullah Omar.

At the same time, we must realize that there will be forces irreconcilable to reconciliation. The soft approach of counter-insurgency reaches its limits where it runs into the abyss of he, who wants to destroy you. Those forces must be vanquished. I prefer those elements not amenable to reconciliation to be taken out from within, rather than for me to do have to do so. Let us draw for those amenable to reconciliation clear cut rules of permissible behavior, which are pre-requisites for admission to the international community. This will require a serious dialogue between the civilizations, from which may result a separation between East and West. Personally, I find no fault in accepting that, in Iraq, Christians play a subordinated role to Muslims. On the understanding that our Muslim brothers and sisters fully appreciate that, in Europe, they play a subordinated role to us, Christians. Their religious symbols go up over the skyline of Berlin, the moment the cross is flown over Istanbul. On Islam, the West has permitted the East to subordinate the majority to the minority. It is time to reverse course. While not primal to the “Wider War,” there is a much denied religious component to the conflict.

Reciprocal arrangements based on understanding and conciliation must be the basis for an informed dialogue, rather than unilateral submission to minority rule. Both, the International Year of Reconciliation, 2009, and the International Year of Rapprochement between Civilizations, 2010, provide welcome venues. But, do let us strive for honesty in the dialogue and realize that we are confronting the outer limits of multi-culturalism. The Global Village may not be as harmonious/ deemed desirable as some may have wished for.

Furthermore, I disagree with the U.S. contention, as yet again pronounced by AMB Wood, that al-Qaeda is irredeemable. I have personally worked hard to drive a wedge between AQ/M and AQ/ Central on account of my firm position that those Iraqi nationals, members of AQ/M, too, will eventually have to be integrated into the political process. What else do you propose to do with them?

I have consistently argued with both Sheikh al-Sadr and the PM to engage AQ/M, with the objective of getting AQ/M to separate from AQ/C. To little avail, as my approach is, as yet, a no-go.

However, I do not believe that in Afghanistan you will get Taliban to move against AQ. What would make you think they would, given that on many doctrinal issues Taliban is even more orthodox than AQ and certainly, between the two, the caliber of leadership is the greater in AQ. And they’re all inter-related. They will continue to be guided by common interest in destabilizing Pakistan. Any effort in Afghanistan, which addresses Taliban, but does not address AQ, is doomed to failure! Clearly, bin-Laden and Dr. Zawahiri will remain personas non-grata, awaiting Camry. But, a modus of infiltration must be found to co-opt the younger AQ leadership. Do you, honestly, believe in an all-out U.S. battlefield victory over AQ? I do not.

When co-opting “the enemy,” keeping the strategic in abeyance, while furthering advance of the tactical, we must remain mindful that, eventually, the strategic must be addressed. The strategic answer to the Iraq Question, for example, remains elusive and that concerns me, greatly, as the denouement of U.S. active engagement in Iraq comes underway. In advance of the tactical in 2007, the U.S. has made too many promises on the strategic, which are not being kept. Those IOUs will come due.

Key Point #9. In the current climate, domestic and international, the U.S. and Allied Powers fail to deflect the threat perception emanating from the specter of a “GREATER WAR.” A war, which involves the Big Powers. While not yet blowing, the Winds of War are gathering beyond the graying horizon. Let us not, in years to come, have to answer, “Why America Slept.”

The failure of the U.S. in Iraq and Afghanistan to achieve military and political objectives is disquieting. How do your adversaries view the lack of success: Russia and PR China?

Russia and PR China are challenging the United States on both political and military fronts. The U.S. does not have the financial means to redress the Russian and Chinese military build-up. Only time will tell, if a weakened U.S. will be able to muster the political will to counter Russia and China.

Post Cold-War confrontation, from the Balkans onward, have seen First World forces pitted against Third World forces. And where, one should ask, is the contest? What could at best be described as post-Colonial police action is taking the Armed Forces of the United States to the brink of collapse. While battlefield success remains elusive. Following a ten-year NATO engagement in Kosovo, the Kosovo Question remains unresolved. And NATO plans to resole the Afghanistan Question in how many years? It should be understood that it will take upward of a decade to bring Afghan military and security forces up to levels now under consideration by the Administration. Will you have the political, economic and military staying power for the long haul?

The United States Army, which was supposed to stop the Russians at the Fulda Gap, is unable to win against what to some degree are juvenile delinquents on the streets of Third World cities. Already, the two-war doctrine is under review. And you do expect to meet the growing Russian and Chinese challenge how? And I won’t even mention PDRK.

The United States lacks capacity to confront an assertive PR China and a resurgent Russia. Depleted public coffers will severely restrict big-ticket military procurement for years to come. As a result, the United States lacks capacity and intent to stay engaged, globally, to the extent to which an over-ambitious global agenda finds you engaged. Failing on the field of battle, weakened in the corridors of diplomacy, the economy collapsed. I do not dare draw historic comparisons.


The Administration is in the process of affecting a major strategic adjustment in the “Larger War,” moving the front from Iraq to Afghanistan. I am not a proponent of this move. The national U.S. interest is at stake in Iraq, because of continued U.S. reliance on affordable oil, Iraq’s potential juxtaposition in the ME and potential positioning contra Iran. Combining Saudi oil and Egypt’s level of sophistication, as I impress upon my Iraqi friends, Iraq could be the ME powerhouse.

Vital U.S. national interests are not at stake in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is a failed State and, like many States around the world, will remain a failed State for years to come. Please note, nearly all Muslim republics of the former USSR have now turned authoritarian, with President Aliyev having pushed through a flawed referendum on 18 March 2009, declaring himself President for Life. Failure in Afghanistan will not adversely impact the United States. Just as loosing Afghanistan to the Soviets for a decade, nor loosing Afghanistan to the Taliban for a decade, did not adversely impact the United States.

And yet, shortly, the public affairs machinery will endeavor to convince the American people that holding this town or that mountain will be essential to the U.S., just as they were made to believe that Danang was essential. Danang was lost, costing around 3,000 lives, the whole of Vietnam was lost, costing 58,000 lives, did it adversely impact the United States.

It is regrettable that on war, rhetoric too often comes at the expense of fact. In times of war, the most insignificant of factors may assume great import. But only as a result of the fallacy of false prophecy, against which prudent counsel must caution. To paraphrase Sun, Wing may be essential to the taking of Wang, which may be essential to the taking of Wong. But, have we really determined that the taking of Wong is essential?

Afghanistan is important, because we will not want to permit her, yet again, to provide safe heaven to AQ. But, if not welcome in Afghanistan, AQ will move to Sudan, Somalia, or a host of other countries. Therefore, if we do believe AQ to remain a direct threat to the U.S., let us make Afghanistan the decisive battleground, with the objective of AQ’s outright annihilation. That raises, again, the issue of capacity and intent. It also raises serious questions about strategy.

Moreover, as I am given to understand, at this point, U.S. engagement in Afghanistan is not based on Afghanistan qua se, but with the objective of deflecting from the potential threat perception of Pakistan’s collapse and potential Indo-Pak confrontation. Within this context, the stationing of a deterrent force/ rapid deployment force is sensible.

I feel compelled to caution against continued efforts to particularize President Karzai, to the extent of wanting to isolate him. He will retain the reigns of power, through summer. That, if he so chooses, will enable him to counter any NATO decision to augment Allied troop levels, to be taken at the Strassburg-Kehl summit in April, which leaves the Administration’s Afghanistan plan vulnerable. Off course both, lacking support for Member States of NATO to share the burden of troop augmentation and a possible disavowal of troop augmentation by President Karzai, could give the Administration a way out, if such a fallback option were deemed desirable. Certainly it would help pave the way for the smaller footprint, which is in the works, with an eye on Pakistan.

Furthermore, President Karzai’s own efforts to reach out to the Taliban could yield a grand bargain: a National Reconciliation Government, with Taliban participation, which calls for the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan. That would spell the end to any Western stabilization effort in South Asia.

I have previously expanded on AQ’s covert action in Kashmir. This activity should be seen integral to the “Larger War,” which to widen into a “Greater War,” plays to the advantage of AQ and the Taliban.

The United States is over-extended, militarily and politically. Not having succeeded in Iraq, you’re about to apply the lessons in Afghanistan, which did not work in Iraq. And in Iraq, you’re just confronting incompetence. In Afghanistan, you’re confronting corruption and criminality on top of incompetence. And an enemy even more cunning, if not outright treacherous, than the Sunni insurgent or Shia militia in Iraq.

Meanwhile, U.S. commitments are being widened: among other, to DARFUR. Sure, we all know what’s going on there. And we rightly would want to stop it. But, are we clear in our minds that Darfur will result in a surrogate showdown with PR China and will you have the fortitude to see it through, given potential political, economic and military costs?

With the ICC indictment of GEN Bashir a line has now been drawn. In my view, Sudan, more than Afghanistan, will test the mettle of the Obama Administration, both the normative commitment of its foreign policy and its crisp execution. The U.S.-Soviet showdown in Lebanon in 1982 would seem to come to mind. Will you permit the impression to grow among your African friends that you uphold international law, when it comes to Saddam, but not when it comes to Bashir? On the other hand, the AU and Arab League position on executing the indictment is at best tentative. At the same time, the Sudan Question extends well beyond General Bashir.

Will you have the nerve to stand up to PR China, just as you need them to finance your economic recovery?


Too distracted are you by counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism to keep an eye on Russia and PR China. You can keep quiet about it, but the U.S. Navy engagement with the Chinese in the South China Sea was not confidence-inspiring. Just, as I find the lack of a response to the Russian military build-up not confidence-inspiring. Here you accede to Russian demands on the missile shield, all but conceding the extension of the near-near abroad to include the near abroad, widening the Russian security perimeter, or however you want to call it, while ostensibly forcing the Eastern Europeans to keep quiet about the sell-out, and how do the Russians thank you? Resetting the button must have a different meaning to them.

I am not for a minute advocating for the United States to disengage. That would be a disaster. But, re-evaluate your priorities on the basis of (vital) national interest, upon which is dependent clear definitions of objectives over goals and fit your modalities to match your objectives, while building up your capacity. Not every crisis calls for U.S. action. That presupposes clarity of purpose, on the basis of which you must allocate the resources necessary to effect a major U.S. military expansion. Or, when that war standard has been hoisted, you will find yourself coming out short. Following 9/11, President Bush led you into battle on the cheap. Time is approaching for President Obama to mobilize the American people to the “Greater War” looming.

PART THREE: War Progress Report (Iraq)

“The American war effort, if not yet collapsing, can no longer be won. The United States, on its own, is in no position to achieve the stated war objectives!… One would hope that the Americans will realize that the surge is failing to meet its stated military and political objectives and realize why it is failing. Further, one would hope for them to realize that these shortcomings both, military and political, cannot, in the near-term, be redressed to change the situation, strategically. That in order to avoid outright defeat the strategy must be adjusted to reflect the emerging military and political realities confronting the U.S. war effort, in theatre and at home.”

So my statement on 19 July 2007.

In my recommendations to Sheikh al-Sadr, all approved, but for my proposition to reach out to AQ/M, I go on to state: “We should further make it clear that we fully support the calls for an end to sectarian killings, the disarmament of militias and an equitable distribution of oil-revenue. Towards that end, our recommendations to adjust the strategy should be:

I. Demilitarize the strategy, adjusted: even though reconciliation comes at the far end of conflagration and the argument can be made that, perhaps, violence has, not yet, been at the level necessary to get people to their senses, lack of capacity and intent will make a sustainable military effort, aimed at helping facilitate a political solution, unrealistic.

II. Reverse surge. Set deadlines for immediate re-deployment (within 180 days, i.e. spring 2008) and near-term withdrawal. (within 540 days, i.e. 9 April 2009) Replace departing troops with militias and insurgents, amenable to political compromise and re-configuration under government control either, at the level of the central government or the provincial level. Encourage recall of eligible soldiers of the Iraqi Army, in particular Specialized Republican Guard.”

On the eve of Iraq Liberation Day 2009, I am pleased to find the United States and the Sadrist Movement on the same page, in advance of earliest possible restoration of Iraqi sovereignty and self-governance. As I stated on 1 February 2007: “The Battle for Baghdad (is underway). … public order (is being restored,) even imposed, as called for by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. The vicious cycle of increasing street violence eroding public confidence in the young democratic system (is being) broken. However, differences of opinion persist as to how to (continue to) wage the battle and how to determine success, both in military and political terms. Who will make the call, when and based on what? And how to position the Battle for Baghdad within the larger denouement of the Iraq question?

Although of import to winning the war in Iraq, success or failure in the Battle for Baghdad will not, on its own prove decisive in changing the winds of war. Yet, again, as they have done throughout, America’s fighting sons and daughters may achieve a tactical objective, i.e. to secure the capital, while failing to achieve the larger strategic objective, i.e. to secure the country. Moreover, the battle’s significance to the war on terror(ism) is overdrawn, just as is inflated the threat perception emanating from failure. Even at this stage of the war its link to terror(ism) is, at best, tenuous.”

I shall leave it to your considered judgment to match my statement against the current situation on the ground. Need I say more?


In my statement of 1 February 2007, I go on to state: “In advancing a new trinity of “clear, hold, rebuild,” General Petraeus has taken heed of historic lessons learned in the Philippines, Yemen and Malaya. Without a political framework, however, being advanced parallel to the military cause of action now embarked upon, the Iraq question stands the risk of becoming ever more militarized. Although national reconciliation comes at the far-end of conflagration, making the parties to the conflict amenable to a negotiated settlement based on compromise, we are all agreed that there is no military solution.

The battle royal to come may well be a case study for Clausewitz’s call for head-on confrontation versus Sun Tzu’s admonition to exercise restraint. Where General Petraeus is manifestly guided by an astute understanding of Clausewitz, especially his experiences during the Napoleonic wars, calling for highly mobile forces in hot posse pursuit of the enemy, Sunni insurgents and Shia militia, as already in evidence in al-Sadr’s orders to the Mehdi Army to stand down, should be expected to follow Sun Tzu who, on the basis of his experience during the “Warring States” period, (453-221 B.C.) and in anti-thesis to Clausewitz, calls for victory without battle. Bearing in mind that a protracted war, marked by stalemate on the battlefield, one, which in the words of CJCS is defined as “not being won, not being lost,” plays against the regular force, not the irregular one. Time favors the defender under ground, not the attacker above ground. The United States must win, the enemy just not loose.”

Times has run out on the United States Army in Iraq. Or, is there anyone in this room who truly believes you have won?

As I go on to state: “General Petraeus may have set himself up for defeat, given, inter alia, the manifest shortcomings in manpower, political will and time to see the plan through. The soldier/ per capita ratio is off, deployment falls short of what he called for, the window of opportunity is narrow. As a battle plan rarely survives first contact with the enemy, these constraints limit General Petraeus’s room for maneuver, adjustment. To work, all elements of the plan would have to come together, flawlessly, which presupposes a level of coordination/ cooperation with the Iraqis which, to date, has been found wanting. Moreover, the military outflanks the political, running the risk of proceeding independent thereof. Although, from a macro-theoretical perspective the Army’s new counter-insurgency manual, which the General helped write, is sound and will stand the test of history, in translating it into the war plan for the Battle for Baghdad, he may have failed to dissociate politics from strategy. Important the more, as counter-insurgency, house-to-house close-range big city combat, is not traditionally purview of the U.S. Army. Therefore, the Battle for Baghdad must be seen as a tactical gambit to regain the strategic initiative, a worthwhile albeit feasible gambit. But, a gambit. It must be appreciated as such.”

The gambit has not paid off. Americans and Iraqis are beginning to re-assess the cost-benefit of the surge, and the war at-large. A parting of the ways is underway. As I stated at the time: “While not yet a “political war,” the political and military components of the war effort run the risk of ending up on parallel tracks. It remains to be seen for how long, beyond the plan’s initial success, the Joint Chiefs and combatant commanders remain insulated from public criticism.

One of the main weaknesses in General Petraeus’ approach may lie in his dialectical method of presentation. Believing the political in follow-on to the military to form the basis on which to separate the populus from the insurgents, he seems to view war as neither “nothing but” a show of force nor “merely” a rational act of politics or policy. Given that in Iraq, however, the one tends to be a function of the other, could provide a conceptual flaw to be exploited by the other side.

What outcome, then, do we envision for the Battle for Baghdad? Banal, as it may sound, there are only two: victory or defeat. Success or failure. Success defined as establishing a security environment somewhere similar to that of Israel. Failure defined as anything but conclusive/ decisive, which either decimates/ eliminates the enemy, or makes him amenable to political compromise. To paraphrase General MacArthur, Given that the Battle for Baghdad, the war in Iraq, is a confrontation between regular versus irregular forces (developed vs. developing world) victory must be swift and sustainable to be decisive, with the objective of breaking enemy moral.”

I shall leave it to your considered judgment to determine whether that has happened. And yet, contrary to financial markets, in diplomatic life the perception is as often as important as the reality. And the general perception is one of tactical success in Iraq. One would hope for disengagement prior to tactical success being turned into open strategic defeat.


I am truly pleased to have lent a helping hand to the U.S. Army in aligning Jaish-al-Mehdi with U.S. interests on the basis of tactical synergies, while keeping the strategic in abeyance. But, not unlike a long-term debt, the strategic is coming due and that is, where the United States and Iraq will part ways.

As I state on 5 December 2007: “The progress being made by United States Armed Forces in the Battle for Baghdad, and beyond, upon which greatly depends progress in the larger War, is well known and may, I hope, be deemed satisfactory and encouraging to those who remain committed to a timely United States victory. It needs no further elucidation on this occasion, beyond GEN Odierno’s encouraging report.

JAM is an integral part of the U.S. Army’s success in Baghdad and now, beyond. I continue to maintain that somewhere between advance of “redeployment without replacement” and “non-interference by outside powers” creative diplomacy will find a compromise resolution to the Iraq Question, in advance of restoration of Iraqi sovereignty and self-governance. … I like to believe that, as I promised in January, we have given the U.S. Army grounds, on which to declare the troop surge “a success.” Yet, I must caution and remind everyone that JAM is going along with this ambitious take on Iraq’s political versus security situation, in order to facilitate the “redeployment without replacement,” not for the U.S.A. to dig in, further. JAM does not seek an immediate, nor uncoordinated withdrawal of U.S. forces, nor do we consider such a move in the best interest of Iraq, presupposing that they will be withdrawn, eventually. … At the same time, depth and duration of the “smashing success” will depend on the al-Maliki Government’s ability to align the political track with the military track. I do not see that happening. And agree, with LGEN Odierno, that by summer (2008) we will have to adjust the strategy. And that adjustment will have to be based on a further demilitarization. What we are witnessing is the surge’s initial success, which, unless Shia militias and Sunni insurgents are engaged, politically, integral to national reconciliation in advance of national accord, will prove fleeting. Sustainability will depend on JAM’s continued cooperation and the next steps of both, the U.S. and Iraqi Governments.”

That’s what I said, then. And, that’s what I say now. And I conclude with my assessment of Iraqi military and security forces. As I sate on 29 November 2005: “By all assessments, the U.S. administration's estimate of 18-24 months to build up Iraqi security forces, especially the police, to necessary levels of numbers and competency is unrealistic. Against that background enlisting nationalist elements of the insurgency into the domestic political process seems like the best hope to improve Iraq's internal security situation and thence make possible the withdrawal of "all foreign forces" and -- the ultimate goal -- the restoration of full sovereignty.”

My assessment was as valid in 2005. As it was in 2007. As it is, today, in 2009. At the earliest, Iraq will be able to stand on her own feet: in 2018!

PART FOUR: The Iraq Question

The Iraq Question is best defined by the principles, political and religious, which are to govern the New Iraq. National accord remains elusive on both fronts.

What will be Iraq’s future between the secular and the religious? The answer to the one will provide guide and counsel to the other. With Iraq’s secular leadership ineffective, remaining quagmired in the nitty-gritty of superficial daily contentiousness, time has come for Iraq’s religious leadership to assert its legitimate role within the Iraqi body politic.

The question is not whether the Religious will assert itself over the political, but when, under what circumstances and to what avail. Whether, or not, in so doing the Iraqi religious leadership will operate independent of Iran, or in collaboration with Iran, shall depend on the role the United States will now play in the denouement of the War, through 31 December 2011. Will the U.S. effort be viewed as inimical to Shia interests, or in advance of Shia interests? The promise dimming with every move by the United States, perceived as limiting the role of the Religious in the post-Liberation political order of Iraq.

As yet, I contend, an enlightened Iraqi Shia leadership may assert the Religious in advance of the Democratic. There also remains the fleeting promise of a post-Liberation Iraq asserting herself over Iran. Bilateral relations will continue to deteriorate both, on account of Iran’s continued meddling in Iraq’s internal affairs, as well as on account of Iran ever more strongly asserting sovereignty over three key oil facilities in the Shatt-al-Arab. These two acts on the part of Iran alone should help position Iraq against Iran in any future showdown, even where from the Western perspective Iran‘s nuclear aspirations may be the more important casus belli. It being my contention that if Iran is to be confronted, then let this confrontation come sooner, rather than later. The Iraqi leadership will have to look to both, her Northern front, and her Western front. While a coming together of Iranians and Kurds is difficult for some to fathom, strategic planning must redress the threat perception of the one over the other.

To avert an Islamic revolution a la Iranian mode presupposes a willingness to embrace the radical, with the objective of deflecting the extremist. While Sharia law will be the law of the land, it may be permitted to exist in unison with the Constitution, as is.

The good news is that, prima face, the controversies confronting Iraq are more political and secular than religious. That means they are susceptible to a negotiated political settlement. The religious being introduced to rally support, stiffen the resistance and to provide an elevated platform for resistance and a jihadi framework for the pursuit of the political. Common cause and an alliance among the religious leaders across the East-West, Islamic-Christian, divide will further help move those political pieces of the insurgency/ militia closer to a resolution. Within this context, we should avail ourselves of the venues provided by the International Year of Reconciliation in 2009 and the International Year of Rapprochement between Civilizations in 2010.

This will take a coordinated effort, but must be done. Without this kind of political movement, to reach out beyond the great West-East divide, we will continue to fail in the “Larger War,” or in other words, while a necessary part of the equation, the military is not sufficient without the political agreement to see the process through to a conclusion.

The bad news is that the approach taken to date continues to fail to appreciate the actors, their objectives, goals and modalities. To date, we have not grasped an Iraqi National Awakening. We continue to call for Iraqi reconciliation, failing to realize that Iraqis do not lack reconciliation, they lack conciliation as, following Colonial rule, the tribes, which make up Iraq, have never been granted the free-will exercise to determine their national destiny.

Iraqis must be permitted to determine for themselves the formation of the post-Liberation nation-State. If a possible plebiscite leads to partition, then so be it. Neither Sheikh al-Sadr, nor the PM, share my position on a plebiscite.

Further, we fail to appreciate that the Iraq Question is driven by the quest of the disenfranchised for power, a quest which, as yet, could enable an enlightened leadership to unite Shia, Sunni, Kurd and Christian in an “Alliance of Reason,” with the religious a means to advance the political. A revolution, turned inward, as opposed to outward. That is why I continue to argue in favor of cross-sectarian talks with the leadership of the insurgency and the militia on a political platform to be advanced integral to the Movement for the National Liberation of Iraq from Foreign Occupation. These talks must include all of Iraq’s religious and ethnic minorities.

Yet, while the liberation struggle is political and about power, one must not fail to appreciate that the ultima ratio is religious in nature, i. e. to push the religious into the public sphere. As Iraq’s religious leadership is looking for an increased role for the religious in the public life of Iraq, there is a strong basis for common ground with religious fundamentalists the world over, all yearning to come out of under the yoke of an ill-guided secularism, which is destroying Christian faith-based societies, as much as it is destroying Islamic faith-based societies by advancing atheism and materialism at the expense of the divine.

I support Pope Benedict’s call for an “increased Christian role in the affairs of Europe” and, in so doing, Islamists should feel encouraged to stake out a claim for an increased Islamic role in the affairs of the Levant. Formal approach should be made to the Holy See. We should entertain a leading role for the Holy See in East-West Inter-Religious Dialogue.

As we prepare to lay the groundwork for a post-Liberation political agenda to redress the Iraq Question, I would like to reference past efforts of former U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan. Programmatically, we should support a “New Contract for All Iraqis:” to be based on Hope, Tolerance, Nonviolence, Conciliation and Unity. The contract must acknowledge the operant dynamic/ linkage between improved security, withdrawal of foreign forces, regular and irregular, non-interference by outside powers, restoration of sovereignty and self-governance. Non-interference by outside powers, linked to the withdrawal of all foreign forces, regular and irregular, may prove the most realistic political objective the U.S. can now achieve.

Operationally, we should advance two processes: 1.) Internal to Iraq: we should jumpstart the National Reconciliation Process: A National Reconciliation (All Party) Conference, to which all stakeholders in the Iraqi body politic are to be invited both, non-governmental and governmental, should be called for. To be preceded by the long overdue Summit of Militia and Insurgency Leaders. It is in fusing the two, where long-term, I hold out hope for stabilizing Iraq’s security situation, post-liberation.

An Eminent Persons Group, under the patronage of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, with its members drawn from the political and religious leadership of all constituent groups of the Iraqi body politic, subscribing to national accord, including Christians, could help steer post-Conference follow-up and follow-on.

Regrettably, the al-Maliki government’s approach to national reconciliation is wrong both, in conceptual and procedural terms. Within this context, I would, again, like to set forth three principles: 1.) Reconciliation takes place external to government, at the nexus of the non-governmental and governmental levels of action. The approach taken, whereby one thinks that some meaningless piece of legislation, even where it to be passed by Parliament, the Oil Law and the Kirkuk referendum come to mind, will help realign extremists is erroneous. What is needed is a process, external to government, in which extremists get to advance their political objectives, upon renunciation of violence, with the objective of their integration into the body politic. That is, certainly, the lesson of the African experience.

2.) I have previously stated that extremists are outflanked on the far-end, not the near-end and 3.) that reconciliation comes at the far end of conflagration. At the point, when the parties to the conflict are either dead, or realize the futility of armed struggle in advance of political objectives. This, however, comes only at the far-end of exhaustion, or utter brutality. Or, granted, when the civilian population is turned. Neither of which is the case in Iraq.

To date, militias and insurgents are being talked about, rather than talked to. That must change. A Summit of Militia Leaders should be convened as a necessary antecedent to the national reconciliation conference. In particular, the summit should consider (1.) a permanent cessation of the armed struggle; (2.) permanent integration of eligible elements of the insurgency and the militia into Iraqi military and security forces, with possible placement at the regional level. The American National Guard experience would seem to lend guide and counsel. Promises made to insurgents and militias on this count are being broken; (3.) a robust DD&R programme, including a weapons-collection/ buy-back programme and (public works) jobs program. Too many of the men I served with are idling and idleness breeds mischievousness.; (4.) national accord on “the vision for the New Iraq,” i.e. the principles, political and religious, which are to govern the New Iraq, including and in particular, the role of the religious in Iraq’s public sphere; (5.) restoration of Iraqi sovereignty and self-governance, integral to the Movement for the National Liberation of Iraq from Foreign Occupation, in advance of the early withdrawal of all foreign forces from Iraqi territory, regular and irregular; (6.) Shia EMPOWERMENT on the basis of majority rule, with safeguards for minority rights; (7.) a general and blanket amnesty, available to ALL Iraqi nationals, willing to lay down their arms and to join the political process.

I realize that tentative progress is being made in some of these areas, what remains lacking is the overall chapeau. That’s where the national reconciliation process is paramount. I further realize that some of the proposed agenda items may prove difficult for you to fathom. But, the agenda must be all-inclusive and non-discriminatory.

The summit must be seen integral to the political track, in advance of the process for national reconciliation. In that, it builds on the variable operant dynamics at play between restoration of public order, self-governance, Iraqi sovereignty and national accord on the New and Democratic Iraq. In advance of national accord, which is envisioned to emanate at the far-end of the national reconciliation process, the national reconciliation conference must advance agreement on the principles, political and religious, which are to govern the New Iraq. All Iraqi citizens, willing to sign onto the national accord and to lay down their arms, shall be eligible for a general and blanket amnesty. Economic incentives, including pensions, integral to a multi-faceted Demobilization, Decommissioning and Rehabilitation of militia and insurgent fighters will have to be made available.

2.) External to Iraq, we should look to convening an international conference in support of Iraq’s internal efforts, (!) and for said purpose alone, could be envisioned to address Iraq's juxtaposition within the Middle East, security assurances and economic development. The Compact, adjusted accordingly, may prove a viable venue. The sole purpose of the conference to augment the process, internal to Iraq. And yet, legitimate concerns of Iraq's neighbors could be addressed, perhaps better within the larger international framework, rather than merely within the regional. The Iraq Question must not be internationalized, but internalized. Iraq for the Iraqis.

The conference would advance the operant dynamic/ linkage between withdrawal of all foreign forces, regular and irregular, and non-interference by outside powers, into which U.S. redeployment/ withdrawal can be absorbed. Getting Iran/ Syria to commit not to interfere in the internal affairs of Iraq may be among the few long-term objectives, U.S. diplomacy can achieve, short-term. Within this context, the potential role of UN peacekeeping, post 31 December 2011, an International Stabilization Force, should be looked at.

I would like to affirm: Iraq’s military and security forces shall not be ready, on 1 January 2012, to assume sole responsibility for Iraq’s security. As we all know, it is unrealistic to assume that all U.S. forces shall be withdrawn on hat date. I cannot sufficiently stress the need for an interim-International Force, under U.N/ Arab League auspices.

I would also, at this time, like to draw your attention to an anti-U.S.-backlash. You do not want to find yourself unprepared. There should be no question about the jubilation of the masses, in January 2012, as they file into Camp Victory. You do not, then, want them to turn on the U.S. Embassy compound.

A Contact Group, to be comprised of the UN, EU, OIC, Arab League, the P-5, relevant and interested powers, could be envisioned to help steer conference follow-up and follow-on. Post-Liberation, only a small fingerprint will make continued outside involvement palatable. And yet, as Iraq will remain unable to govern self, through the decade to come, this small fingerprint is essential to avoid outright collapse under variable internal political and economic strains.

An Eminent Persons Group internal to Iraq and a Contact Group external to Iraq could provide a chapeau for the dual-track framework, with the objective of helping advance maximum coordination and harmonization of security in all its aspects. If successful, the operant dynamic, inherent in the dual-track framework, could be considered for the convening of a Conference for Security and Cooperation in the Middle East (CSCME) to explore vistas, venues and modalities to address and redress the gamut of political-military, economic and social issues, confronting the ME. Such a bold initiative, however, would require willingness to proceed on Palestinian Statehood. I see great potential for post-Liberation Iraqi diplomacy on this one. There is, in advance of Iraq’s leading ME role, benefit to be derived from linking Iraq’s liberation struggle to the quest for Palestinian statehood. We should position Shia Iraq in the forefront of an awakening pan-Arab nationalism. We should support the effort and aim to link it up to a larger ME Conference a la CSCME.

Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Farewell to the United States Army

5 December 2007

Farewell to the United States Army

In the name of God,
the beneficent, the merciful.
Praise be to the Lord of the
Universe who has created us and
made us into tribes and nations
That we may know each other, not that
we may despise each other.
If the enemy incline towards peace, do
thou also incline towards peace, and
trust God, for the Lord is the one that
heareth and knoweth all things.
And the servants of God,
Most gracious are those who walk on
the Earth in humility, and when we
address them, we say 'PEACE.'

My Brothers:

I have the high honor and distinct privilege to advise that, effective 2400hours, midnight, Baghdad time, this date, I am standing down as Senior Commander of the Jaish-al-Mehdi Political-Military Affairs and Special Operations Command. As a new senior commander assumes command, I may hope for the “entente cordiale” in play between the Jaish-al-Mehdi and the United States Army to carry forward, in advance of common objectives and goals. I avail myself of this occasion to thank the United States Military High Command for the cooperative spirit, in which we were permitted to evolve a difficult relationship over the course of the year gone by.

Upon assuming command on the Feast of Saint Thomas, (28 January 2007) I stated:

“It shall be the overall objective of my mission, while in Iraq, serving the noble cause of an Iraq, whole and free, to build an “entente cordiale” between Jaish-al-Mahdi and the United States Army and to advance political cooperation between the Sadrist Movement and the United States Government, in advance of the Prime Minister's Security Plan for Baghdad, the War in Iraq, and beyond, with the objective of advancing a phased withdrawal of all foreign forces from Iraqi territory, in furtherance of early restoration of Iraqi sovereignty and self-governance. Moreover, my cousins, I want it to be understood, clearly, that I am fully committed to help further the common cause of a timely victory in the Battle for Baghdad: Victory for JAM. Victory for the United States Army, my Brothers. Above all, Victory for Iraq and all Iraqis: Shia, Suni, Kurd and Christian. God be with Us.”

The objective met, my mission stands accomplished. The progress made best measured in the transformation of JAM from being identified by DoD as America’s Number One Enemy in Iraq, going into 2007, to the point, where, at this time, a “political arrangement” is being contemplated. Neither side on the great battlefield's divide having anticipated the war's magnitude, nor its duration. Nor, I like to think, has either, yet, realized that its cause has been transformed, if not, yet, its conduct.

In “Letter from Baghdad,” dated 8 February 2007, and, on my behalf, read by MG Galen Jackman, U.S.A., at the dinner, hosted that date by the President of the National Bible Association in honor of my wife, Mrs. Francis S. Drath, widow of the late COL Francis S. Drath, U.S.A., and a Member of the White House Commission on Remembrance, I state:

“At last, the Hoyatoleslam Moqtadir al-Sadar’s potentially constructive role is beginning to be recognized. Extremists are outflanked on the far end, not the near end. Delineating definitions between “extremists” versus “terrorists,” as General Odierno and I discussed on 18 January 2006, will prove critical in this regard. As General Odierno stated: “When we look at it from a United States perspective, it's about who threatens the United States. … I guess you have to get into the technical definitions between the two. The bottom line is who threatens the safety of our citizens in the United States and as well as our allies, and we will deal with it based on that.” … The Hoyatoleslam supports the Prime Minister’s security plan for Baghdad, with the objective of bringing Iraq’s militias under the rule of law. An improving security situation will enable him to address the future of the Mehdi Army, constructively and innovatively. Meanwhile, the Mehdi Army shall not, on their initiative, engage the Iraqi Army, Iraqi security forces, U.S. or Coalition forces. Those who do may be deemed outside the rule of law and may be dealt with, accordingly.”

A point, upon which I expand in my statement to the Foreign Relations Committee of the United States Senate, dated 1 February 2007:

“An improving security situation will, in the fullness of time, enable the Hoyatoleslam to address the future of the Mehdi Army, constructively and innovatively. While the issue should be pushed, it need not be pressed. As it may prove difficult for the Hoyatoleslam, if alone on religious grounds, to disband the Mehdi Army, we may have to look at innovative approaches to “deactivation” vs. “decommissioning” vs. “demobilization.” A constructive ambiguity on language versus clarity on action may provide necessary room for maneuver. The writing on the walls has been noted.”

The progress being made by United States Armed Forces in the Battle for Baghdad, and beyond, upon which greatly depends progress in the larger War, is well known and may, I hope, be deemed satisfactory and encouraging to those who remain committed to a timely United States victory. It needs no further elucidation on this occasion, beyond GEN Odierno’s encouraging report. The favorable public statements, pertaining to JAM’s constructive role in said regard, made by RADM Smith, U.S.N., are fully appreciated.

Among leading American journalists, Fareed Zakaria stands nearly alone in catching onto the battlefield re-alignment underway. Writing in Newsweek, edition of 12 November 2007, he states: “More U.S. troops have meant better security. But they are not at the heart of current improvements in Iraq. The key is that Petraeus has been willing to do what no American official has until now: accept Iraq for what it is and not what Washington wants it to be. Searching for a stable order, Petraeus has allied himself with whoever, within reason, could produce that order.”

A key argument for my recommendation to enlist Sunni insurgents and Shia militias. As I state in “Wooing the Insurgents,” UPI Outside View Commentary, 29 November 2005: “By all assessments, the U.S. Administration’s estimate of 18-24 months to build up Iraqi security forces, especially the police, to necessary levels of numbers and competency is unrealistic. Against that background, enlisting nationalist elements of the insurgency into the domestic political process seems like the best hope to improve Iraq’s internal security situation and thence make possible the withdrawal of all foreign forces and --- the ultimate goal --- the restoration of full sovereignty.”

Mr. Zakaria goes on to state: “Petraeus has even been somewhat accommodating of the Sadrists. In Baghdad, U.S. forces now primarily target "rogue" Mahdi Army militants. The more mainstream Sadrists have been tacitly allowed to operate in several Shiite areas.”

An important fact, first revealed by Roland Flamini, writing in World Politics Watch, on 4 March 2007: “U.S. troops in Baghdad have acquired some strange allies. As the United States establishes itself in the Iraqi capital's once no-go area of Sadr City, American soldiers find themselves sharing outposts with members of Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi army. … the reality is that Moqtada al-Sadr controls the area named after his father, and carefully selected members of the Mahdi Army have been deployed along side U.S. troops and the Iraqi army in a dozen locations, says Albrecht Gero Muth, a former adviser to Kofi Annan in Iraq who is now advising al-Sadr. The arrangement is unofficial, little publicized, but nonetheless real. Al-Sadr is believed not to be in full control of the Mahdi army, but the loyal faction has been ordered to cooperate with the U.S. military, and Muth says they are following orders -- at least so far.”

As I expand in my message to LGEN Odierno of 19 June 2007:

“The military objective in Baghdad has not been achieved in the near-term and, with Iraq’s major population centers a thunder, will only be achieved with the ready influx of new forces. And those can only come from Shia militias and Sunni insurgents, willing to cooperate with the U.S.A. in advance of the BSP. We are in the second 90-day phase of the Battle for Baghdad, “180 Days and Counting,” and the pressure will be kept up on all fronts, with the objective of getting the U.S.A. to offer to JAM to fill the void being left behind in Baghdad, as the new offensive against AQ/M gains traction. … To the contrary of evolving thinking, at this stage of public opinion going against the surge, a visible battlefield victory is needed. JAM stands ready to help make this happen in Baghdad, in furtherance of the BSP, with the objective of advancing the political objectives, expanded upon in detail.”

And so we did. JAM is an integral part of the U.S.A.’s success in Baghdad and now, beyond. I continue to maintain that somewhere between advance of “redeployment without replacement” and “non-interference by outside powers” creative diplomacy will find a compromise resolution to the Iraq Question, in advance of restoration of Iraqi sovereignty and self-governance. Similar to the way, in which a formula was found in advance of the Hoyatoleslam’s call for “withdrawal” of foreign forces and the U.S. objective of an improving Iraqi security situation, advanced as a precondition for and function of “redeployment without replacement,” proving one man’s exclusive another man’s building block in advance of common objectives. The stronger the level of cooperation, integral to the “entente cordiale” in play since BSP inception, the stronger the need to deflect, in order to preserve the integrity of the Hoyatoleslam’s public posture on U.S. forces presence.

Standing down on the 250th anniversary of the Battle of Leuthen, (5 December 2007) in which another smaller Army outflanked the favored larger Army, I like to believe, I have delivered and shall consider my mission accomplished, I shall leave it to the experts at the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College at Fort Leavenworth and its Commanding General, LGEN William B. Caldwell, IV, U.S.A., to determine the efficacy of Sun versus Clausewitz, as embodied in the JAM Battle Plan versus the U.S.A. Battle Plan.

In conclusion:

1. Baghdad stabilized, the North being destabilized, the South destabilized/ but being stabilized, as set forth in the JAM dual-encirclement strategy. JAM talks with both, the U.K. and U.S. Military High Command on securing Basra progressing. JAM paying premium for U.S. and U.K. forces protection. JAM special operations units are, at this hour, active, in the Kurdish Autonomous Region. One unit in support of the Turkish offensive effort, another unit, in cooperation with BADR, in support of the defensive effort of the Regional Government, a third awaiting, which side, in the ongoing showdown, gains the upper hand. USAF aerial recon efforts have been noted. SIGINT monitoring is assumed. The “alleged” Turkish incursion of 1 December 2007 references within the context of established JAM practice. (“Operation Gleiwitz”) The objective being to get PKK to retaliate on Turkish territory which, at this time, would precipitate an open Turkish response. The window closing on offensive military operations, as winter is arriving early in the mountains.

2. As I promised, (“Between Failure and Success: The Baghdad Security Plan at the 180-Day Marker,” Right Truth, 22 August 2007) the report LGEN Odierno is sending through is positive, further permitting to advance the “redeployment without replacement,” which is underway. I continue to hold that it would be beneficial, as a sign of goodwill, to advance the schedule, and to wrap the redeployment in the 9 April 2008 observances.

3. It is said that JAM won the contest over BADR. I agree. It is said, because we have the better fighters. I disagree. To the extent that we have resolved outstanding issues with BADR it is due to better JAM leadership. BADR has the superior fighters, better trained/ equipped. More mature. They also have Iranian support. It is essential to connect the progress on the military track to the political track. The agreement of 6 October 2007 references. Inter-sectarian amalgamation will lend itself to advance of inter-sectarian alignment, in advance of national reconciliation, in furtherance of national accord. I remain concerned, medium-term, of adverse consequences, which could emanate from a potential new rift between SIIC/ Sadrist Movement and BADR/JAM. The threat perception emanating from JAM, potentially turning against BADR, is greater than the potential of JAM turning on U.S.A. For reasons, on which I have repeatedly expanded, the threat perception emanating from JAM ever openly turning on U.S.A. has been removed. I am counting on U.S.A.’s moderating influence on the JAM/ BADR dynamic, especially during the forthcoming transition from Hakim pere to Hakim fils.

4. JAM is credited with the decrease in sectarian violence. I agree! It is said that JAM opted to stand down under Iranian tutelage. I disagree. BADR is collaborating with the Iranians. Not JAM. Is it not recognized and appreciated that Sadrists rank among the most anti-Iranian?! An alliance with Iran is not the Hoyatoleslam’s preferred option for positioning post-Liberation Iraq. The determination for JAM to stand down was reached long before the purported decision by Iran to limit the extent to which she interferes in Iraq. I have expanded on this in detail.

5. I do not share the view that the Iranians have stopped SA/LW shipments to rogue Shia militia elements. We have just become better in taking them out. Rogue Shia militia elements remain under the operational command and control of specialized units of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran. They continue to pose a threat to Iraqis, U.S. and Iraqi military and security forces. JAM remains committed to taking them out. At this hour, JAM special operations units are targeting specialized units of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in retaliation for the indiscriminate bombing attack in Baghdad on 24 November 2007.

6. I like to believe that, as I promised in January, we have given the U.S.A. grounds, on which to declare the troop surge “a success.” Yet, I must caution and remind everyone that JAM is going along with this ambitious take on Iraq’s political versus security situation, in order to facilitate the “redeployment without replacement,” not for the U.S.A. to dig in, further. JAM does not seek an immediate, nor uncoordinated withdrawal of U.S. forces, nor do we consider such a move in the best interest of Iraq, presupposing that they will be withdrawn, eventually. I like to point out that the Hoyatoleslam is not personally on record as calling for an immediate withdrawal! At the same time, depth and duration of the “smashing success” will depend on the al-Maliki Government’s ability to align the political track with the military track. I do not see that happening. And agree, with LGEN Odierno that by summer we will have to adjust the strategy. And that adjustment will have to be based on a further demilitarization. What we are witnessing is the surge’s initial success, which, unless Shia militias and Sunni insurgents are engaged, politically, integral to national reconciliation in advance of national accord, will prove fleeting. Sustainability will depend on JAM’s continued cooperation and the next steps of both, the U.S. and Iraqi Governments. Within this context, the IRAQ SITUATION INTERIM REPORT (19 July 2007) references.

7. (!!!) Between those elements of JAM, who are being quietly integrated into the Iraqi Army and Security Forces, those elements of JAM who, loyal to the Hoyatoleslam, are stood down, and those, who, not loyal to the Hoyatoleslam, are being dispensed with, JAM is being co-opted, compromised and equalized/ neutralized, the order of 29 August 2007 being extended, indefinitely, presupposing continued full cooperation with the U.S.A. The Hoyatoleslam appreciates that for JAM to lay down their arms is a prerequisite for the Sadrist Movement’s evolving political role in a post-Liberation Iraq. JAM is disquieted by talk of long-term basing rights and Anbar Awakening talking about getting even with JAM.

I avail myself of this occasion to renew to the United States Military High Command assurances of my continued highest consideration.

And now, by your leave, I shall sign off to “Thank my God!”

Tout est bien fini.

(Signed) Albrecht Gero Muth

Farewell to the Jaish-al-Mehdi

JAM Political-Military Affairs and Special Operations Command

The Senior Commander

Forward Operations Base, Northern Iraq

25 Dhu l’-Qa’da 1428 (5 December 2007)



Farewell to the Jaish-al-Mehdi

In the name of Allah,
the beneficent, the merciful.
Praise be to the Lord of the
Universe who has created us and
made us into tribes and nations
That we may know each other, not that
we may despise each other.
If the enemy incline towards peace, do
thou also incline towards peace, and
trust God, for the Lord is the one that
heareth and knoweth all things.
And the servants of God,
Most gracious are those who walk on
the Earth in humility, and when we
address them, we say 'PEACE.'

My Cousins:

Tonight marks my last roll-call with you, the sun having set on our journey. Our mission completed, if not yet accomplished. When the sun rises anew in the East, and the trumpet beckons your return to the field of battle, I shall no longer be among you. But, I shall always be with you. For you rest assured to be often on my mind, and in my heart, always.

It has been the privilege of my life, this year, to serve alongside you, the Iraqi Patriot. Your vigor, your zeal, your commitment to duty, honor, country, a source of near unending joy and inspiration. Not unlike citizen-soldiers the world over, the men of the Jaish-al-Mehdi bear the brunt of battle and have the scars to prove it. In your heart, you know that Iraqis do not kill Iraqis. In your mind, you know that renunciation of the use of violence is a mandatory pre-requisite for inclusion in a general and blanket amnesty to be afforded all Iraqis, willing to lay down their arms and to join the democratic process. It will be up to the soul to reconcile the two.

When the history of the current conflict is written one day, in the distant future, history lending certainty to the hour’s ambiguity, no matter what may, as yet, lie ahead for you on the battlefield, know that the Army of the Mehdi will be remembered for abiding by the age-old code of soldiering. You do not question the Geneva Conventions. You are not savages, but a part of the new order of Iraq. A liberation army, whose fighting sons are embedded in the hearts and souls of the occupied, moves beyond the reach of the occupier.

And in my dreams, wherever I may be, your journey to freedom continuing, ever nearer to God, this aging militiaman, graying, the tenuousness of his step giving away the struggle past, the shadows lengthening all about, will take pride in the comfort of knowing that he stood with you, the progressive forces for peace. And I shall permit my mind to wander. Wander back to the Iraqi Patriot, as you stand your ground against overwhelming odds. And I shall quietly say to myself, Tout est bien fini, je ne regrette rien.

As a new senior commander assumes command, it is to him that we must first commit our troth. It is comforting a reassurance for me to know that you will serve him with honor and fidelity, just as you served me the months gone by. For, together, you must take up, where we leave off.

Upon assuming command on the Feast of Saint Thomas, (28 January 2007) I stated:

“It shall be the overall objective of my mission, while in Iraq, serving the noble cause of an Iraq, whole and free, to build an “entente cordiale” between Jaish-al-Mahdi and the United States Army and to advance political cooperation between the Sadrist Movement and the United States Government, in advance of the Prime Minister's Security Plan for Baghdad, the War in Iraq, and beyond, with the objective of advancing a phased withdrawal of all foreign forces from Iraqi territory, in furtherance of early restoration of Iraqi sovereignty and self-governance. Moreover, my cousins, I want it to be understood, clearly, that I am fully committed to help further the common cause of a timely victory in the Battle for Baghdad: Victory for JAM. Victory for the United States Army, my Brothers. Above all, Victory for Iraq and all Iraqis: Shia, Suni, Kurd and Christian. God be with Us.”

I like to hold that we have achieved our objective. The progress being made in the Battle for Baghdad, and beyond, upon which greatly depends progress in the larger War and the liberation of Iraq from foreign occupation, is well known and may, I hope, be deemed satisfactory and encouraging to those who remain committed to an early restoration of Iraqi sovereignty and self-governance. It needs no further elucidation on this occasion. At last, the operant dynamic at work between “an improving security situation,” “withdrawal of all foreign forces,” and “national reconciliation” is being appreciated. The Hoyatoleslam’s constructive role in advance of national accord recognized. Over time, an improving security situation, withdrawal of all foreign forces and national reconciliation will enable him to address the future of the Jaish-al-Mehdi, constructively and innovatively.

The Hoyatoleslam stands for Peace. The Jaish-al-Mehdi stands for Peace.

The Hoyatoleslam is Iraq and Iraq is the Hoyatoleslam. In front of him marches Iraq. Behind him marches Iraq. In him marches Iraq.

One People, One Country, One God.

Denouement of the Iraq Question pivots as much on liberation from foreign occupation, as empowerment of the disenfranchised. That’s where national liberation and civil rights connect. The Hoyatoleslam’s progressive message to all Iraqis, Shia, Sunni, Kurd and Christian, being one of Conciliation, Nonviolence and Tolerance, in furtherance of Liberation and Empowerment, in advance of National Unity.

Standing down on the 250th anniversary of the Battle of Leuthen, (5 December 2007) in which another smaller Army outflanked the favored larger Army, I like to believe, we have delivered. Neither side on the great battlefield's divide having anticipated the war's magnitude, nor its duration. Nor, I like to think, has either, yet, realized that its cause has been transformed, if not, yet, its conduct. As in other wars, forever recorded on history's golden scroll of honor, both sides pray to God, and each invokes His aid against the other. But, do we expect both prayers to be answered? Can they? I like to think, the prayer of neither can be answered fully. The Almighty has His own purposes. ‘Woe unto the world because of offenses; for it must needs be that offenses come, but woe to that man by whom the offense cometh.’

And now, by your leave, I shall sign off to “Thank my God!”

Tout est bien fini.

(Signed) Sheikh Ali al-Muthaba

Friday, October 19, 2007

CONVERSATIONS WITH SHEIK ALI AL-MUTHABA, Part III

Voice of Iraq Exclusive
جميـــع حقـوق الطبع والنشر محفوظة لصوت العراق /
Copyright © 2000-2007 Sotaliraq.com - All rights reserved

CONVERSATIONS WITH SHEIK ALI AL-MUTHABA

This is the third in a three-part series of articles, written for Voice of Iraq by Andreas Bartels, a German journalist and novelist, detailing the work of the JAM Political-Military Affairs and Special Operations Command and its Senior Commander, Sheik Ali Al-Muthaba, aka Mr. Albrecht Gero Muth. The series is based on a number of interviews, conducted over the course of several days in September and October 2007. The first part (3rd October 2007) addresses itself on a proposed Summit of Militia Leaders, to be convened in furtherance of the process for national reconciliation, in advance of a national accord. The second part (10th October 2007) addresses itself on the ongoing transformation of JAM into an “Army for Peace,” the evolution of the Sadrist Movement into a Civil Rights Movement and Movement for the National Liberation of Iraq, and the Sadrist vision for the New and Democratic Iraq. The third part (17th October 2007) addresses itself on the Bagdad Security Plan, the Iraq War, the War on Terrorism and the Sadrist gameplan for the Road to National Awakening.

ON THE ROAD TO IRAQ’S NATIONAL AWAKENING
By Andreas Bartels
Sadr City, BAGDAD, Al-Iraq, 17th October 2007. In September 2007, General David Petraeus, the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, reports to the United States Congress on progress of the Bagdad Security Plan. In announcing a surge of U.S. forces in January 2007, in support of the plan, Mr. George W. Bush, the American President, defined the goal: “The most urgent priority for success in Iraq is security, especially in Baghdad. …When this happens, daily life will improve, Iraqis will gain confidence in their leaders, and the government will have the breathing space it needs to make progress in other critical areas.”

Spending time in Iraq, between spring and fall, I see no marked, let alone sustainable, improvements in “daily life.” Shops closed. Banks closed. Schools closed. Restaurant patrons on the edge. Electricity non-existent. Food and water shortages abound. With half the Cabinet posts vacant, the Government unable to function. None of the draft bills, critical to national reconciliation, having been agreed upon, Parliament recesses for a month. No draft bills to discuss, no agenda, no purpose in staying, Parliamentarians justify their break. Break from what, I wonder. Some improvements in security, here, less, there. Still, going out to fetch a pizza, a very questionable proposition. A movie? Hardly. Cross town? Never. And Iraqis are expected to have “confidence” in their leaders? I should think, not.
And, yet, with the surge already having lasted longer and more troops having been inserted than initially led on, the highly decorated American General Officer assures incredulous American lawmakers that U.S. and Iraqi military and security forces are making measurable progress, in some areas, in improving the security situation, while not in others, and that while the Iraqi Government’s failure to take advantage from improved security in furtherance of the political objectives, set forth in Congressionally-mandated benchmarks, set to measure success, is disappointing, the situation on the ground is, at once, sufficiently well advanced to permit the commencement of a phased “redeployment without replacement” of U.S. forces, to commence in December 2007 and to run through summer 2008, as it is too early to make a final determination as to what course of post-surge action to pursue, as a result of which further time, into March 2008, is requested. And granted.
“Durchhalteparolen?” Calls to stay the course. Berlin, 1945? I don’t know. But, listening to General Petraeus from my perch at Haji’s smoke joint across from the heavily fortified “Green Zone,” this aberration along the Babylonian skyline, just waiting to be stormed, I sense what the soldiers of the German sixth Army under General Paulus at Stalingrad must have felt during the last days of that ill-fated battle, listening to Herr Goebbels proclaim victory to be around the corner. And they claim history does not repeat itself.

The son and grandson of German officers, myself in the active reserves, I mean no disrespect to the highly-decorated General Officer. But, ambiguity in language, on top of overall obfuscation and evasiveness, continue to cloud what exactly the General said versus meant to say, and whether he meant what he did say. Proving that assessing success versus failure of the BSP depends on valuation of advances on objectives over goals as a function of cost/ benefit attached to implementing modalities.

Were success to be defined as advancing a goal other that the one originally suggested in an area other than the one originally targeted, while altogether failing to advance the larger objective then, in the words of Sheik Ali Al-Muthaba, the senior commander of the Political-Military Affairs and Special Operations Command of the Jaish-al-Mehdi, the military wing of the Sadrist Movement, “the surge could be called a smashing success.”

With the BSP failing its political objective to provide a breathing space for the central government, under an indecisive Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, to advance national reconciliation, the government being eroded between internal and external strife, while overall security has not improved, I ask the loquacious Sheik Ali about his most stunning assessment over breakfast at his fortified residence in Sadr City, as Naseer, the embodiment of the devoted manservant, always felt but not seen, busies himself to get his Master’s soft-boiled eggs just right. It is interesting to observe how communication between the two is nearly completely non-verbal.

“You will recall that I state, ‘Now that we are “agreed to call” the BSP a smashing success’, …” a grinning Sheik Ali responds, resplendent in white pants and red silken smoking jacket, as he spreads his Melba toast with Fartnum and Mason’s finest orange marmalade. An Anglophile in the finest Somerset Maugham tradition, “the Resident” would come to the learned mind, Sheik Ali’s routine calls for receipt, on a bi-weekly basis, of what he calls his care package from London, sent along by friends at the Royal Overseas League.

“Well, Sheik Ali, is it, or is it not,” I press the point, not wanting to stress, too much, a contradiction in his public statements on the subject.

“My dear Andreas, contrary to civilian life, in times of war, as you will have learned from your distinguished grandfather, failure and success, defeat and victory, are not opposites, let alone flip sides of the coin,” he says, energetically, as he refreshes my demi-tasse of vanilla-scented Turkish coffee. Sheik Ali’s Turkish liaison officer, who joins us for part of an extended session to brief on Turkey’s cross-border shelling into the Kurdish Autonomous Region, had it shipped from Ankara. “But, rather stages on a continuum, keeping one in near perpetual animated suspension of finding the ambiguity of the hour resolve itself in historic certainty. That, however, requires time and detachment, neither of which we have on the battlefield.”
“The security situation has not improved, significantly,” I retort, not permitting him to get away with customary obfuscation, “certainly not in the perception of the public. There is no civic life, neither the Government nor the Iraqi State are functioning. The military track, almost exclusively shouldered by the Americans, outruns the political track, to the point, where the Iraqi political leadership now openly acknowledges that national reconciliation is unattainable. And you speak of success,” I assert myself.

“Success defines as much a point in time, as it defines a process. In determining success versus failure of any undertaking we must always value the road traveled as a function of time, given the obstacles placed in our way.”

“What do you mean,” I inquire, not quite certain whether I am failing to appreciate the profundity of Sheik Ali’s statement, or catching on to the skilled tactician’s diplospeak.

“I would not for a moment want to recommend Bagdad as a great tourist destination. Not yet. But, in criticizing the lack of manifest progress in key areas, foremost the inability of the Government to provide basic social services to the people of Iraq, employment, education, sanitation, health care, above all, security, you mention the collapse of the Government’s political agenda, let us look to the silver lining,” he retorts, visibly eager to change the subject.

“Where?”

“In the ongoing battlefield re-alignment which, if permitted to be carried to term, in changing the battle’s cause will change its operant dynamic. In record time, JAM has been transformed from America’s ‘number one enemy’ to ‘an ally’ in restoring law and order to Iraq. The U.S. Army’s success in Bagdad in reigning in Al-Qaeda Mesopotamia and specialized units of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, targeting U.S. and Iraqi military and security forces, is also the success of JAM. Proving, as Professor George Schwab of City College of New York, a leading American state theoretician, states, today’s ‘enemy,’ unlike ‘the foe,’ who must be destroyed, can be an ally in “advance of the tactical,” even where, for now, “agreement on the strategic” must be kept in abeyance.”

Sheik Ali joyfully refers to the President’s address of 13 September 2007, in which, seconding General Petraeus’s determination that the surge has been a success and, with security said to be improving, Mr. Bush endorses phased and limited troop cuts, by summer 2008, to restore pre-surge forces levels.

“General Petraeus also recommends that in December we begin transitioning to the next phase of our strategy in Iraq,” states Mr. Bush. “As terrorists are defeated, civil society takes root and the Iraqis assume more control over their own security, our mission in Iraq will evolve. Over time, our troops will shift from leading operations, to partnering with Iraqi forces, and eventually to over watching these forces,” Mr. Bush continues.

“Redeployment without replacement, one of our key objectives is being met. A ‘smashing success.’ No need to gloat,” Sheik Ali smiles, a sense of quiet accomplishment reflected in the hand drawn inward, as he glances at overnight dispatches, sent in from the various JAM commands.

“JAM and the U.S. Army have taken each other’s measure, realizing that only together can we win. So victory has to be defined in a way, which makes it palatable to both parties. JAM will claim, the Americans are leaving, because they were defeated. The Americans will claim, because the job has been done. History will sort it all out. Remember Napoleon’s return/ retreat from Moscow. The one city, as your grandfather always pointed out, none of us ever took. Not the French. Nor the Germans. Was Napoleon returning, retreating, redeploying? The Russian campaign marked by the success of reaching Moscow, or the failure to hold Moscow? Failure or success? Victory or defeat? What does it really mean? Over time? As today’s victory turns into tomorrow’s defeat, and today’s defeat sets the stage for tomorrow’s victory. Is it not all in the mode of thinking, expressed in words, and to control the one is to define the other. In the end, the people believe what they want to believe and read in the papers.”

By proclaiming a ‘return on success,’ which makes troop cuts possible, and stating that “the more successful we are, the more American troops can return home,” the President underscores, Sheik Ali asserts, the efficacy of approach taken by JAM in support of BSP, in advance of improved security, as conducive to an early withdrawal of foreign forces. “It will remain incumbent upon JAM to maintain the level of cooperation with the United States Army towards that end.”

The United States Army stands assured of JAM’s continued full cooperation in advance of the report, which General Odierno will transmit to Washington in November. “The report will be positive,” Sheik Ali assures.

Continued JAM cooperation with the United States Army, beyond the six-month time frame, originally given in the order of 29 August 2007 for JAM to seize military operations, is expected to impact positively upon the President’s evolving thinking on how, medium-term, to adjust the strategy to the emerging military and political realities on the ground. “We have favorably noted the U.S. Army’s cooperation with JAM in Western Bagdad, and beyond Bagdad, and have indicated our preparedness to extend the order and to expand the level of military and political cooperation.”
Sheik Ali grudgingly acknowledges a certain politicization of discourse on the military conduct of the war, but dismisses undue particularization as ill-informed on account of the political being indissoluble from the military. “We like to think that the political can be dissociated from the military and, perhaps, in war, one may want to strive in that direction. But, in the end, it’s the military, which serves the political and not the other way around, and that changes the equation, does it not,” he quizzes me while, true to a certain autocratic streak, not awaiting an answer.
“We can live with an ambitious reading of the situation on the ground, we even support such ambition, because BSP success, real or perceived and, given the ‘Fog of War,’ who is to say what’s real or perceived, will provide the basis for a graceful ‘re-deployment without replacement’ by summer 2008, with a gradual phase-out through April 2009, with a residual force into 2010/2012.”

Sadrists, he continues, do not seek an immediate, nor precipitous withdrawal of U.S. forces, nor even consider it desirable, presupposing assurances that they will be withdrawn, eventually. Sheik Ali discourages unnecessary talk about a “long-term security arrangement” as disquieting to Iraqi nationalists.

“The surge remains a hotchpotch of tactics, rather than sound strategy based on the reality of the Iraqi body politic,” he asserts. “It’s a chimera, make believe. There is no real progress here. No real perspective. The issue is no longer how to win, but how to avoid outright defeat. At last, that reality is beginning to sink in. President Bush’s desire to play for time so that the war effort not collapse on his watch, runs along with our need to play for time, because, to some extent, in some areas, we are simply not ready for the government takeover. The stalemate, which defines the war effort, at this point in time, unfortunately, plays to advantage of key constituencies, external and internal to Iraq.”

Sheik Ali calls on Americans “to appreciate that although of import to winning the war in Iraq, success or failure in the Battle for Bagdad will not, on its own, prove decisive in changing the winds of war. The effort must be expanded to the provinces and that can only be accomplished, together, in cooperation with Shia militias and Sunni insurgency.”

Sheik Ali questions, whether either Americans or Iraqis have time and capacity left to wage the war. “I am concerned what happens, when we catch on.” He welcomes the change in attitude on the part of the U.S. Government to enlist extremists. The U.S. Army’s willingness and ability to enlist Shia militias and Sunni insurgent groups in the defense of Iraq is the singular most significant development to emanate from BSP success, he asserts.

“Extremists are outflanked at the far-end, not the near-end. As again in evidence in the Memorandum of Agreement of 6 October 2007, reached between the Hoyatoleslam Moqtadir al-Sadar and Dr. Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, in which the two leaders set forth a series of principles for coordinated direct action, with the goal of reigning in rogue Shia militia elements.”

The approach now taken mirrors the one, which Sheik Ali first outlined in 2005 and which forms the basis for JAM’s ongoing efforts within the Ninneveh process. As he wrote in “Wooing the insurgents,” UPI Outside View Commentary, 29 November 2005: “Enlisting nationalist elements of the insurgency into the domestic political process seems like the best hope to improve Iraq’s internal security situation and thence make possible the withdrawal of “all foreign forces” and ---the ultimate goal--- the restoration of full sovereignty.”

“As yet, we must connect the unity efforts on the Shia side to the unity efforts on the Sunni side, while connecting the military track to a political track. Intra-sectarian amalgamation will lend itself to inter-sectarian alignment, in advance of common objectives and goals on a broad range of issues, where positions converge and mutual interest, the survival of Iraq, intersects.”

Sheik Ali points out that the Hoyatoleslam welcomes an increased UN political role in Iraq and hopes for the new French diplomacy to lend support to ongoing efforts to jumpstart the non-existent process for national reconciliation, external to government, at the nexus between the governmental and non-governmental, in furtherance of a national accord, to which insurgents and militia, alike, can subscribe to.

“It is within this context that the Summit of Militia Leaders, envisioned by the Hoyatoleslam, takes on added importance as a necessary antecedent to the national reconciliation conference,” Sheik Ali asserts. “At the summit, militia and insurgent leaders should agree to an interim cessation of hostilities, with the objective of creating the political climate for conciliation, in which advance work on the agenda for the national reconciliation conference can proceed. Militia and insurgency should be enlisted to help enforce the interim ceasefire, with the objective of improving the overall security situation. JAM stands ready to assist in this effort.”

As he reflects on the wider war beyond Iraq, Sheik Ali calls for creative thinking as to what to do with AQ/M in the long-term “JAM is fully committed to confronting AQ/M head on and our cooperation in this regard, as in evidence in ongoing special operations, where we have, in part, provided actionable battlefield intel to the Americans, may be counted on,” he states.

And yet, he does not believe that, not unlike Shia militias and Sunni insurgency, AQ/M will be defeated on the battlefield, alone. “The resolution is to be found in the realm of the political. I firmly believe that AQ/M must be engaged along lines similar to those, which warrant engagement of militias and insurgents. Unfortunately, I have no takers for my proposition in this regard.”

“What are you proposing, Sheik Ali,” I quiz him one night, as, against the security detail’s expressed concerns, we take a long after dinner walk down the Tigris, the veil of the afternoon’s evaporating rain bouncing off a half moon, immersing Iraq’s ancient Capital in semi-illumination.

“A wedge must be driven between those elements of AQ/M, who are Iraqi nationals versus those who are not, those willing to lay down their arms and to join the democratic process and those not willing. That could enable us to drive a wedge internal to AQ/M and between AQ/M and AQ/Central, especially should an AQ/M, re-configured, be eligible for participation in the post-Liberation political process.”

“A political role for Al-Qaeda,” I mutter in disbelief.
“I do not see what fault line, other than Iraqi versus non-Iraqi, can be drawn, integral to national reconciliation,” states Sheik Ali.

He calls for those members of AQ/M, nationals of Iraq, willing to lay down their arms and to join the democratic process, to be eligible for the general and blanket amnesty which, following national accord, will have to be available to all Iraqis. Decrying the lack of progress on amnesty, Sheik Ali stresses its import integral to successful post-national accord Demobilization, Decommissioning and Rehabilitation of Combatants.

“Would getting AQ/M to split from AQ/Central not constitute a strategic defeat for AQ/Central? And could this not help our juxtaposition in the larger war?”
In the end, he states, AQ/Central shall be defeated, when a new generation of AQ leaders will realize the futility of armed struggle in advance of political goals. Asked whether he is serious about a future political role for AQ he deflects by referring to the efforts of Mr. Hamid Karzai, the President of Afghanistan. “Look to what President Karzai is attempting to do with the Taliban to bring stability to Afghanistan. Do we really believe we are going to outgun AQ? They do have the home advantage.”

Sheik Ali declines to confirm persistent rumors that he has met with Abu-Ayeeb al-Masri, the AQ/M leader, but acknowledges that he is in discreet contact with Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri, the number two AQ Leader.

“I am not proposing to take these chaps to the Club for dinner. I am proposing to find out whether it’s feasible and desirable to get the one to break from the other. We will have Osama’s head the day one of his closest brethren realizes it no longer serves a purpose to the Movement. Isn’t that how it worked with Judas?”

Sheik Ali states that as part of the “entente cordiale” in play between JAM and the United States Army since BSP inception, JAM will continue, quietly, to help the U.S. Army put on the fig-leaf of success, as everything must be done to deflect away from the U.S. Army. The closer the level of cooperation, the stronger the need to deflect, he argues.

Although JAM offensive military operations have been frozen, special operations, in particular, integral to JAM’s dual-encirclement strategy, continue unabated. The dual-encirclement strategy calling for direct measures, with the objective of outflanking the Americans in Bagdad by de-stabilizing the Northern Kurdish and Southern Shia regions. “The greater the instability across country, the stronger the utility of JAM to the U.S. Army. Remember how Frederick the Great, at Leuthen, 250 years ago this coming 5th December, forced the Austrians to thin out, thereby giving the much smaller Prussian forces the opportunity of circumnavigation and attack from the rear,” Sheik Ali states, as ever his thinking steeped in historic analogies. “I am counting on the Turks and hope that on 5th December the Chorale of Leuthen, sung by the victorious Prussians, will become the Chorale of Babylon, sung by the victorious men of the Army of the Mehdi.”

Like the Prussians and the Austrians during the war of 1866, JAM and the U.S. Army have bigger enemies to fight, so he says. “The larger war is beyond the storm clouds gathering as, together, we are getting ready to take on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.”

Sadrists take strongest exception to specialized units of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, operating on Iraqi territory, in flagrant violation of Iraqi sovereignty and independence. “We were first, on 26 June 2007, in advising that specialized units of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran are openly operating in Southern Iraq. We do consider measures taken by specialized units of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran on Iraqi territory acts of terrorism!”
JAM continues to cooperate with U.S. and Iraqi military and security forces in eliminating specialized units of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran operating outside the law on the territory of Iraq! “It is with that in mind that, yet again, earlier this month we helped facilitate the U.S. strike against Iranian special forces in Sadr City, complicit in the abduction of five British nationals. And it is, with that in mind that we will help in providing the smoking gun: hard evidence of Iran arming rogue Shia militias against the U.S. Army,” Sheik Ali asserts.

“President Bush has indicated, privately, “a” willingness “to adjust” his war plan to reflect the emerging post-surge military and political realities,” Sheik Ali states. “Within this context, I like to think of the proposed “political arrangement” with the Hoyatolelsalm.”

Sheik Ali does not believe that now is the time to go wobbly on the President’s commitment to enlarge the strategic space for Democracy, not in Iraq, nor throughout the Middle East, but to enlist the Religious in its Advance! “He will gain the upper hand, who succeeds in advancing his own objectives in furtherance of the President’s objectives. A zero sum will prove untenable.”

Discussing the larger war another night with senior JAM combatant commanders and Iraqi General Staff officers, as well as his Turkish and Israeli liaison officers, Sheik Ali states, “The currents of change are sweeping all across the seven Seas, nowhere more forcefully as where the water seems the calmest.”

That night, dining alfresco on the terrace of “Villa Zarathustra,” Sheik Ali’s official residence in Sadr City, illuminated by torches, under a bedouin canapé-turned-tent, the clerestory of its nave proving a prominent spot for Sheik Ali’s insignia, the comforting sound of the Great Elector’s Cavalry March and other Prussian marches protruding from the darkened drawing room, we are also joined by a deputation of German Rightists, members of the “Patriotic Front New Germany,” an umbrella organization of German patriots. “One does what one can for the comrades,” Sheik Ali shrugs off my surprise.

“Let them get some field experience. It’s good to know German patriots in solidarity with Iraqi patriots. Together we stand,” he asserts in a mannerism reminiscent of another German leader, whose name escapes me for now. The leader of the group pressing the senior commander, whose exploits are beginning to gain him some standing among his peers in Germany, to revisit the invitation to address a forthcoming rally in Eastern Germany, which Sheik Ali turned down.

“For as long as German patriots are not wiling to make a clear break with nationalism and National Socialism, there is no place for me in the Movement,” he asserts, now at near full attention, cutting an elegant figure in his white mess dress, offset by black pants, as he relieves a white-gloved Naseer of a decanter of Berry Brothers and Rudd Claret. “Nothing wrong with Fascism, everything wrong with National Socialism,” he professes, as he passes the Cubans along. “There is no future in nationalism.”
I am inclined not to inquire into the dialectic, he is attempting, but can’t resist, the air lending itself to a new self-assertiveness. “Whatever is the difference between a patriot and a nationalist.”

“A patriot is someone, who loves his own country, a nationalist someone, who loves his country at the expense of someone else’s. I surrender myself in the one, abhor the other,” Sheik Ali retorts, briskly, visibly enjoying a fine glass of what he calls grape juice. Special dispensation, he assures.

Sheik Ali’s dinner parties have an air of the sacral, as if attending a solemn mass, choreographed to the finest detail, the mere culinary experience being elevated to the metaphysical, an occasion, not lost on those asked to join in its celebration. “With Iraqi streets awash in those, who have died and those about to die, all I can promise my men is that they’ll die on a full stomach. After the benediction. I consider it uncivilized to finish dinner, before the benediction. Or, for that matter, to die before the benediction.”

A tradition he picked up during a brief stint in the French Foreign Legion in 1984, I learn.

“Fascism defines a certain relationship between the State and the citizen, inclusive by vocation, broad in application, call it compassionate conservatism. A social contract based on no citizen left behind, cradle to grave. National Socialism denied all that to entire segments of our people. I cannot, by God, stand for that.”

“What about the Aryan race,” inquires one of his younger disciples, his eyes fixed on the leader.

“There you go again, comrade,” an irritated Sheik Ali chides his pupil, “get that whole set of vocabulary out of your mind, along with the underlying line of thinking. The New Germany shall not be based on race, but the true content of the German character, no matter what color skin. Germanism is to be based on duty, honor, country. Fortitude of character, the mind mitigated by the heart, in the soul revealed.”

“The German soul,” the Israeli liaison officer moans, semi-quietly.
“Nouri, the day German patriots permitted themselves to turn on German Jewry marked the beginning of the end. It has taken us 60 years to make our way back from that end and, still, the “Thousand Year Reich” endures, in a thousand years of shame. Yet, at last, we have you back, where you belong, in Berlin. And it’s good to have you back. All good.”

The comrades from Germany, unaware that Nouri was not only an Israeli of German parentage. but an IDF officer, show their astonishment.
“You tell the comrades, the day they are willing to embrace my Israeli, Turkish and African brothers as co-equals, Christian, Jew, Black, White, or Green, for that matter, the day they are willing to look forward, rather than backward, marks the day I’ll come to address them.”

Expanding on his vision, what he calls “My Journey,” Sheik Ali stresses the need to build bridges of understanding, cross-culturally, cross-ethnic, cross-religious, in advance of common objectives and goals. The movement, he asserts, must be positioned in the realm of the attainable, the feasible, rather than merely the desirable.
“Empowerment,” he exclaims, emphatically, visibly pleased with his bravura performance, the guests glued to their chairs. “Empowerment in advance of freedom and liberty, in all corners of the globe, with the Religious advancing the Democratic, will arise no sooner than moribund post-Colonial authoritarian regimes have been enabled to collapse. That will be our hour. Towards that end, the Global War may prove a necessary catalyst in transforming the post World War-II era of middle class accommodation, the same way that the Great War (1914-1918) led to the demise of the order of Vienna.” (1815)

“But does that not fly in the face of key tenets of the movement,” inquires one of the foot soldiers from Sachsen-Anhalt, who briefly sat ion the State Legislature for the Neo-Nazi Party.

“Your movement. Yesterday’s movement. Not mine. Tomorrow’s movement. To become palatable the Movement’s past and future must merge in the present and that necessitates a break with outdated approaches. We need new thinking. Just like our Iraqi cousins need new thinking. That’s why we are here. Remember, he who controls thinking controls action. We must redefine our actions within newly redefined terminology,” Sheik Ali states.

“In a way, Muth-Pasha, that’s what Kemal Atatuerk had to do,” interjects the Turkish Army liaison officer who, tall, light featured and extremely well-built, could just as well have passed for German. Born in Germany to a Turkish father and a German mother, Sheik Ali is fond of pointing to him as the embodiment of the type of new German, he sees central to Germany’s future. “The merging of the past and the future in the present. Very inspired.”

As we retire to the candle-lit drawing room for after-dinner white port, under the ever watchful eyes of Sheik Ali’s Mehdi storm troopers, he makes fleeting comment of the Kalashnikovs, the famous General M. K. Kalashnikov serving on Mr. Muth’s Eminent Persons Group.

“To be won, the global war must be re-cast as a campaign for liberation and empowerment, with goal-oriented action to be based on advance of the political and the religious,” he continues. Towards that end, “the war’s objectives and goals must be re-defined, away from current thinking in terms of counter-terrorism, but rather in furtherance of an alliance for reason, its means to be found in the realm of the political, not the military.”

Sheik Ali regrets that “in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, we permitted ourselves to be rushed to arms, without a clear understanding of the enemy, the threats, the strategy. “As a result of not fully appreciating the threat, early success in Afghanistan permitted some to divert the effort to Iraq. Now, time is approaching to refocus on the larger conflict, beyond Iraq, the conflict’s ideological/ intellectual confrontation,” he states.

Sheik Ali sees historic parallels between the American War of Independence and the Iraqi Freedom Struggle. “As a nation borne of the strife to rid herself of the yoke of Colonial oppression, I would hope for consideration of the free will exercise of a free people,” he states. “As I look at the Iraqi militiaman of 2007, I see the American militiaman of 1776. Patriots, both.”

Sheik Ali states that “since the earliest days of the American Republic, the American citizen-soldier has been in the front lines of the Nation’s defense. Whether as an irregular, a militiaman, or a regular, a Guardsman, when duty called to defend freedom and liberty, he was there. His name forever indelibly inscribed on the Nation’s golden scroll of honor, the American Patriot rests assured of his revered place d’honneur in the Pantheon of American Greats.”

Sheik Ali states that, “as they travel along the road to self-discovery, Iraqis are testing whether the promise of 1776 holds true today, as it did, then. And whether Mr. Jefferson’s proposition to Americans that, as a “People, we are endowed by our Creator with certain inalienable Rights, that among these are, Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness,” manifests American exceptionalism, or the World’s destiny.”
Sheik Ali asserts that on the great issue of our day, Advance of Democracy, he stands with President Bush, when he assures us that the promise of 1776 holds true for all, who seek it.

“Today, on the far-flung battlefields of a Global War, that assertion is being challenged,” Sheik Ali states. “Nowhere more visibly, more brutally than on the streets of Iraq, where the few strive to deny the promise of 1776 to the many. Were it not for the American Patriot, alongside his Iraqi counterpart, to take up the challenge,” he continues.

“We are engaged in a great battle of that war: the Battle for Bagdad. A battle, which may prove as decisive for Iraqi Independence, as the Battle of Kings Mountain proved for American Independence,” he asserts.

“The American Patriot experience serves as an inspiration in transforming the Iraqi militia experience,” Sheik Ali says. “The objectives, for which many a militiaman and insurgent fights, are not, as some would have it, defined by the East-West difference,” he continues, “but spring from internal to the Middle East. If we look at the leadership of militias and insurgency, we find many a son of the upper classes, in open rebellion against their parents, the corruption and decadence, for which they stand. Islamic Revivalism, National Liberation, Empowerment, and Nationalism are currents in a sea of change.”

“Take, for example, the House of Saud, apart from the “Cosa Nostra” the world’s singular biggest criminal conspiracy,” Sheik Ali asserts, “financing, aiding and abetting, some of the most virulently militant Sunni fanatics, for no reason other than to maintain an unjust, but self-serving political order under the guise of protecting the faith. I say, heads off.”

A visibly energized Sheik Ali continues, “I am delighted that, at last, the 9/11 victims have a chance, in U.S. federal court, to follow the money trail, will say, into what bank accounts did the Bin-Laden Group transfer the cash, when cousin Osama was officially separated from the family? The financial dealings of the Bin-Ladens are inseparable from those of the Saudi Royal family. I want to state, for the record, that OBL has never been fully separated from the family, that, to this day, the family maintains discreet contact and that senior members of the Saudi Royal family are keyed in, with funds going from Saudi intelligence to Pakistani intelligence to keep him out of sight. That’s, why Osama continues to elude capture.”
With Nouri, the IDF liaison officer nodding in approval, Sheik Ali points to Saudi Arabia’s proxy war in Iraq as evidence for his assertion that corrupt Sunni regimes abuse the religious in advance of the political for purpose of self-preservation. “The House of Saud is not fighting for the faith, but survival. Before this conflict is over, they will be gone and, with them out of the picture, the Middle East will be transformed. The Saudis know that once Shiaism is enabled to bring a new enlightenment to the rule of Wahabiism, and Sunni autocracy in general, the summer residences in Marbella turn into permanent lodgings.”

As Naseer passes the port for yet another round of now spirited conversation, Lah’s gildedness beginning to yield to the silveriness of Rah, Ali Mohammed, Sheik Ali’s dapper aide-de-suite, announces a surprise visit by Mr. Ammar al-Hakim, eldest son of and heir-apparent to Dr. Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, the head of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, whose military wing, the BADR organization, was vying with Sheik Ali’s Mehdi Army for control of Basra. Until Dr. Hakim and Moqtadr al-Sadr, who are related by marriage, Mrs. Haim being an al-Sadr, opted to align in advance of the Iraqi national interest. While the agreement for the two militias not to attack each other anymore seems to be holding, sharp differences of positions persist on the future of Iraq, impeding Sheik Ali’s efforts to align the Sadrist Movement and SIIC in a power bloc, in advance of the Government of National Salvation.

“Ah, true to form, I can see, an evening of Christian fellowship,” the younger Mr. Hakim comments, mischievously, on the spirits permeating the air, as he extends a warm embrace to Sheik Ali.

“Salam aleikum, my Brother,” an excited Sheik Ali, visibly pleased by his high guest’s surprise visit, returns the warmth of sentiment. “Come, meet my guests. We were just discussing your father’s inspired efforts to advance Shia unity.”
“Always the flatterer. I can tell why Mookie likes you. You will go far, my Brother.”
“One man’s flatterer is another man’s devoted servant,” Sheik Ali replies, displaying his best version of humility. “Am I to be criticized for the Christian virtue of humility, when confronting greatness?”

“But, off course not,” Mr. Hakim retreats. “You are pleasing to the Greats. That is your strength. That’s why we keep you around.”

“In serviando consumor,” (Latin: In Serving, I consume myself) the Papist replies. “We have the saying that if Frederick the Great and Catherine the Great had made love, instead of war, the world would look different. The same can be said about the al-Hakims and the al-Sadr’s and Iraq,” Sheik Ali muses.

“Insha’ Allah, we’ll see,” a bemused young Mr. Hakim responds. “One step at a time. You are pushing too hard. It’s the Christian in you.”

“May I offer you some minted tea and Qatayef,” a solicitous Sheik Ali inquires, passing the silver tray of special Ramadanian treats, baked by Nasser’s mother for the great commander. Relinquishing his seat, he requests his honored guest to provide a most fascinating overview of the Iraqi situation.

“Iraq, … the reality and the vision, …,” a reflective Mr. Hakim contemplates his thoughts. “What is Iraq, … a country divided by a common religion. The complexity of the issues confronting us as much a function of the religious, as of the political. Advance of the one will lend guide to the other.”

Mr. Hakim expands on the SIIC vision for Iraq as an Islamic State, based on Shia empowerment, including Sharia law. He strongly supports a Federal structure for Iraq, even where that might lead to partition, an issue of great contention between the elder Mr. Hakim and Mr. al-Sadr.

“I share Sheik Ali’s view that a plebiscite may prove inevitable,” Mr. Hakim says. “Let Iraqis decide the future of Iraq. Why hold together, against will, what does not want to hold together?”

Mr. Hakim seems to share Sheik Ali’s sense of Iraq at the cusp of Revolution. “A revolution, perhaps, as significant to the advance of the human experience as the American and French Revolutions,” states Sheik Ali. A revolution, both agree, directed more inward than outward.

Both lament that to date we have not come to terms with the winds of change. “If only the West came to terms with the Shiaism and its position within the Middle East,” says Mr. Hakim. A sentiment echoed by Sheik Ali who states, “As Westerners, we come into the gage because of our support for corrupt and decadent regimes. I advocate in favor of our support for the revolutionary potential of the masses, contra the established order, which does not serve the people.”

A sentiment echoed by Mr. Hakim. It defies explanation that Sadrists, who are the non-establishment protagonists of the disenfranchised lower classes, do not favor revolution, as opposed to Mr. Hakim’s supporters, who are the status-quo protagonists of the established order and power elite, who do.

I am not able to discern if that’s because of a differential, which Sheik Ali and Mr. Hakim seem to draw between the political and religious dimensions of the Iraqi Revolution. Nor am I quire capable to discern, whether the two understand each other so well as to require few words to be spoken between them, or if they just speak past each other. A lot seems coded language.

“Let the Colonial order collapse, I say. With dignity. It has served its time,” Sheik Ali says. “Shia Iraq’s future relations with the West will be defined by whether it came about with Western support. Or, against. Just as mending the Shia-Sunni rift will depend, in part, on whether Shia Iraq will have come about with or without Sunni support.” A sentiment shared by the soft-spoken Mr. Hakim, who strikes me amazingly deferential to the German noble, who commands the situation.

Sheik Ali and Mr. Hakim are proud of the quiet progress being made between Sadrists and SIIC. They view this effort as central to helping bring about a new Parliamentary majority in advance of a new Government. Also, they view these efforts integral to Sheik Ali’s efforts of aligning both with the United States Army. These efforts having been in the forefront of Sheik Ali’s yearlong mission, since assuming command in January. Mr. Hakim and Sheik Ali are agreed on the need to expand on the agreement of 6 October 2007.

“It is incumbent on the Sadrist and SIIC leadership to seize the moment and to push for the convening of the Summit of Militia Leaders,” Sheik Ali asserts.
“First, we must get our own house in order and that presupposes political cooperation beyond the military. And your man is blocking that.”
“Because your father has unrealistic demands on him,” Sheik Ali retorts, the demeanor suddenly stern.

“Then deal with me.”

“I am,” Sheik Ali replies.

“Mookie is a dreamer. Always has been. Does he not see the camel’s back is broken?”
“Perhaps, but he also sees the camel’s nose rising under the bedouin’s tent. A dreamer. A visionary. A man of commitment. And his commitment is to Iraq. Unlike others, he never left Iraq for the safe-heaven, overseas.”

As the conversation gradually shifts to Iran, Sheik Ali impresses upon Mr. Hakim the need for Iraq to take a historic decision: to assert herself over Iran. “The reality. And the vision. Iraq is confronting enemies greater than self.”

“I am an Iraqi. I am a Shia. How am I to value the one over the other,” Mr. Hakim asks, as if searching for guidance from the German noble.

“Shia Iraq can only come to the fore, once the question of eminent domain with Iran has been settled,” Sheik Ali asserts. “And that should be done sooner rather than later. You must come out of under domination by your Iranian brothers. I am, not suggesting to annihilate them. Just put them in their place.”

“Shia Iraq has few natural allies,” Mr. Hakim responds. “You yourself are flirting with Tehran.”

“Nothing wrong with a good summer flirt. But come fall, and we are back home, we have bigger issues to tend to, do we not?”

“Perhaps.”

Nouri, the IDF liaison officer, quizzes Mr. Hakim on Iran’s nuclear intentions.
“As far as we can tell, it’s all make belief,” Mr. Hakim responds. “They are using the nuclear issue as a political tool to extract economic concessions. There is some serious internal power play at work on this one.”

“The West and Iraqis are tied in a single garment of mutuality, marked by the commonality of shared objectives and goals, in advance of common interests,” Sheik Ali interjects. “That holds especially true for the threat emanating to common interests from the Islamic Republic of Iran,” he states, pointing to a threat to Iraq, the Middle East, the world.

“I am a man of peace, but I shall not shrink from my responsibility to argue in favor of war, if then, in defense of the national interest, war is to be our destiny. While war must always be the last option it is, contrary to what others may believe, on occasion, not the worst option.”

Sheik Ali does not want to confirm that he is quietly advocating a widening of the war both, internal and external to Iraq. Internal to Iraq, against rogue Shia militias and Sunni insurgents, unwilling to lay down their arms and to join the democratic process, and contra AQ/M. External to Iraq, contra Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia and, whoever is found to intervene in the internal affairs of post-Liberation Iraq.

“I believe in a “total war concept,” the use of maximum force in advance of clear-cut and attainable strategic objectives in the near-term. Rather than application of proportional force in advance of the tactical in the long-term. My approach to warfare is not unlike my approach to cooking, Don’t fiddle with the food, make a meal of it. Given the option between a brutal, but short, swift and decisive conflagration versus a sanitized, but long, indecisive and inconclusive conflagration, I opt for the former.”

Sheik Ali does confirm that a new JAM command is being stood up along the Eastern frontier with Iran, in part to help with protecting Iraq against Iranian incursions or any post-U.S. attack invasion by Iranian forces. He voices his hope to coordinate this effort with BADR. “We are placing premium on U.S. and British Forces protection.”

“We have told Tehran to respect Iraqi sovereignty,” Mr. Hakim asserts. “We can work on protecting Iraq’s national interest.”

At the same time, JAM special operations units are said to be operating in Iran to help with mapping potential targets and destabilizing the Government by rousing the faithful in the South. Efforts to enlist Iraq’s Kurds in common cause, with the objective of enlisting Iranian Kurds, in advance of a Northern front, are said to remain inconclusive. I could elicit from Sheik Ali that planning calls for Tehran to be squashed between a coordinated uprising in the North and the South, supported by U.S. Air Power.

JAM/U.S. Army military cooperation will continue, with its scope being expanded. “To the contrary of evolving thinking, at this stage of public opinion going against the surge, a visible battlefield victory is needed. JAM stands ready to help make this happen in Bagdad. I continue to argue in favor of coordinated “direct measures” against “key targets.” The bulk of the violence, both insurgent and sectarian, continues to be inflicted by an identifiable cabal, which can be rendered “neutral. And JAM Special Operations Units, augmented by some of the previous regime’s finest and cooperating with Iraqi Special Forces, stand uniquely prepared and willing to accomplish that objective.”

JAM is committed to help the U.S. Army achieve a tactical battlefield victory in advance of BSP to order to help the President gain breezing space, to make the necessary adjustments and to soften the blow of defeat. “Our common objectives can be achieved in the 18-to-24 month time-frame, now under consideration. There is further potential for a convergence of views on the role, which a united democratic Iraq, at peace with self and her neighbors can play as an ally on the War on Terrorism. It should be underscored that the U.S. vision for the New Iraq and the Sadrist vision for the New Iraq are much closer in line than is appreciated.”

Sheik Ali asserts that Sadrists support the calls for an end to sectarian killings, the disarmament of militias and an equitable distribution of oil-revenue, presupposing that the constructive parallelism between non-interference by outside powers/ withdrawal of all foreign forces, regular and irregular, restoration of public order/ sovereignty and self-governance be respected and appreciated. Mr. Hakim echoes these sentiments, expressing hope that forthcoming political talks between the elders yield a goal-orienetd Programme of Action towards that end.

Sheik Ali hopes for a cessation of hostilities to be advanced concomitant to the phased redeployment of U.S. forces, as both a precondition for and function of the fledgling process for national reconciliation, in advance of a national accord on all principles, political and religious, which are to govern the new Iraq. Towards that end, he considers support for the emerging Movement for the National Liberation of Iraq from Foreign Occupation of critical import.

He points out that the Hoyatoleslam has called for a demilitarization of the strategy, with set deadlines for immediate re-deployment (within 180 days, i.e. spring 2008) and near-term withdrawal. (within 540 days, i.e. 9 April 2009) Replacing departing troops with militias and insurgents, amenable to political compromise and re-configuration under government control either, at the level of the central government or the provincial level. He encourages the recall of eligible soldiers of the Iraqi Army, in particular Specialized Republican Guard.

At the same time, Sheik Ali states that the Hoyatoleslam aims to advance cross-sectarian political and militia/ insurgency cooperation in furtherance of common cause. With the future of Iraq resting with the people of Iraq, and with them alone, ongoing efforts aimed at Parliamentary re-alignment, with the objective of forming a National Salvation Government, capable and willing to govern, to be led by a competent and willing Prime Minister, committed to the advance of National Accord both, programmatically and operationally, are being augmented. It is hoped, so Sheik Ali, that a governing coalition can be brought about, which has the benchmarks as an integral part of the coalition agreement.

“It will be critical for the coalition agreement to enshrine the Hoyatoleslam’s call for a “New Contract for All Iraqis:” to be based on Hope, Tolerance, Nonviolence, Conciliation and Unity.”

Sadrists envision two processes: internal to Iraq, a national reconciliation process, to be based on a national reconciliation (all party) conference, to which all stakeholders in the Iraqi body politic are to be invited both, non-governmental and governmental. To be preceded by the Summit of Militia Leaders. It is in fusing the two, where short-term, Sheik Ali sees prospect for improving Iraq’s security situation.

He thinks that an Eminent Persons Group, under the patronage of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, perhaps co-chaired by the Hoyatoleslam, the younger Mr. Hakim or Jalal al-Deen al-Saghir from the Shia side and Abdullah Rashid al-Baghdadi, Harith Sulayman al-Dhari or Mahmoud al-Sumaydai from the Sunni side, and with its members to be drawn from the political and religious leadership of all constituent groups of the Iraqi body politic subscribing to the national accord, including Christians, could help steer post-Conference follow-up and follow-on.

External to Iraq, the Sadrist game plan envisions an international conference in support of Iraq’s internal efforts, which could address Iraq's juxtaposition within the Middle East, security assurances and economic development. The Compact, adjusted accordingly, may prove a viable venue, Sheik Ali thinks.

“The sole purpose of the conference to augment the process, internal to Iraq,” he says. “And yet, legitimate concerns of Iraq's neighbors could be addressed, perhaps better within the larger international framework, rather than merely within the regional. Yet, the Iraq Question must not be internationalized, but internalized. Iraq for the Iraqis.”

Sheik Ali holds that somewhere between the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Iraq, regular and irregular, and non-intervention by outside powers an inspired diplomacy will find the historic compromise to the Iraq quagmire.

The proposed conference could, he states, advance the operant dynamic/ linkage between withdrawal of all foreign forces, regular and irregular, and non-interference by outside powers, into which U.S. redeployment/ withdrawal can be absorbed. Getting Iran/ Syria to commit not to interfere in the internal affairs of Iraq may be among the few long-term objectives, U.S. diplomacy can achieve, short-term. “Within this context, the potential role of UN peacekeeping should be looked at further,” Sheik Ali says.

A Contact Group, to be comprised of the UN, EU, OIC, Arab League, the P-5, relevant and interested powers, could be envisioned to help steer conference follow-up and follow-on.

Sheik Ali holds that an Eminent Persons Group internal to Iraq and a Contact Group external to Iraq could provide a chapeau for the dual-track framework, with the objective of helping advance maximum coordination and harmonization of security in all its aspects. “If successful, the operant dynamic, inherent in the dual-track framework, could be considered for the convening of a Conference for Security and Cooperation in the Middle East (CSCME) to explore vistas, venues and modalities to address and redress the gamut of political-military, economic and social issues, confronting the region. Such a bold initiative, however, would require willingness to proceed on Palestinian Statehood.”

Sheik Ali voices his optimism on Palestinian statehood, expressing his view that President Bush may think of himself as the “Godfather of the Palestinian State.”
Sheik Ali sees great potential for post-Liberation Iraqi diplomacy. There is, in advance of Iraq’s leading Middle East role, benefit to be derived from linking Iraq’s liberation struggle to the quest for Palestinian statehood, he thinks. “Liberation and Empowerment should be linked in advance of the Democratic. In Iraq. As in Palestine. As throughout the Middle East. We should position Shia Iraq in the forefront of an awakening pan-Arab nationalism. The President’s initiative on an international peace conference, with the objective of bringing about a Palestinian State, should be seen in this regard. We should support the effort and aim to link it up to a larger Middle East Conference a la CSCME.” Another brainchild, for which he has no takers. “Not yet,” he chuckles.

جميـــع حقـوق الطبع والنشر محفوظة لصوت العراق /
Copyright © 2000-2007 Sotaliraq.com - All rights reserved

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

CONVERSATIONS WITH SHEIK ALI AL-MUTHABA - Part II

Voice of Iraq Exclusive
جميـــع حقـوق الطبع والنشر محفوظة لصوت العراق /
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CONVERSATIONS WITH SHEIK ALI AL-MUTHABA

This is the second in a three-part series of articles, written for Voice of Iraq by Andreas Bartels, a German journalist and novelist, detailing the work of the JAM Political-Military Affairs and Special Operations Command and its Senior Commander, Sheik Ali Al-Muthaba, aka Mr. Albrecht Gero Muth. The series is based on a number of interviews, conducted over the course of several days in September and October 2007. The first part (3rd October 2007) addresses itself on a proposed Summit of Militia Leaders, to be convened in furtherance of the process for national reconciliation, in advance of a national accord. The second part (10th October 2007) addresses itself on the ongoing transformation of JAM into an “Army for Peace,” the evolution of the Sadrist Movement into a Civil Rights Movement and Movement for the National Liberation of Iraq, and the Sadrist vision for the New and Democratic Iraq. The third part addresses itself on the Bagdad Security Plan, the Iraq War, the War on Terrorism and the Sadrist gameplan for the Road to National Awakening.

Jaish-Al-Mehdi: An “Army for Peace”

By Andreas Bartels

Sadr City, BAGDAD, Al-Iraq, 10th October 2007. With success of the Bagdad Security Plan marked by limited advance of the military over the political track, its sustainability in doubt due to eroding popular support for the war effort in both, the United States and Iraq, the secular leadership, under Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, is crumbling under both, internal strains, i.e. a state of inter-sectarian civil war and political infighting within an evaporating governing United Iraqi Alliance, and external strains, i.e. a proxy war being waged by Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

None of the key benchmarks set to measure BSP success have been met, national reconciliation declared unattainable. While President Jalal Talabani and Dr. Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the head of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, are incapacitated by illness, other potential compromise leaders, in line to replace a faltering Prime Minister, are busying themselves with making contingency plans for renewed “exile-abroad.”

Inertia, fueled by a lethal mix of incompetence and intransigence, characterizes a central government, no longer functioning, in a State, no longer existing. Iraq is a failed State. Against the storm clouds gathering across the Arabian Sea, the Hoyatoleslam Moqtadr al-Sadr, ever committed to principle over expediency and dedicated to the people of Iraq over personal safety, stands vigilant watch in defense of the Iraqi national interest. Tirelessly and against all odds, the man of God, son of the Prophet, is fusing the Sadrist Movement into a creative hybrid of a civil rights movement and a movement for the national liberation from foreign occupation. As the Jaish al-Mehdi, the Sadrist Movement’s respected military wing, is being transformed into an “Army for Peace.” States Mr. George W. Bush, the American President: “The turn-about face of the Mehdi Army and its willingness to cooperate in advance of restoring law and order to the streets of Baghdad is nothing short of stunning and we have Mr. Muth, in part, to thank for it. Although it is too early to reach a definitive judgment, his tireless efforts to bring the parties to the conflict to the table deserve our attention.”

Since assuming command of the JAM Political-Military Affairs and Special Operations Command in January, Mr. Albrecht Gero Muth, aka Sheik Ali Al-Muthaba, has been working hard on recasting the Mehdi Army as a liberation army, loyal to the Iraqi State and serving Iraq’s Shia, Sunni, Kurdish and Christian religious groups, reinventing the Sadrist Movement in advance of empowerment of the disenfranchised, with the goal of aligning JAM with the United States Army and the Sadrist Movement with the United States national interest. States the Honorable Thomas R. Pickering, a Career Ambassador in the United States Foreign Service: “To the extent Muth has been successful in aligning al-Sadr’s Mehdi Army with the United States Army, and the Sadrist movement with U.S. interests, and there is some evidence for that, he has made a major contribution to the American war effort.”

At BSP inception, it was assumed that the Hoyatoleslam was marked for arrest, or assassination, the Sadrist Movement and the Mehdi Army for annihilation, in short, an open confrontation between JAM and U.S. and Iraqi military and security forces was the foregone conclusion. Today, in defense of Iraqis against all enemies, domestic and foreign, JAM and the U.S. Army are cooperating on restoring law and order to the streets of Baghdad and, beyond, and in reigning in specialized units of the Iranian Army, targeting U.S. and Iraqi military and security forces on Iraqi territory.

Resolution to the modalities, under which the U.S. Army is to enter Basra, to fill the void left by the retreating British, will further affirm a new spirit of mutuality. Meetings between senior JAM and U.S. Army Combatant Commanders are, if not yet the norm, regular, with General Raymond Odiernio, the second in command of U.S. forces, on record as seeking a personal meeting with the Hoyatoleslam. And, on 7 October 2007, General Roger Lempke, USAF, the outgoing Adjutant-General of the State of Nebraska and President of the Adjutant-Generals Association of the United States, returned the Salute, rendered by Sheik Ali, on behalf of the world’s youngest militia, the JAM, to the oldest, the National Guard of the United States.
The military track of a quiet entente cordial, in play since about Easter, having been augmented by a parallel political track, involving a series of meetings between Mr. Ryan Crocker, the American Ambassador in Bagdad, and the Sadrist Parliamentary leadership and an unconfirmed exchange of letters between Messrs. Bush and al-Sadr, with Mr. Dick Cheney, the American Vice President, supporting a “political arrangement with the Hoyatoleslam,” as Shia Arab Iraq is being quietly positioned contra Shia non-Arab Iran.

Sheik Ali challenges the perception of Mr. al-Sadr as anti-American. “Hardly,” he proclaims. “Does being for national liberation, for troop withdrawal make him anti-American? I should think not. For in that, the Hoyatoleslam stands shoulder-to-shoulder with the Democrats in the United States Congress and a majority of Americans. Does believing that the occupation is illegal make him anti-American? I should think not. For in that, he stands shoulder-to-shoulder with most of the Arab and Islamic World and Europe.”

Early on, Mr. Muth was able to convince the Hoyatoleslam that he could not win an open confrontation with the United States Army and that, as a friend of the United States, with a step-grandson at West Point, the United States Military Academy, he would not be a party to it. “In a way, that was the easy part,” states Mr. Muth, “the Hoyatoleslam had observed the U.S. Army in action, not to forget his memories of the fighting spirit of the United States Marine and, awe-struck, knew JAM would be no match on the open battlefield. We had long discussions about Clausewitz’s call for action over Sun’s call for inaction in confronting overwhelming enemy forces, with me recommending to sit out the surge, ordered by President Bush on 10 January 2007, because I knew the added deployment would not prove sustainable due to the U.S. forces structure.”

The Bush Administration and Members of the United States Congress were incredulous when, in his widely-noted statement to the Foreign Relations Committee of the United States Senate on 1 February 2007, de-flagging the threat perception emanating to U.S. forces, Mr. Muth stated: (Beginning of Quote) “Regrettably, erroneous assumptions and a lack of understanding of and appreciation for the operant dynamic of the Iraqi body politic continue to under gird the Administration’s conduct of the war. The mishandling of the Hoyatoleslam Moqtadir al-Sadar is a case-in-point, bearing in mind, for example, that the Mehdi Army started out friendly towards the United States, a potential ally in the fighting, ahead. Until Fallujah and Najaf were permitted to let relations get out of kilter and Ambassador Khalilzad proved himself incapable to mend broken fences. How could he, if the proposition on the table was/ is (?) for the Hoyatolelsam to break ranks with Shia unity. A non-starter! (?)” …

“Success of both the President’s and the Prime Minister’s plans depends, in no small measure, on how to address issues pertaining to the Mehdi Army and its spiritual leader, the Hoyatoleslam Moqtadir al-Sadar. At last, the constructive role, which the Hoyatoleslam can play, is beginning to be recognized. As is in evidence in the discreet feelers both sides are putting out.” …

“An improving security situation will, in the fullness of time, enable the Hoyatoleslam to address the future of the Mehdi Army, constructively and innovatively. While the issue should be pushed, it need not be pressed. As it may prove difficult for the Hoyatoleslam, if alone on religious grounds, to disband the Mehdi Army, we may have to look at innovative approaches to “deactivation” vs. “decommissioning” vs. “demobilization.” A constructive ambiguity on language versus clarity of action may provide necessary room for maneuver. The writing on the walls has been noted.” (End of Quote)

Mr. Muth’s statement seemed to indicate an order by the Hoyatoleslam to JAM to stand down, an order, which would be confirmed, in the days ahead, by a lessening of JAM military activity. Within days, the gesture was reciprocated when, on 9 February 2007, General Odierno stated that Mr. al-Sadr was not a target of the U.S. military effort and that it would be left to the Iraqis to decide how best to deal with him.

With JAM considered key to success in Bagdad, Vice President Cheney, for whom Mr. Muth and his wife, Mrs. Francis S. Drath, widow of Colonel Francis S. Drath, the Deputy Director of the United States Selective Service System under General Lewis B. Hershey, hosted a 65th birthday reception at DACOR Bacon House, the prestigious foreign service club in walking distance of the White House, now presses him to push Mr. al-Sadr, further, to make a principled move, rather than merely an expedient one.

“What was more difficult was for me to convince the Hoyatoleslam of the benefit, not just not to undercut the U.S. war effort, but to join the U.S. war effort,” Mr. Muth says.
“That became a feasible prospect, when the White House signaled willingness to allow for a parallelism between an “improved security situation” and a “phased redeployment without replacement” of U.S. forces, a key Sadrist demand. That willingness provided the opening for him not to view JAM and U.S. war aims as a zero-sum, but as feeding off each other. It was a hard sell, but I am proud of the accomplishment. It goes to the core of the agent of influence, i.e. the one who influences decisions to be taken by others by influencing the thinking of the decision-maker. As General (edit: Markus) Wolf, (edit: long-time head of the East German foreign intelligence service) always impressed upon us, ‘He, who controls thought, controls action.’”

By spring, in time for the Day of National Awakening on 9 April 2007, Mr. al-Sadr had agreed to the following language, which became the canon of JAM’s public posture on the BSP: “The Hoyatoleslam Moqtadir al-Sadar supports the BSP, (military track) with the goal of restoring law and order to the streets of Iraq’s Capital city, in furtherance of the timely withdrawal/ redeployment of all foreign forces from Iraq, regular and irregular, parallel to a process for national reconciliation, (political track) which takes account of Shia unity in advance of Shia empowerment, political and economic, and which acknowledges the constructive role of the religious in the public sphere of the New and democratic Iraq.”

The statement is readily recognized for its signal impact and paves the way to an entente cordial between JAM and the U.S. Army. The Hoyatoleslam’s order of 29 August 2007 for JAM to stand down, further, for up to six months, must be seen in this regard. In some ways thrust upon Mr. al-Sadr in the wake of the Karbala shootings of 28 August 2007 which, pitting JAM and Dr. Hakim’s BADR organization against each other, with random street violence threatening to undercut popular support for the Sadrist Movement, Sheik Ali is, at first, concerned about the impact of this unilateral step on the military and political objectives of the JAM Battle Plan.
“We were making our way to a freeze on JAM military operations. However, the step was not to be taken, unilaterally, but in coordination with BADR, Fadhila and Sunni insurgent groups, as well as U.S. and Iraqi military and security forces.”

With the course of action, upon which the order launches JAM, marred with serious peril for the Hoyatoleslam, JAM and the Movement, he recommends to keep implementation in abeyance, pending a move on the part of the U.S. Army, a goodwill gesture. That move comes, within days of his intercession with General Odierno, in Western Baghdad, in form of a lessening of U.S. Army incursions as a result of JAM standing down. On 12 September 2007, the Los Angeles Times is first to report that the U.S. is seeking a pact with Mr. al-Sadr.

“Delineating definitions between “extremists” versus “terrorists,” as General Odierno and I have been discussing since 2006, is critical to enlisting nationalist elements of Shia militias and Sunni insurgency,” says Sheik Ali. States General Odierno: “When we look at it from a United States perspective, it’s about who threatens the United States. … I guess, you have to get into the technical definitions between the two. The bottom line is who threatens the safety of our citizens in the United States and as well as our allies, and we will deal with it based on that.”
Sheik Ali asserts that neither the Mehdi Army, nor the Sadrist Movement threaten the safety of Americans in the United States, nor the lives of America’s allies at-home. To the contrary, he continues, JAM is fully cooperating with the U.S. Army on the Bagdad Security Plan, in restoring law and order to the streets of Western Bagdad, and now, beyond Bagdad, with the Hoyatoleslam supporting the U.S. Army’s efforts to enlist Shia tribal leaders in Western Iraq in advance of common cause in the defense of Iraq.

Throughout summer, Sheik Ali pushes to replicate “unity efforts” on the Shia front. As “intra-sectarian amalgamation will lend itself to inter-sectarian alignment,” he argues. A Memorandum of Agreement, signed by Messrs. al-Sadr and al-Hakim on 6 October 2007, sets forth a series of measures in furtherance of peace and unity between the Sadrist Movement and the Supreme Council, including their respective militias. “We welcome the agreement as an important instrument aimed at stabilizing a fragile security situation in Southern Iraq. We support all efforts to restore law and order in Iraq and are especially attentive to Mr. Muth’s personal efforts in this regard,” comments a senior White House official, on customary condition of anonymity, as he is not authorized to speak on Mr. Muth’s activities on-the-record.
“We must move to immediate implementation of the MOA in advance of a Summit of Militia Leaders, which the Hoyatoleslam sees as an important measure to jumpstart the process for national reconciliation in advance of national accord,” states Sheik Ali. “Towards that end, cooperation between JAM and BADR in restoring law and order to the streets of Basra will be a critical first test for the new spirit of commonality. We are now agreed that whatever affects either of us, directly affects both of us, and all of Iraq, indirectly.”

Success in enlisting JAM and Sunni insurgent groups in common cause is the singular most significant development to emanate from the BSP, on which General David Petraeus, the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, reports to the United States Congress as early as September. “As I have stated, extremists are outflanked at the far-end, not the near-end,” states Sheik Ali. Within this context, he welcomes a change in attitude on the part of the United States Government towards extremists. Reports Time Magazine: “A State Department official says what is needed is a greater willingness to engage hard line forces on both sides of the sectarian divide as well as the Iranians and Syrians.”

“In 2005, while serving UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, I first recommended to enlist nationalist elements of the insurgency into the political process as the best hope to improve Iraq’s internal security situation and thence make possible the withdrawal of all foreign forces and the restoration of full sovereignty. Today, these recommendations form the basis for JAM’s ongoing efforts within the Ninneveh process.”

The Ninneveh process is an informal consultative process between Shia militia and Sunni insurgent leaders on coordinated direct action to advance national liberation, launched by Mr. Muth, when first arriving in Iraq in October 2006.

Sadrists support the ongoing battlefield re-alignment, on the assumption that it not come at the expense of Iraqi national unity. A point, which is confirmed in a meeting with Mr. Nassar al-Rubbaie, the leader of the Sadrist Parliamentary bloc. “The effort must not be discriminatory, nor undermine the central government. We call on the government to form a collective national militia command from Sunnis, Shias and Kurds to fight terrorists, together.”

As Iraq looks for ways to integrate those elements of the various militias, willing to join the democratic process, Sheik Ali recommends to look to the American experience of transforming America’s militias and integrating them into a uniform forces structure. “Just as, in replacing the old Militia Act of 1792, the 1903 Dick Act thrust the American federal government into the picture by establishing procedures for a more direct and active role in organizing, training and equipping an organized militia, aka a National Guard, in line with the standards established for the regular Army, so an inspired Iraqi political leadership should advance an organized militia, (National Guard) with an organization, pay, discipline and equipment of the National Guard to be the same as that of the Regular Iraqi Army,” he states.

Sheik Ali welcomes that exploration is under way into the feasibility/ desirability for the Ministry of Defense to create a Division of Militia Affairs. Comments Brigadier General Stephen M. Koper, USAF-Ret., the President of the National Guard Association of the United States: “We are following Mr. Muth’s great personal campaign in Iraq to bring the current situation to an equitable and lasting peaceful conclusion and thank him for his yeoman efforts in this regard.”
JAM and the United States Army have taken each other’s measure, with the one realizing that it cannot win without the other. “With victory in-hand,” Sheik Ali asserts, “it is incumbent upon all to refrain from gloating. The Hoyatoleslam is committed to pursuing a course of cross-sectarian integration and national unity. The Iraq Question seen as much a struggle for national liberation from foreign occupation, as empowerment of the disenfranchised, a fusion between Mahatma Gandhi and Dr. Martin Luther King. With constructive nonviolence, as distinct from pacifism, the means to advance social change.”

In meeting after meeting, as we cross Iraq’s war-torn countryside, from JAM command to JAM command, rallying the faithful to the Hoyatoleslam’s “Message of Peace,” Sheik Ali impresses on his Iraqi peers that, in blending the quest for national liberation from foreign occupation and advance of civil liberties and human rights, important lessons can be learned from the Mahtama and India’s epic struggle to rid herself of the yoke of Colonial dominion.

“A liberation army, whose fighting sons are embedded in the hearts and souls of the occupied, moves beyond the reach of the occupier,” states Sheik Ali.

Comments Arun Gandhi, the Mahatma’s grandson, a friend of Mr. Muth’s, whose subtle moderating influence is being brought to bear on Mr. al-Sadr: “The question is how much of the hate that they display in the Iraq situation is generated by real prejudices and how much is plain politicking. This makes a big difference. If it comes from genuine prejudices one can work to enlighten them but if it is politicking then there is no help. My feeling is that it is all politics.”
A sentiment echoed by Mr. Muth, when he expands upon “the political” in advance of “the religious.” “I like to think the realization that they use the religious in advance of the political works to our advantage, when striving for conciliation, because I can draw a critical delineation between the religious as a means versus it being the end. Moreover, is working on overcoming someone’s prejudices, especially where based on fundamental religious belief, not far more demanding of the process than advance of the realization of “the politically attainable” versus “the religiously feasible”?”

Sheik Ali sees important similarities between India’s quest for independence and Iraq’s quest for liberation, with this year’s 150th anniversary of the Indian Mutiny, also known as the First War for Indian Independence, providing guide to the conceptual and operational approach to direct action.

Sheik Ali is proud of the public stir caused, when allegations surfaced the British had released badgers into the streets of Basra. “Not the thing to do, I hear. … Pure disinformation. Good disinformation. It did the trick. … It further incited public opinion against the British, at a critical juncture of our effort to dislodge them. Similar to the way, in which the switching of the oil, which lubed rifle ammunition during the Indian campaign, helped ignite the Indian mutiny.”
The British were expecting a military assault. Instead, they confronted civil disobedience. As during the Salt March, they did not know how to respond to people power. Forced to relinquish Basra Palace, the city is now open. The British campaign to secure Basra, launched last fall, having failed.

As our heavily-guarded convoy motors along the road connecting Basra City center to the British base near the Airport, where the last remnants of British Expeditionary Forces are hunkered down, awaiting final word on embarkation for the long winter’s journey home, a subdued Sheik Ali states, quietly: “Looking at those poor chaps, one almost has a sense of a deja-vu: Dunkirk!”

A friend of the British, his heart goes out to them. “Why don’t they redeploy in one swoop and spare themselves this disgraceful exit. By God, we are looking at Wellington’s boys. The British Army. An ally in a future conflict. I would like to point out that our shelling was very deliberate and concentrated solely on infrastructure. The assertion is borne out by the ratio of incoming fire versus casualties! And the shelling has now come to an end.”

He insists that neither British, nor American life has been lost at his hand. “I shall have none of it.”

Sheik Ali takes pains to stress that JAM is not at war with the British, nor the Americans for that matter, and sees no need to slaughter them. “The bloodletting must come to an end. On all fronts. And, it’s coming to an end. At Basra. Now. By God. One of our finest caught a British soldier off guard, aiming point-blank, he standing no chance. My man disarmed the Britisher, taking his dog tag, only to send him on his way. We sent the dog tag to Regimental Headquarters, to be united with the soldier. Point made. I was assured, point taken. Not sure, how well. Alas. …”

Later that evening, at local JAM Headquarters, an uncharacteristically pensive Sheik Ali reflects on his militia experience, lighting a Cuban cigar, a gift of the Russian Ambassador in Cairo and handed to him by Naseer, his ever doting manservant: “When the history of the current conflict is written one day, in the distant future, history lending certainty to the hour’s ambiguity, no matter what may, as yet, lie ahead for us on the battlefield, I do hope the Army of the Mehdi will be remembered for abiding by the age-old code of soldiering.”

Cutting an elegant figure in his red silken smoking jacket, “a birthday gift from his boys,” he continues, the smoke bouncing little circles off the cigar’s tip: “We do not question the Geneva Conventions. The men of the Army of the Mehdi are not savages, but the future of Iraq. And still, in his dreams, ever nearer to God, this militiaman, by then grayed, the tenuousness of the step giving away the years gone by, the shadows lengthening all about, taking pride in the comfort of knowing that he stood with the progressive forces for peace, will permit his mind to wander. Wander back to the Iraqi Patriot, as he stood his ground against overwhelming odds. And I shall quietly say to myself, Tout est bien fini, je ne regrettte rien.”

As he has Naseer put on a recording of Sarastro’s second aria from Mozart’s last opera, The Magic Flute, “In diesen heil’gen Hallen,” the command’s unofficial hymnal, a moving bass aria praising conciliation, understanding and peace across religious divides, Sheik Ali recites one of his favorite poems, inspired by the poem “In Flanders Fields.” In 1915, during the Great War, Mrs. Miona Michael replied with her own poem: "We cherish too, the Poppy red That grows on fields where valor led, It seems to signal to the skies That blood of heroes never dies."

“Are you a romantic, Sheik Ali,” I want to know. ‘A romantic,” he reflects upon my question, exhaling cigar smoke. “As in the human emotion, or the Movement?"

“Either.”

“I’ll leave that one to my chronicler.” A mournful sorrow permeates the air, Sheik Ali displaying the customary disposition of the devoted topophiliac, a state of mind he readily admits to. Visibly moved by himself, he points out that Mrs. Michael helped establish a fine tradition, which calls for the wearing of red poppies in memory of those fallen in wars. A tradition, he states, later picked up by Madam Guerin from France who, upon her return from visiting the United States, instituted the custom of selling artificial red poppies to raise money for war orphaned children and war widows. A custom, picked up by American veterans in the 1920s, which continues in many a country to this date. “A custom, which I'd like to think, could be expanded upon within the context of Victory-in-Iraq Day, in advance of the orphans, widows and widowers left behind on all sides.”

And offering me a glass of dry sherry, while observing a voluntary pledge to abstain from drinking, Sheik Ali goes on to state that he sees in today’s militiaman and insurgent Iraq’s leader of tomorrow.

“It’s a privilege to serve alongside the Iraqi Patriot. His vigor, his zeal, his commitment to duty, honor, country, a source of near unending joy and inspiration. Not unlike the American Patriot, or citizen-soldiers the world over, the Iraqi Patriot bears the brunt of battle and has the scars to prove it. In his heart, he knows that Iraqis do not kill Iraqis. In his mind, he knows that renunciation of the use of violence is a mandatory pre-requisite for inclusion in a general and blanket amnesty to be afforded all Iraqis, willing to lay down their arms and to join the democratic process. It will be up to the soul to reconcile the two.”

Sheik Ali decries the lack of progress on amnesty. “Amnesty is an important means, integral to Demobilization, Decommissioning and Rehabilitation,” he insists. In the finest tradition of the Bedouin tribesman, he observes, “You can take the camel across the desert to water, but you cannot make it drink. … But, why take the camel across the desert, without the promise of water at journey’s end? Lest it be a chimera.”

“The objectives, for which many a militiaman and insurgent fights, are not, as some would have it,” Sheik Ali states, “defined by the East-West difference, but spring from internal to the Middle East. If we look at the leadership of militias and insurgency, we find many a son of the upper classes, in open rebellion against their parents, the corruption and decadence, for which they stand. Islamic Revivalism, National Liberation, Empowerment, and Nationalism are currents in a sea of change. As Westerners, we come into the gage because of our support for these corrupt and decadent regimes. I advocate in favor of our support for the revolutionary potential of the masses, contra the established order, which does not serve the people.”

Sheik Ali sees Iraq at the cusp of Revolution, a revolution, perhaps, as significant to the advance of the human experience as the American and French Revolutions. A revolution, he senses, directed more against the homegrown tyrant than the foreign occupier.

“Let the Colonial order collapse. With dignity. It has served its time,” he asserts. “Shia Iraq’s future relations with the West will be defined by whether it came about with Western support. Or, against. Just as mending the Shia-Sunni rift will depend, in part, on whether Shia Iraq will have come about with or without Sunni support.” Points he made to Mr. Hosni Mubarak, the President of Egypt, and Colonel Muamar Qadaffi, the Libyan Leader, during an extended tour of the Middle East.

In advance of Shia-Sunni conciliation, Sheik Ali, ever the strategist who, perhaps, a modern-day Clausewitz --- the German General, who during the Napoleonic Wars served the Russian Czar, without speaking a word of Russian --- is deemed a key architect of the JAM Battle Plan, has put forth the proposition of a “Tolerance Edict of Najaf.” The inspiration being the Edict of Nantes. “Can that, which worked for Catholics and Protestants, be made to work for Shias and Sunnis, as well as Muslims and Christians,” he wonders out, aloud.

“Were it to offer general freedom of conscience and draw the important dialectic between civil versus religious unity could the Edict, proposed, not lend momentum to the process for national reconciliation? And could, in so doing, the Edict, proposed, advanced by the Religious, strangely enough, not open a path for Secularism and Tolerance? Should the Secular not prove more readily attainable where advanced by the Religious, rather than Secularites and, if so, should we not be willing to cede an appropriate role in Iraq’s public sphere to the Religious, especially where the Religious is being advanced in defense of the Democratic?”

Penetrating questions, which go to the core of the Iraq Question.
Great progress is being made in building the National Movement for the Liberation of Iraq from Foreign Occupation, with the Sadrist Movement at its center, and the Maximum Leader at its helm. Whereas in the past, thought was given to the proposition of blending eligible elements of JAM into the Iraqi Army, the number of defections from the Iraqi Army to JAM is now to the point, where JAM may well become the new Army of the New Iraq. “As Sadrists we are building institutions paralleling those of the government, with the objective of blending them into the government upon the change in government.”

A visit with the Hoyatoleslam in Kufa marks the highlight of another extended inspection tour of the battlefield. Over the course of an afternoon he sets forth his vision for the new and democratic Iraq, proposing a “New Contract for all Iraqis,” to be based on Hope, Tolerance, Nonviolence, Conciliation and Unity. The vision Mr. al-Sadr sets forth would seem a blending of national liberation, liberation theology and civil rights, in advance of restoration of sovereignty and self-governance and empowerment, political and economic.

"There is an abundance of cries and complaints calling for democracy in Iraq. I hear the people cry. I heed their cries. Despite these calls, the Iraqi people remain deprived of services like water and electricity and even communications. It is time for the Prime Minister to stand down and for the National Unity Government to yield to the Government of National Salvation."
Sensing my surprise to find him in Iraq, amidst published reports, which have him in Iran, he retorts, disenchanted: “Where, in Allah’s Name, would I be, but with my people? Do not believe the lies, the occupier spreads about me. I did not leave Iraq, even in the darkest hour of tyranny, when the tyrant took joy in killing off my family. And I shall not leave Iraq now. Never. Why? To make it easier for the occupier?”

Throughout, Mr. al-Sadr stresses his commitment to nonviolence in advance of the Sadrist political, economic and religious agendas. “My hand is stretched out to everyone who is willing to cooperate with us in restoring Iraq: “One People, One Country, One God.”

Mr. al-Sadr points to synergies between restoration of public order, the timely withdrawal of all foreign forces, regular and irregular, non-interference by outside powers, the restoration of Iraqi self-governance and the restoration of Iraqi sovereignty. The Sadrist Movement and its Leader consider themselves uniquely prepared to advance the one, in furtherance of the other.
The Hoyatoleslam deplores the absence of a national accord, which sets forth the religious and political principles, which will govern post-Liberation Iraq. Lamenting that militias and insurgents are being talked about, rather than talked to, he renews his call for a summit of insurgent leaders in order to jumpstart the defunct national reconciliation process. He welcomes France’s lead in pushing for a stronger UN political role in Iraq and voices his full support for efforts to bring all parties to the conflict to the table. “We support the calls for an end to sectarian killings, the disarmament of militias and an equitable distribution of oil-revenue,” he says, while looking over to Sheik Ali, whom he calls “Brother.”

“Anything, I should add, my Brother?”

“Well done, my Leader,” replies the ever attentive Sheik Ali, whose talents are such, that he would rise in any society.

A strange dynamic characterizes the relationship between the Hoyatoleslam and Mr. Muth. It was Mr. al-Sadr, who first made contact, while Mr. Muth served as Special Adviser to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan. Having read an address on post-conflict reconciliation and rehabilitation of former combatants, Mr. Muth delivered to a Ministerial Meeting of the African Union. At the time, Mr. Muth served as Executive Director of the Eminent Persons Group, an international commission, advisory to Mr. Annan and co-chaired by Mr. Alpha Oumar Konare, the Chairperson of the Commission of the African Union, and Mr. Salim Ahmed Salim, the former Secretary-General of the Organization of African Unity. Both, prominent Muslim leaders on the world stage. They would not meet in person until fall 2006, when Secretary-General Annan dispatched Mr. Muth to Iraq, as part of his good-offices mission to jumpstart the process for national reconciliation, fledgling then, as it is now.

The Hoyatoleslam and Mr. Muth are so alike, in disposition and demeanor. Two outsiders looking in, rather than two insiders looking out. And yet, so different, the Hoyatolelsam holding the reigns of political power, and Mr. Muth knowing how to use political power in advance of his Master’s interests. In that, Mr. Muth has learned well from his uncle, Mr. Gerald Goetting who, as longtime Vice President of East Germany, even though a Christian Democrat, had no compunction about subordinating himself to the ruling Communist power elite, in exchange for a role on the world stage. Always in leading support cast, never as the lead actor.

The desire to lead, mitigated by the need to serve, a strange phenomenon, which characterizes the family’s commitment to public service. His father, Alphonso Count Albi, having been a confidant of Mussolini’s, the Italian Fascist Leader. Says Michel Rocard, the former Prime Minister of France and co-chairman-emeritus of the Eminent Persons Group. “Albrecht is a man, who would have made me President of France. … Unfortunately, he prefers to serve the Prime Minister, instead of wanting to become Prime Minister himself. … But, then, he gets to serve me. …”

Teacher, student? Master, servant? Who is what to whom? I cannot make it out.
“Given the daily assaults on my people it is comforting and reassuring a realization to know myself one with Sheik Ali. He is a man of Christ, a man of honor. He walks with the angels. I cherish his counsel,” Mr. al-Sadr professes his esteem for the German noble. “His name is eternally linked to Iraq’s Freedom Struggle, borne in the heart of every Iraqi.”
Sheik Ali is granted the privilege of assisting the Shia Leader in the ritual of the daily robing, a great distinction for a non-Muslim.

“Don’t get me into trouble with Rome, my Leader,” muses a self-depricating Sheik Ali in a discreet reference to his ties to the Holy See.

A strange banter permeates the Hoyatoleslam’s interaction with his favorite commander, including a critique of the latest Mr. Bean movie, which both have enjoyed watching, immensely. They seem to read each other well, finishing each other’s sentences, as if on cue, amazing the more, as the Hoyatoleslam does not speak English, and Sheik Ali does not speak Arabic.
Mr. al-Sadr sees national reconciliation as a long process, which must integrate all those operating outside the system. He sees the Mehdi Army as an “Army for Peace” and advocates “peaceful demonstrations,” including “sit-ins,” staples of civil rights movements the world over. “Unheard of as tools in advance of the free will of a free people in a Middle East ruled by autocracy.”

Mr. al-Sadr points out that he authorized senior JAM representatives to attend a meeting in Finland in September, convened by former Finnish President Marthi Ahtisaari, which brought together Shia militia and Sunni insurgent leaders. The Hoyatoleslam views the meeting as manifestation of the goodwill on the part of the parties to the conflict to be engaged, constructively.

“Participants committed themselves to work towards a robust framework for a lasting settlement,” a meeting statement reads. It adds that the participants “agreed to consult further” on a list of 12 recommendations to begin reconciliation talks, including resolving political disputes through non-violence and democracy. The recommendations included a call for weapons decommissioning and establishment of an independent commission to supervise and verify the decommissioning process. The agreement called for all parties to be included in the reconciliation process and to accept the results of the negotiations, while working “to end international and regional interference” in Iraq, with the objective of ending the presence of foreign forces according to a “realistic timetable.” Members of armed groups that “are not classified as terrorists” would be encouraged to adopt “peaceful political means” and gain jobs within the State administration.”

States Mr. al-Sadr: “I support the 12-Point Plan and encourage further effort in this regard. It conforms to our wishes.”

Later that evening, which finds us in residence at Mr. al-Sadr’s newly-refurbished guest house, resplendent in all the baroque gilding which, in the Middle East passes for style and elegance, Sheik Ali expands on the Iraq Question as best defined by the principles, political and religious, which are to govern the New Iraq. “What will be Iraq’s future between the secular and the religious,” he asks. “The answer to the one will provide guide and counsel to the other,” he asserts.

Sheik Ali believes that “with Iraq’s secular leadership crumbling, time has come for Iraq’s religious leadership to assert its legitimate role within the Iraqi body politic.” Assertively, he asks, “When, if not now, is it time to assert the Religious in advance of the Democratic? Is that not what the brave Buddhist Monks in Myanmar teach us?”

Sheik Ali thinks that benefit can be gained from a realization that “the controversies are more political and secular than religious. That means they are susceptible to a negotiated political settlement.” That’s where Arun Gandhi and he disagree, he says.

“The religious part is being introduced to rally support, stiffen the resistance and provide an elevated platform for resistance and a jihadi framework for the pursuit of the political. Common cause and an alliance among the religious leaders across the East-West, Islamic-Christian, divide will further help move those political pieces of the insurgency/ militia closer to a resolution.”
Sheik Ali views East-West, Islamic-Christian religious agreement “a special weapon here, if the right kind of understanding can be developed -- a giant task! If that happens, then the religious leadership can get behind the agreement or arrangement, and away from the promotion of sectarian violence.”

He cautions that while “all this will take time, it needs to be done. For without this kind of political movement, the military effort underway will not succeed, or in other words, the military is a necessary part of the equation, but not sufficient without the political agreement to see the process through to a conclusion.”

At the same time, however, Sheik Ali states that “while the liberation struggle is political and about power, one must not fail to appreciate that the ultimate goal is religious in nature, i. e. to push the Religious into the public sphere.” As Iraq’s religious leadership is looking for an increased role in the public life of Iraq, he finds “a strong basis for common ground with religious fundamentalists the world over, all yearning to come out from under the yoke of an ill-guided secularism, which is destroying Christian faith-based societies, as much as it is destroying Islamic faith-based societies by advancing atheism and materialism at the expense of the divine. Just as Pope Benedict XVI. has called for an “increased Christian role in the affairs of Europe,” we should concede an increased Islamic role in the affairs of the Levant.”

Sheik Ali advances what he sees as “a commonality of shared objectives and goals in asserting the temporal over the secular” as a venue for dialogue and cooperation between the Holy Church and the Shia, Sunni and Kurdish leadership. “Pope Benedict XVI. has rightly stated at Regensburg that the West must stop relegating “religion into the realm of subcultures” and openly acknowledge that, rightly understood, religion under girds all cultures and civilizations in all times and places,” he states. “Such is the case for Christianity in Europe and such is the case for Islam in the Middle East. If the West does not follow this path,” the Pope admonishes us, “a genuine “dialogue of cultures” will be impossible.”

A religious man, certainly a man of the Church, Sheik Ali points out that, at Mosul, Muslims and Christians jointly administer a Christian-Church-turned Mosque. He calls on this sense of brotherhood to be built upon. “The Church of St. Thomas the Apostle should be declared a Holy Place, to be situated within an autonomous enclave to be recognized by Iraq’s secular and temporal leadership,” he suggests. “At the same time, we should help our Muslim Brothers to come out from under an ill-guided secularism, just as they are called upon to help us in fulfilling the Pope’s call for “a less secular and equally more Christian public sphere.” If that were to result in a less secular, But democratic (!) Iraq, so be it. For secularism is supported by he who mistakes orthodoxy in defense of principle for authoritarianism, just as the Pope has stated, “orthodoxy appears authoritarian only to he who starts off with unorthodox assumptions.”
As we reflect upon how the war will evolve over time, a bright moon illuminating the Euphrates River, lending serenity to the mayhem all around us, Sheik Ali states: “Neither side on the great battlefield's divide anticipated the war's magnitude, nor its duration. Nor, I like to think, has either, yet, realized that its cause has been transformed, if not, yet, its conduct. As in other wars, forever recorded on history's golden scroll of honor, both sides pray to God, and each invokes His aid against the other. But, do we expect both prayers to be answered? Can they? I like to think, as Mr. Lincoln reminds us, the prayer of neither can be answered fully. The Almighty has His own purposes. ‘Woe unto the world because of offenses; for it must needs be that offenses come, but woe to that man by whom the offense cometh.’”

جميـــع حقـوق الطبع والنشر محفوظة لصوت العراق /
Copyright © 2000-2007 Sotaliraq.com - All rights reserved

Wednesday, October 3, 2007

CONVERSATIONS WITH SHEIK ALI AL-MUTHABA

Voice of Iraq Exclusive
جميـــع حقـوق الطبع والنشر محفوظة لصوت العراق /
Copyright © 2000-2007 Sotaliraq.com - All rights reserved
CONVERSATIONS WITH SHEIK ALI AL-MUTHABA

This is the first in a three-part series of articles, written for Voice of Iraq by Andreas Bartels, a German journalist and novelist, detailing the work of the JAM Political-Military Affairs and Special Operations Command and its Senior Commander, Sheik Ali Al-Muthaba, aka Mr. Albrecht Gero Muth. The series is based on a number of interviews, conducted over the course of several days in September and October 2007. The first part addresses itself on a proposed Summit of Militia Leaders, to be convened in furtherance of the process for national reconciliation, in advance of a national accord. The second part addresses itself on the ongoing transformation of JAM into an “Army for Peace,” the evolution of the Sadrist Movement into a Civil Rights Movement and Movement for the National Liberation of Iraq, and the Sadrist vision for the New and Democratic Iraq. The third part addresses itself on the Bagdad Security Plan, the Iraq War, the War on Terrorism and the Sadrist gameplan for the Road to National Awakening.

SHEIK ALI AL-MUTHABA CALLS FOR

SUMMIT OF MILITA LEADERS TO JUMPSTART

PROCESS FOR NATIONAL RECONCILIATION

Senior Commander of JAM Political-Military Affairs and Special Operations Command hopes for Iraq’s religious leaders to follow Hojatoleslam Moqtadr al-Sadr’s call for an immediate cessation of hostilities

By Andreas Bartels

Sadr City, BAGDAD, Al-Iraq, 3rd October 2007. It is mid-afternoon, on this dreary fall day, in late September, the sweltering heat hardly broken, the sun only intermittently cutting through the gray horizon’s tight cloud formations. Sadr City, this epiphany of bad big city planning, ever true to its reputation as a swamp of low-cost housing for the impoverished Shia masses of Iraq’s Capital City, holding forth all the charm of a Roman archeological dig across the far-flung plains of the Arabian desert.

Built in 1959 by Iraqi Prime Minister Abdul Karim Qassim, but later unofficially renamed in memory of the slain Shia leader Mohammad Mohammad Sadeq al-Sadr, it is home to more than a quarter of Bagdad’s population and a center of the Sadrist Movement, now run by the late Grand Ayatollah’s son, the Hoyatoleslam Moqtadr al-Sadr. Here, somewhere between the large municipal building, ordered built by Saddam as an edifice to gigantomania, and the Imam Ali Hospital, a clinic reminiscent of the worst of East German polyclinics, the streets loudly displaying the battle scars of the American occupation, I am about to meet, for another set of interviews, with Sheik Ali Al-Muthaba, the senior commander of the Political-Military Affairs and Special Operations Command of Jaish-Al-Mehdi, the Mehdi Army, the Sadrist Movement’s respected military wing.

“Good afternoon, my dear Andreas,” Sheik Ali greets me, the right arm raised in striking semi-Roman salute, as my armor-plated SUV finally made its way through the labyrinth of Sadr City streets which, the rice board planning notwithstanding, could have been aligned by a drunken Roman, and as I disembark in the courtyard of what would pass for a fine middle-class bungalow. Were it not for the gun turret and the four Mehdi militiamen, Kalashnikovs at the ready, eying me with the disquieting suspicion one would expect from an irregular. “I am delighted you chose to come.”

Did I have a choice, I wonder. My curiosity had been peaked in a series of emails, now approaching a level of interest, as I find myself on Sheik Ali’s circular distribution list of contacts, whom he chooses to keep up to date on developments at the front. I had found his reports prescient and to the point. They had stood me well in a series of articles for Austrian newspapers.

It would be my third visit with Sheik Ali, since first meeting him shortly after he assumed command in January, just as the Bagdad Security Plan was about to get underway. Also known as Albrecht Gero Muth, or by his father’s title as the Count Albi, he had come to my attention through his prior service as Special Advisor to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, an appointment, which had been held up for over a year due to revelations made by Sueddeutsche Zeitung that Mr. Muth had been in the employ of both the East and West German foreign intelligence services. When visiting Bagdad in spring, I was pleased when a friend in the UN press office offered to help arrange an introduction.

“I believe it is essential for Shia militia and Sunni insurgent leaders to take full advantage of the Hoyatoleslam’s order of 29 August 2007 for JAM to stand down, with the objective of advancing the process for national reconciliation, in furtherance of national accord,” Sheik Ali states, lemonade in hand, while we sit on the terrace, overlooking the war-torn neighborhood. It takes some getting used to finding oneself surrounded by machine-gun touting guerilla fighters. Young men, chosen as much for their tireless zeal, as the unwavering commitment to the cause. But, what cause?

“With Iraq’s secular leadership crumbling and the Battle for Bagdad running out of steam, one would hope for the religious leadership to assert their just place in Iraq’s political space and to convene a summit of militia and insurgency leaders, with the objective of reigning-in the out-of-control spiraling sectarian violence, which continues to grip the country.”

Not awaiting my reaction, Sheik Ali goes on to state that in calling on Dr. Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim (edit: head of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, whose military wing, the BADR organization, is battling JAM for dominance) and Sheik Harith al-Dhari (edit: the head of the Association of Islamic Scholars) to take all steps necessary to assert control over rogue Sunni insurgents and Shia militias, who spill the blood of innocent Iraqi women and children, the Hojatoleslam has taken an important initiative for reaching across what to many appears an unbridgeable sectarian divide. Intra-sectarian amalgamation will lend itself to inter-sectarian alignment, in advance of common cause in defense of Iraq form enemies, foreign and domestic.”

Sheik Ali states that the Hojatoleslam’s good-faith efforts to advance Shia-Sunni reconciliation, even in the face of near daily attacks on his followers, must be supported and should be expanded. Widely believed to be a principal architect of the JAM Battle Plan and a non-voting member of the Sadrist Political Affairs Committee, he is actively engaged on arranging for the national reconciliation process, which is expected to emanate from a purported decrease in sectarian violence, following the insertion of additional 30,000 U.S. troops earlier this year, under a controversial plan of the American President, Mr. George W. Bush.

Comments the Honorable Thomas R. Pickering, a Career Ambassador in the United States Foreign Service: “All Muth can do is what he is currently trying to do: to win over the nationalist elements of the insurgency and the militias to the American war effort. I suspect this may be in the too hard category, but I don’t believe it should be there as other approaches do not seem to be working.”

An immediate cessation of hostilities by insurgents and militias, resultant from limited success of the U.S. war plan, may provide a breather, in which a negotiated political settlement between all parties to the conflict could be advanced which, in turn, could prove a catalyst for the national reconciliation process, says the ever loquacious and affable Sheik Ali who, in red pants and double-breasted frock coat is reminiscent more of a World War One officer than a contemporary militia leader. Although comparisons to Lieutenant-Colonel T. E. Lawrence, known to history as “Lawrence of Arabia,” come to observers, naturally, he discourages such efforts.

“A different man, in another war, in another time. A great man, hero of mine, a source of enduring inspiration. I subject all my men to Colonel Lawrence’s inspired writings and keep his “Seven Pillars” next to my bed. But, … he was a British soldier, serving an Imperialist agenda. An agenda which, serving the new and democratic Iraq, … I aim to de-construct,” Mr. Muth interjects. Rushing to change the subject, as Naseer, his ever attentive and obliging manservant refreshes the lemonade decanter, serving up an array of delectable Arabian sweets, baked by his mother for the Sheik.

Born in West Germany, Mr. Muth grew up the protégé of his uncle, Mr. Gerald Goetting, the former long-time Vice President of East Germany, attending schools in West and East Germany, England, France, the United States, Israel and India, where his father, Alphonso Count Albi, a confidante of Mussolini’s, has been living since the end of World War Two. Stated the late former Indian Prime Minister, Mr. P. V. Narasimha Rao: “While your heart will always beat for Germany, the country of your birth, we know that your soul will always sing with the spirit, which is India.”

Apart from serving Mr. Annan, (2004-2006) he served Ambassador Vladimir Petrovsky, (1993-1996) a former First Deputy Foreign Minister of the Soviet Union and family friend, while the latter was serving as Director-General of United Nations Offices at Geneva, Estonian Foreign Minister Lennart Meri (1990-1991) and United States Senator Charles Robb. (1989-1990)

Sheik Ali rejects criticism that putting the religious leadership ahead of the secular government could further enhance sectarianism. “Au contraire, mon cher, the argument is being made by the victims that the secular government is not doing its job in securing their safety, are they now? We must not equate non-secularism with sectarianism, as if secularism were a cure-all panacea.”

Declaring himself a Papist, a follower of Pope Benedict XVI., especially on his call for an open dialogue between Christians and Muslims, Sheik Ali makes the argument that among the precipitating causes for the growing pains of Iraq’s young democracy is the re-introduction of the non-secular into the realm of the secular and the secular’s manifest difficulty in coming to terms with an appropriate role for the religious in the country’s political affairs.

Comments Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, the revered leader of Iraq’s Shia Muslim majority who, first to recognize Mr. Muth’s moderating influence on the Hoyatoleslam, encouraged him to take up command and who is highly laudable of the German noble’s tireless efforts in advance of Shia power: “Muth, and men like him, will for centuries define the reputation of Christendom in the Islamic world. Our prayers are with him, always.”

“I hold that Buddhist monks, leading the popular uprising against decades of military oppression in Myanmar, underscore the efficacy of the constructive role, which the religious can play in advance of the democratic,” Sheik Ali asserts. “I regret that, to date, I have been unable to help galvanize something similar in Iraq. Lawrence brought about the Arab Revolt and I can’t even rouse Iraq’s Shia religious leaders to rise,” he continues, resigned.

Defining the Iraq Question between the Secular and the Religious is a focus of our conversation, as daylight gives way to dusk. “If one were to look at it from a detached meta-theoretical perspective,” so Sheik Ali, having lid another cigarette, “one could even venture, if, perhaps, alone for argument’s sake, that, the violence removed, Western societies are witnessing similar fissures between the faithful and the wayward, as the non-secular asserts, what the Holy Father has rightly called, so I would like to think, its just role in the public sphere.”

Asked whether a summit of militia leaders would not deflect from the government’s national reconciliation efforts and further erode its tentative hold on power, Sheik Ali laughs. “There is no reconciliation process, there is not even a good-faith effort and, under Prime Minister al-Maliki, neither will happen.”

With follow-on to the tentative steps taken at a national reconciliation forum in Bagdad in December being held in near permanent abeyance, for one parochial reason or another, the proposed national reconciliation process remains just that, proposed, he states and that, in the absence of process, bearing in mind the immediate need for goal-oriented action to halt the blood-letting, an emergency summit of militia leaders may just provide the impetus necessary for advance of the political objectives of the Bagdad Security Plan.

“As Sadrists, we are committed to the Bagdad Security Plan,” Sheik Ali asserts and, to my surprise, goes on to state, “We want the Americans to succeed. The United States Army’s victory in Bagdad is also the victory of the Mehdi Army, as the one cannot succeed without the other. As was impressed upon me by the Americans, success in the Battle for Bagdad is a precondition for the timely and phased redeployment without replacement of U.S. forces, out of a position of post-Battle victory. I am committed to both.”

Since assuming command, it has been the objective of Mr. Muth’s mission to align JAM with the U.S. Army and the Sadrist Movement with the U.S. national interest. States Ambassador Pickering: “To the extent Muth has been successful in aligning al-Sadr’s Mehdi Army with the United States Army, and the Sadrist movement with U.S. interests, and there is some evidence for that, he has made a major contribution to the American war effort.”

JAM and the United States Army are cooperating in advance of the Bagdad Security Plan and now, with a “political arrangement” in the offing, beyond. “It is as if the ground were shifting beneath one’s feet. The progress being made by the U.S. Army and JAM in reigning in Al-Qaeda/Mesopotamia and thwarting Iran’s efforts to tarnish the good name and reputation of JAM by supporting rogue elements must be built upon, in advance of common cause, in furtherance of shared objectives and goals: a stable Iraq, at peace with self and her neighbors,” the militia leader says.

States Mr. George W. Bush, the American President: “The turn-about face of the Mehdi Army and its willingness to cooperate in advance of restoring law and order to the streets of Baghdad is nothing short of stunning and we have Mr. Muth, in part, to thank for it. Although it is too early to reach a definitive judgment, his tireless efforts to bring the parties to the conflict to the table deserve our attention.”

Exclaims Sheik Ali: “Now is not the time to go wobbly on the President’s grand design for the Middle East as, contrary to the perception of the uninformed, roll-back is working. Nor, short term, must we hold the attainable, an immediate end to the blood shed, hostage to the desirable, the decommissioning, demobilization and rehabilitation of the militias.” The one, he asserts, will flow from the other.

“In that, I am a follower of Dr. George Schwab of City College of New York, one of America’s leading state theoreticians, who has rightly drawn a fine line of distinction between “the enemy” and “the foe,” stating that, contrary to “the foe,” who must be destroyed, “the enemy” can be “an ally” in advance of “the tactical,” even where, at least for now, agreement on “the strategic” may prove elusive.”

“The militias,” Count Albi explains, “understand that renunciation of violence is a prerequisite for inclusion in the political process and that continued violence will work against he who seeks a future, political or religious, in the new Iraq.” A point, which he made in his widely-noted statement to the Foreign Relations Committee of the United States Senate on 1 February 2007.

Asked about his assessment of the government’s capacity to disarm the militias, Sheik Ali replies, wryly: “Good Luck. Not on their own. Not without a post-Liberation national accord, which defines the principles, political and religious, which are to govern the new and democratic Iraq. The one cannot be separated from the other. With the Prime Minister it’s as much about incompetence, as it is about unwillingness. And we have given up in our effort with him on both counts.”

Asserting the State’s monopoly on lethal force, while underscoring that restoration of public order and sovereignty is linked, just as is national reconciliation and national liberation, Sheik Ali laments an undue particularization of militias.

Citing the American experience in regularizing its militias as National Guard, under primary provincial command, but overall national command, he welcomes ongoing efforts to integrate elements of JAM into the Iraqi Army and security forces. Citing Sunni and Shia tribal leaders’ concern about the slow pace, he calls for the effort to be accelerated and expanded. Such, he says, could be facilitated by a Cabinet-level Department for Militia Affairs.

”The militias are not at the root of the issue at-hand. They are manifestations thereof,” claims Sheik Ali. “I can assure you that the Hoyatoleslam is committed to resolving the issue in a constructive, comprehensive and non-discriminatory manner.”

He goes on to state that detailed propositions have been advanced to Sunni insurgent and Shia militia leaders, with whom JAM is engaged on the Ninneveh process, an informal cross-sectarian consultative process, he helped launch while still serving Mr. Annan. The Governments of Iraq and the United States, among others, are also being consulted.

Consultations, Sheik Ali says, which must be seen integral to a “political arrangement” with the Hoyatoleslam, advanced by the American Vice President, Mr. Dick Cheney, for whom Mr. Muth and his wife hosted a 65th birthday reception at DACOR Bacon House, the prestigious foreign service club in Washington, D.C., in walking distance from the White House.

The sun setting, beyond the distant firmament’s darkening horizon, we move from the terrace to the drawing room, where we are joined by senior officers under his command, including, to my surprise, a Turkish and an Israeli liaison officer, with whom Mr. Muth attended school in the Golan Heights in the 1970s.

Sheik Ali holds out great hopes for the expanded UN political mandate and the new French diplomacy. “The French have great experience in facilitating post-conflict national reconciliation, in countries around the world,” he says.

“The establishment of the UN Support Office, pursuant to UN Security Council Resolution 1770, provides the institutional framework and logistical/ operational support structure for UN mediation, with the objective of jumpstarting the process for national reconciliation, to wit the Summit of Militia Leaders could lend critical impetus.”

Sheik Ali believes that “somewhere between withdrawal of all foreign forces and non-interference by outsiders a historic compromise can be found” and he hopes that French diplomacy can be tapped towards that end.

As we get ready for Iftar, the ceremonial breaking of the bread during the Muslim Holy month of Ramadan, the conversation focuses on whether to engage versus annihilate “extremists” versus “terrorists” and how to discern workable definitions, on which to base the underlying decision. A topic of exploration between Mr. Muth and General Raymond Odierno, the second in command of U.S. and Coalition Forces in Iraq.

“General Odierno and I have been at this since early 2006. I have set forth three principles which, I like to think, should enlighten a coordinated approach to insurgents and militias. First, national reconciliation is a process at the nexus between the governmental and the non-governmental in advance of post-conflict accord. Second, national reconciliation comes at the far-end of conflagration, at the point when the parties to the conflict realize the futility of armed struggle in advance of political objectives. Third, and above all, extremists are outflanked at the far-end, not the near-end,” Sheik Ali expands.

In silent repose, guests assemble around the dinner table, heads bowed, in prayer. “In what language do you pray,” I ask. “In Latin, off course,” comes the near instant reply, with Sheik Ali displaying the crucifix, presented to him as a gift by the Hoyatoleslam, with the admonition to wear it at all times. “But, I don’t care what language you pray in, nor even what God you pray to, as long as you pray to him, long and hard. As the old soldier’s prayer goes, ‘I pray to you this day, Oh God, should I forget Thee,, do not Thou forget me.’”

Late to arrive is a senior General of the Iraqi Army, one of Saddam’s promising Generals, who is among those, who have only recently been recalled to active duty. Quietly. Given the political sensitivity of the issue. He provides an in-depth update on casualty lists and U.S.-Iraqi joint operations to demonstrate the advances being made on the Bagdad Security Plan as a result of JAM’s cooperation with the U.S. Army and the Iraqi Army and security forces. In November, General Odierno will provide another important update on the Bagdad Security Plan and JAM is committed to ensure that the report will be positive in showing a demonstrable decline in sectarian violence in the Capital City.

“One of ours,” Sheik Ali preempts my inquiry into what an Iraqi General was doing at his dinner table. “We are all brothers here, no matter what uniform the circumstances of the hour force upon us.”

There is a general consensus at the dinner table that the U.S. Army’s success in enlisting JAM and Sunni insurgent groups in common cause constitutes the singular most significant development to come out of the Bagdad Security Plan. The change in attitude on the part of the United States Government to engage extremists is noted and welcomed.

“That’s the rationale under girding General Petraeus’s decision to reach out to insurgents and militias, willing to lay down their arms and to join the democratic process. We wholeheartedly support these efforts and are an integral part of it,” states Sheik Ali. “It’s the one positive development which, as yet, makes me hopeful that Iraq can be preserved. If we are permitted to harness the momentum gained into movement made.”

In response to my question as to why the Government’s own efforts at national reconciliation have failed, Sheik Ali laments the flaws in conceptual and operational approach taken. “The Prime Minister continues to fail to appreciate that resolution to grievances, underlying whatever we want to call the mayhem, which is today’s Iraq, is both a precondition for and function of reconciliation in advance of a national accord on the principles of governance,” he replies.

My interjection that I would have expected those issues to have been resolved by the Constituent Assembly, tasked with drafting Iraq’s Constitution, is brushed aside with a cursory, “Obviously, they have not. At best, the Constituent Assembly operated under time constraints, if not an outright dictate of the Provisional Authority.”

And, upon further reflection, he continues: “In the case of Iraq we are not even so much speaking of reconciliation, but conciliation in the first instance, as these tribes really never have come to terms with the settlement imposed by the former Colonial rulers. Unless the national reconciliation process is willing to address all issues, political and religious, which continue to divide Iraqi civil society, the effort will remain doomed to failure.”

That is why, Sheik Ali continues, the Hoyatoleslam has proposed a “New Contract for All Iraqis,” a contract to be based on majority rule, with minority rights protected, in advance of empowerment of all Iraqis, political and economic.

Professing a lack of confidence in the ability of the Government and the Prime Minister of Iraq to lead the country through the State of Emergency, Sheik Ali affirms the Hoyatoleslam’s call for the Prime Minister to stand aside and for the National Unity Government to yield to the National Salvation Government. He asks, throughout, why the non-secular leadership should not be asked to shoulder the burden of governance if, on its own, the secular government is not able to.

Sheik Ali believes Iraq to be on the eve of a Great Revolution, a revolution, perhaps, he wonders, as great as the American Revolution and the French Revolution. “Whether or not post-Liberation Shia Iraq will be friendly towards the West will, in large measure depend, on whether it came to the fore with or against the West’s help. The same will guide the ability to bridge the Shia-Sunni gap. Will Sunni Arab States continue to undercut Shia empowerment, or will enlightenment guide them to realize the historic current sweeping the Arabian Sea?”

Points, he imparted upon Arab leaders during a recent tour of the Middle East, including Mr. Hosni Mubarak, the President of Egypt, and Colonel Muamar Qadaffi, the Libyan leader.

To Sheik Ali, denouement of the Iraq Question pivots as much on liberation from foreign occupation, as empowerment of the disenfranchised. That’s where national liberation and civil rights connect, the Hoyatoleslam becomes a fusion of Mahatma Gandhi and Dr. Martin Luther King, he asserts.

“The Hoyatoleslam’s progressive message to all Iraqis, Shia, Sunni, Kurd and Christian, is one of Conciliation, Nonviolence and Tolerance, in furtherance of Liberation and Empowerment, in advance of National Unity,” he retorts briskly to my question, whether he was not stretching it, when comparing the Hoyatoleslam to the Leader of the Indian Independence Movement and the Leader of the American Civil Rights Movement.

“One People, One Country, One God,” he exclaims the Movement’s new credo, a credo, he recites, repeatedly, with the fervor the Papist attaches to the canon of the Catechism.

“The Hoyatoleslam stands for Peace. The Mehdi Army stands for Peace. Neither the Mehdi Army, nor the Sadrist Movement threaten the safety and well-being of Americans in the United States, nor the safety and well-being of America’s allies, at-home.”

And, as if to pre-empt a question doubting the veracity of his statement, he continues: ”Why the inexplicable concern, if not fear, of including the non-secular in the governance of Iraq,” he asks. “Al-Sadr is Iraq and Iraq is al-Sadr. In front of al-Sadr marches Iraq. Behind al-Sadr marches Iraq. In al-Sadr marches Iraq. To what extent one is willing to concede a role for the non-secular in secular affairs in order to preserve Iraq’s young democracy, or whether one is intent on sacrificing democracy at the altar of secularism, and at the expense of the non-secular, is for the Iraqi people, and the Iraqi people alone, to determine as part of the national accord, which will emanate at the far end of the national reconciliation process. When, if not now?”

Sheik Ali does not sense that Iraq’s God-fearing and peace-loving people have given-up on a multi-ethnic and multi-religious Iraq, whole and free, even though he concedes that it will take an all-out effort to keep the country together. Within this context, he amplifies the Hoyatoleslam’s opposition to any effort to re-align Iraq along Federal lines, as it is viewed a precursor to partition.

“We may not, altogether, succeed but, by God, we shall not fail for not trying. If partition be Iraq’s destiny, then not, because some foreign power wills it. If partition be Iraq’s destiny, then only, if it were to spring up from among the Iraqis and not, the Hoyatoleslam calls on all Iraqis, without a fight. A fight, the end to which we, as children of God, may not see, but which will end in an Iraq, under God, whole and free.”

Sheik Ali neither confirms, nor denies direct contact with Dr. Ayman Al-Zawahiri, Osama bin-Laden’s second in command, and Abu-Ayeeb al-Masri, the head of Al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia. He is widely rumored to have met Al-Masri on repeated occasions, since arriving in Iraq in October 2006.

“I like to believe that the same rationale at work in talking to Sunni insurgents and Shia militias applies to a willingness to talk to AQ/M, with the objective of getting AQ/M to split from AQ/Central, the same way we got Sunni insurgents to split from AQ/M,” he says. “But, I don’t have any takers for that one. Not yet.”

In order to amplify his point in calling for engagement of extremists, where warranted, Sheik Ali points to the ongoing effort of Mr. Hamid Karzai, the Afghan President, in talking to the Taliban, facilitated by the German Foreign Intelligence Service in a series of secret meetings in Geneva, Switzerland.

“I can well envision the return of the Taliban, under some terms of a power-sharing agreement,” he states to my consternation. The notion of Sheik Omar’s return, I quiz him. “Long-term, I see the politicization of Al-Qaeda,” he replies. “Not under bin-Laden, nor Dr. Zawahiri, for that matter, but new leadership. We have to look to the next generation of Al-Qaeda leaders and influence them, if we want to neutralize the organization from within. Al-Qaeda, both the reality of its vision and the figment of its organization, will only be defeated from within.”

Nor can I get an answer to my inquiry into the expose in Sueddeutsche Zeitung, (“Special Agent Albrecht Gero Muth does a lot for his image,” SZ, Munich/ Berlin, 2./3. August 2003) which exposes Mr. Muth as an agent of German intelligence.

”Ah, someone who googles in German,” Mr. Muth tries to brush off the question, somewhat bemused. Only upon my insistence does he force himself to reply, now somewhat sterner in demeanor.

”May I remind you that the Parliamentary inquiry into the matter concluded that, on the basis of documentation provided by the German Federal Government, my affiliation with German intelligence, alleged, could neither be confirmed, nor denied. Furthermore, at the time, the German Federal Government stated that it does not, as a matter of principle, comment on my activities, past or present. I shall not want to deflect from the wisdom of the findings of the German Federal Parliament, nor the statement of the German Federal Government.”

جميـــع حقـوق الطبع والنشر محفوظة لصوت العراق /

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Thursday, September 20, 2007

Wooing the Insurgents - Part Two (United States Seeking a Pact with Al-Sadr)

Wooing the insurgents

Part Two
(United States Seeking a Pact with Al-Sadr)

By ALBRECHT GERO MUTH

Baghdad, AL-IRAQ, 20 September 2007. RIGHT TRUTH EXCLUSIVE. “By all assessments, the U.S. Administration’s estimate of 18-24 months to build up Iraqi security forces, especially the police, to necessary levels of numbers and competency is unrealistic. Against that background, enlisting nationalist elements of the insurgency into the domestic political process seems like the best hope to improve Iraq’s internal security situation and thence make possible the withdrawal of all foreign forces and --- the ultimate goal --- the restoration of full sovereignty.”

When first making this recommendation in a UPI Outside View Commentary on 29 November 2005, then as part of then-UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan’s good offices, I was smiled at. The Jones Report, presented to the United States Congress earlier this month, affirms the assessment of the continued inability of Iraq’s Armed Forces and Security Forces to protect Iraq against all enemies, domestic and foreign. Yet, again, the Bush Administration is asking for an extension of time. The time frame given in 2007 is as unrealistic as when given in 2005.

Since its original success in toppling Saddam, the war has taken on a dynamic of its own, well beyond its original intentions, because from the outset the U.S. pursued a flawed strategy, due to erroneous assumptions and a lack of understanding of and appreciation for the operant dynamic of the Iraqi body politic. The mishandling of the Hoyatoleslam Moqtadir al-Sadar is a case-in-point, bearing in mind, for example, that the Mehdi Army started out friendly towards the United States, an ally in the fight to topple Saddam, a potential ally in the fighting, ahead. Until Fallujah and Najaf, in 2004, were permitted to let relations get out of kilter and Ambassador Zalil Khalilzad proved himself incapable in mending broken fences. How could he, if the proposition on the table was for the Hoyatoleslam to break ranks with Shia unity? A non-starter! How could he, who was being portrayed as a firebrand anti-American cleric, who was considered persona non grata and subject to arrest, if not assassination?

Anti-American? Does being for national liberation, for troop withdrawal make him anti-American? I should think not. For in that, he stands shoulder-to-shoulder with the Democrats in the United States Congress and a majority of Americans. Does believing that the occupation is illegal make him anti-American? I should think not. For in that, he stands shoulder-to-shoulder with most of the Arab and Islamic World and Europe.

Regrettably, erroneous assumptions and a lack of understanding of and appreciation for the dynamic of the Iraqi body politic continue to under gird the Administration’s conduct of the war, especially its outreach to Shia militias and Sunni insurgents. For too long, militias and insurgents have been talked about, rather than talked to. “I just think in some ways we probably all underestimated the depth of the mistrust and how difficult it would be for these guys to come together,” U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said in customary understatement.

At last, a new realism promises to inform Administration policy. In no position, on its own, to achieve the stated war objectives, the attitude of the United States Government towards enlisting extremists is changing. States “a State Department official that what is needed is a greater willingness to engage hard line forces on both sides of the sectarian divide as well as the Iranians and Syrians.” In that, the statement expands further on my exchange with General Raymond Odierno at the American Enterprise Institute on 18 January 2006.

Delineating definitions between extremists versus terrorists, the General and I discussed, will prove critical in this regard. As General Odierno stated: “When we look at it from a United States perspective, it’s about who threatens the United States. … I guess, you have to get into the technical definitions between the two. The bottom line is who threatens the safety of our citizens in the United States and as well as our allies, and we will deal with it based on that.”

Neither the Mehdi Army, nor the Sadrist Movement threaten the safety of Americans in the United States, nor the lives of America’s allies at-home. To the contrary, at this time, JAM is fully cooperating with the U.S. Army on the Baghdad Security Plan, in restoring law and order to the streets of Western Baghdad, and now, beyond Baghdad, with the Hoyatoleslam supporting the U.S. Army’s efforts to enlist Shia tribal leaders in Western Iraq in advance of common cause in the defense of Iraq.

The favorable report, this date given by GEN Odierno, on decreasing sectarian violence in Baghdad is noted. The United States Army rests assured of JAM’s full cooperation in ensuring that the report, which GEN Odierno will provide to the chain of command in November, will be positive.

The objectives, for which many a militiaman and insurgent fights, are not, as some would have it, defined by the East-West difference, but spring from internal to the ME. If we look at the leadership of militias and insurgency, we find many a son of the upper classes, in open rebellion against their parents, the corruption and decadence, for which they stand. Islamic Revivalism, National Liberation, Empowerment, and Nationalism are currents in a sea of change. As Westerners, we come into the gage because of our support for these corrupt and decadent regimes. I advocate in favor of our support for the revolutionary potential of the masses, contra the established order, which does not serve the people. Aux barricades, mes coupins.

The Great Iraqi Revolution is in the offing. A revolution, possibly, as significant in its signal impact for the world, as was 1776 and 1789, directed more against the homegrown tyrant than the foreign occupier. Let the old order collapse, it has served its time. I implore Americans of goodwill, heirs all to the legacy of 1776. As yet, President Bush has the capacity to become the Great Liberator. To be right up there with the Great Emancipator.

Now is not the time to go wobbly on the President’s grand design for transforming the ME, for permitting the good people of the ME to shed the shackles of an order imposed by yesterday’s Colonial rulers. An order, ignorant of the very operant dynamic of the societies upon which it was thrust.

Be on stage, Mr. President, when the curtain is drawn on a new era. It is upon you to choose between the desire of the people for change versus the calls of the ruling elites to preserve a self-serving status-quo.

Shia Iraq’s future relations with the United States will be defined by whether it came about with U.S. support, or against it. Just as mending the Shia-Sunni rift will depend, in part, on whether Shia Iraq will have come about with or without Sunni support.

Let us, all together, make the Iraq War the turning point, historically-speaking, the same way that a Poland beyond reach (1914) led to the demise of the order of Vienna. (1815)

The United States Army is committed to a pact with the Mehdi Army, General Odierno on record as seeking a meeting with the Hoyatoleslam. The military track being augmented by a political track, involving direct contact at the highest levels of the Administration, in furtherance of a “political arrangement” with the Hoyatoleslam, advanced by U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney. Resolution to the modalities, under which U.S.A. is to enter Basra, to fill the void left by the British, will further affirm a new spirit of mutuality. Now that advance of U.S. war aims and JAM war aims are no longer viewed as a zero sum.

The Hoyatoleslam’s order of 29 August 2007 for JAM to stand down for up to six months stands confirmed. The rules of engagement, in effect since BSP inception, shall apply. I was concerned about the impact of this unilateral step on our Battle Plan, military and political, a step taken by the Hoyatoleslam in response to the adverse fallout resultant from the shootings at Karbala, where we had been ambushed. With the course of action, upon which the order launched us, marred with serious peril for the Hoyatoleslam, JAM and the Movement, I advocated in favor of keeping implementation of the order in abeyance, pending a move on the part of the U.S. Army, a goodwill gesture. That move came, within days of my intercession, in Western Baghdad, in form of a lessening of U.S.A. incursions as a result of JAM standing down.

The Hoyatoleslam calls on Badr to follow JAM’s lead and, together with the U.S. Army, work towards restoring public order in advance of early restoration of sovereignty and self-governance to the people of Iraq. He is prepared to contemplate extending the order, in keeping with the general outline for the “re-deployment without replacement” of U.S. forces, scheduled to commence in December 2007 and to run through summer 2008. As we have stated, consistently, in order to advance cooperation between JAM and the United States Army: “The Hoyatoleslam Moqtadir al-Sadar supports the BSP, (military track) with the goal of restoring law and order to the streets of Iraq’s Capital city, in furtherance of the timely withdrawal/ redeployment of all foreign forces from Iraq, regular and irregular, parallel to a process for national reconciliation, (political track) which takes account of Shia unity in advance of Shia empowerment, political and economic, and which acknowledges the constructive role of the religious in the public sphere of the New and democratic Iraq.”

Let us turn 9 April 2008, Iraq Liberation Day, with American soldiers, Mission Accomplished, redeploying, marching down the avenue, into a day of Iraqi-American friendship. With the people of a new and democratic Iraq celebrating the American soldier as the liberator he was, rather than the occupier he may have become.

Calling the parallel development of recruiting and funding/ arming (!) Sunni insurgent groups the most significant trend in Iraq and one that could lend itself to the advance of national reconciliation, General David Petraeus has stated: “This is a very, very important component of reconciliation, because it’s happening from the bottom up. The bottom-up piece is much farther along than any of us would have anticipated a few months back. It’s become the focus of a great deal of effort, as there is a sense that this can bear a lot of fruit.”

As Sadrists, we support the U.S. Army’s equitable and non-discriminatory outreach to Sunni insurgent groups and Shia militias. The effort mirrors our own efforts within the Ninneveh process. Between JAM, Badr, Anbar-Awakening, Islamic Army, the 1923 Brigade, the Iraq Question may, as yet, be pacified. The ongoing battlefield re-alignment proving the thesis of Professor George Schwab of the City College of New York, one of America’s leading State theoreticians, that “the enemy” need not be “the foe,” but can be “an ally in advance of common tactical goals,” even where “agreement on larger strategic objectives” remains, at least for now, elusive. Seen as conducive to advance of national reconciliation, bottom-up, it also takes account of three important assertions, I continue to make:

Extremists are outflanked on the far-end, not the near-end. The approach taken to enlist moderates to split extremists is erroneous. On the continuum of extremism you go out as far as you can, co-opt the one extremist at the far-end, amenable to your overtures, and work your way backward. Rather than, with the help of some moderate, forward. The same rationale applies, which required Nixon to open-up to China, or Reagan to USSR. Couldn’t have been done by a moderate, could it?

Reconciliation comes at the far-end of conflagration. At the point, when the parties to the conflict are either dead, or realize the futility of armed struggle in advance of political objectives. This however, comes only at the far-end of exhaustion, or utter brutality. Or, granted, when the civilian population is turned. Neither of which was the case going into BSP. Nor, did I expect it to be the case in the short time frame given. The United States Army proved me wrong.

Reconciliation takes place external to government, at the nexus of the non-governmental and governmental levels of action. The approach taken, whereby one thinks that legislation alone will help realign extremists is erroneous. What is needed is a process, external to government, in which extremists get to advance their political objectives, upon renunciation of violence, with the objective of their integration into the body politic.

The meeting in Finland, 31 August – 3 September 2007, convened by former Finnish President Marthi Ahtisaari, under the auspices of the Crisis Management Initiative, and in cooperation with the John W. McCormack School of Policy Studies at the University of Massachusetts at Boston, is a marker on Iraq’s Freedom Trail. It brought together Shia militia and Sunni insurgent leaders and could be seen as manifestation of the goodwill on the part of the parties to the conflict to be engaged, constructively. JAM was represented at senior level.

“Participants committed themselves to work towards a robust framework for a lasting settlement,” a statement issued by CMI said. It added that the participants “agreed to consult further” on a list of 12 recommendations to begin reconciliation talks, including resolving political disputes through non-violence and democracy. The recommendations included a call for weapons decommissioning and establishment of an independent commission to supervise and verify the decommissioning process. The agreement called for all parties to be included in the reconciliation process and to accept the results of the negotiations, while working “to end international and regional interference” in Iraq, with the objective of ending the presence of foreign forces according to a “realistic timetable.” Members of armed groups that “are not classified as terrorists” would be encouraged to adopt “peaceful political means” and gain jobs within the State administration.”

Meeting participants agreed upon a 12 Point Plan:



1. Resolve political issues through non-violence and democracy

2. Prohibit use of arms while in talks

3. Form independent commission to disarm groups in verifiable manner

4. Accept results of negotiations

5. End international interference

6. Commit to protect human rights

7. Assure independence and effectiveness of the law and the courts, especially Constitutional Court

8. Full participation of all parties in political process and governance

9. Take all steps to end violence, killings, forced displacement and damage to infrastructure

10. Establish independent body to explore how to deal with the past in way, which will unite nation

11. Support efforts to make political process successful and to protect Iraq’s unity and sovereignty

12. Participants commit to principles as complete set of rules

As Sadrists, we fully support the 12 point plan. It conforms to our own thinking, as set forth in the IRAQ SITUATION INTERIM REPORT. (19 July 2007)

Beginning of Excerpt

IV.1. Programmatically: Support a “New Contract for All Iraqis:” to be based on Hope, Tolerance, Nonviolence, Conciliation and Unity.

IV.2. Operationally: IV.2.a. Internal to Iraq: National Reconciliation Process: A National Reconciliation (All Party) Conference, to which all stakeholders in the Iraqi body politic are to be invited both, non-governmental and governmental, should be called for. To be preceeded by the Summit of Militia Leaders and Insurgency Leaders.

An Eminent Persons Group … could help steer post-Conference follow-up and follow-on.

We should make it clear that we fully support the calls for an end to sectarian killings, the disarmament of militias and an equitable distribution of oil-revenue, presupposing that

1. The unique role of Iraq as the sole Arab State with a duly-constituted Government, constituted on the basis of the free-will exercise of a free people, be respected and appreciated;

2. The fundamental human rights and civil liberties enshrined in the Iraqi “Bill of Rights,” integral part of the Iraqi Constitution, along with full recognition of majority rule and the role of the religious in Iraq’s public sphere be respected and appreciated;

3. The constructive parallelism between non-interference by outside powers/ withdrawal of all foreign forces, regular and irregular, restoration of public order/ sovereignty and self-governance be respected and appreciated;

4. The constructive role, played by the emerging Movement for the National Liberation of Iraq from Foreign Occupation, in advance of sub. para.3, be respected;

5. A cessation of hostilities be advanced, concomitant to the redeployment of U.S. forces, as both a precondition for and function of the fledgling process for national reconciliation, which must advance agreement on all principles, political and religious, which are to govern the new Iraq;

6. An amnesty, general and blanket, be offered to all Iraqi nationals, willing to lay down their arms and to join the democratic political process;

7. The Draft Oil Bill, pending before Parliament, be re-drafted to ensure ownership of Iraq’s oil reserves by the People.


End of Excerpt

It is the Hoyatoleslam’s fervent hope that the new spirit of mutuality between JAM and the U.S. Army will prove itself amenable to de-militarizing the Iraq Question. We do not seek an immediate withdrawal of all American forces, nor even consider such a move in the best interest of Iraq. For as long as we are assured that they will be withdrawn in the fullness of time. With the Government of Iraq failing General Odiierno on his call to devise a policy to integrate into the political process the 80% of militias and insurgents, operating within the law, I am optimistic that a coordinated effort, on the part of the American Combatant Commanders, to engage amenable elements of the Sunni insurgency and Shia militias in a common front to restore law and order will provide a realistic basis for a battlefield victory for the United States Army.

In particular, the Hoyatoleslam hopes, possibly for the U.N., under the expanded political mandate pursuant to UNSCR-1770, to call, soonest, for an All-Party National Reconciliation Conference, at the nexus of the governmental and non-governmental, with the objective of jumpstarting the non-existent process towards National Accord. Furthermore, he holds that a Summit of Militia Leaders could prove an important catalyst towards the All-Party National Reconciliation Conference. His thoughts on the issue, underscoring a convergence of views on issues, where positions are shared and mutual interests intersect, are a matter of the diplomatic record. He stands ready to assist in bringing the meeting summit about.

Personally, I firmly believe that AQ/M must be engaged along lines similar to those, which warrant U.S.A. engagement of militias and insurgents. A wedge must be driven between those elements of AQ/M, who are Iraqi nationals versus those who are not. That could enable us to drive a wedge between AQ/M and AQ/Central, especially should an AQ/M, re-configured, be eligible for participation in the post-Liberation political process. Possibly through the Mujahedeen Shura Council. Those members of AQ/M, nationals of Iraq, willing to lay down their arms and to join the democratic process, must be eligible for a general and blanket amnesty which, following national accord, will have to be available to all Iraqis. I do not see what fault line, other than Iraqi versus non-Iraqi, can be drawn, integral to national reconciliation. I am setting forth my thinking on the issue in-reference in the IRAQ SITUATION INTERIM REPORT. (19 July 2007) The Hoyatoleslam has rejected my recommendations in this regard.

Today’s militiaman and insurgent will be Iraq’s leader of tomorrow. He must agree that Iraqis do not kill Iraqis. Renunciation of the use of violence is a mandatory pre-requisite for inclusion in a general and blanket amnesty to be afforded all Iraqis willing to lay down their arms and to join the democratic process. Lack of progress on amnesty is disappointing and proving not helpful. Amnesty is an important means, integral to Demobilization, Decommissioning and Rehabilitation. As I said in my statement to the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee on 1 February 2007: “An improving security situation will, in the fullness of time, enable the Hoyatoleslam to address the future of the Mehdi Army, constructively and innovatively. While the issue should be pushed, it need not be pressed. As it may prove difficult for the Hoyatoleslam, if alone on religious grounds, to disband the Mehdi Army, we may have to look at innovative approaches to “deactivation” vs. “decommissioning” vs. “demobilization.”

I like to believe, in forging an entente cordial between JAM and the U.S. Army and aligning Sadrists with U.S. interests, important progress has been made in the months gone by. Within this context, I suggest, the order of 29 August 2007 assumes added signal import. As Iraq looks to ways to redress the militia and insurgent question, the American experience of transforming America’s militias and integrating them into a uniform forces structure provides an important example. Just, as in replacing the old Militia Act of 1792, the 1903 Dick Act thrust the Federal government into the picture by establishing procedures for a more direct and active role in organizing, training and equipping the National Guard in line with the standards established for the regular Army, so an inspired Iraqi political leadership will have to advance an organized militia, (National Guard) with an organization, pay, discipline and equipment of the National Guard to be the same as that of the regular Iraqi Army. Within this context, a Federal structure for Iraq could prove useful in enabling the re-constituting of eligible elements of the militias as National Guard under primary regional command and control, but overall command and control of the Army Chief of Staff.

ALBRECHT GERO MUTH, aka Skaikh Ali Al-Muthaba, a former Special Adviser to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, serves as Senior Commander of the Jaish-al-Mehdi Political-Military Affairs and Special Operations Command. Shaikh Ali is widely acknowledged for his role in drafting the Mehdi Army Battle Plan and for facilitating the “entente cordial” between the Mehdi Army and the United States Army, operant since inception of the Baghdad Security Plan in spring 2007, in advance of restoring law and order to the streets of Iraq’s Capital city. Comments the Honorable THOMAS R. PICKERING, a Career Ambassador in the United States Foreign Service: “To the extent, Muth has been successful in aligning al-Sadr’s Mehdi Army with the United States Army, and the Sadrist movement with U.S. interests, and there is some evidence for that, he has made a major contribution to the American war effort. This article expands on an earlier article, entitled: “Wooing the Insurgents,” Outside View Commentary, United Press International, 29 November 2005.

Posted in part at Right Truth

Reflections on the IRAQ SITUATION INTERIM REPORT

Headquarters

JAM Political-Military Affairs and Special Operations Command

Sadr City BAGDAD, Al Iraq

The Senior Commander

8 Ramadan 1428, 20 September 2007

Reflections on the IRAQ SITUATION INTERIM REPORT
(4 Rajab 1428, 19 July 2007)

Reference is made to the IRAQ SITUATION INTERIM REPORT, 4 Rajab 1428/ 19 July 2007. The Command stands by the Report’s descriptive and analytical sections as well as, above all, its proscriptive recommendations now, but for the operant paragraphs pertaining to a proposed course of action to be taken with regard to AQ/M, which has been disallowed, approved by the Hoyatoleslam for operationalization, integral to the Battle Plan, Revised, and implementation.

The Command makes the following points:

Assessing BSP Success/ Failure: On 10 and 11 September 2007, GEN Petraeus and AMB Crocker testified before Joint Meetings of the U.S. House Armed Services/ Foreign Affairs and U.S. Senate Armed Services/ Foreign Relations Committees on BSP progress resultant from the surge, announced by the President on 10 January 2007. In short, the GEN stated that the insertion of additional 28,500 U.S. combat troops has permitted U.S. and Iraqi military and security forces to make measurable progress, in some areas, in improving the security situation, while not in others, and that while the Iraqi Government’s failure to take advantage from improved security in furtherance of the political objectives, set forth in the Congressionally-mandated benchmarks, was disappointing, the situation on the ground is, at once, sufficiently well advanced to permit the commencement of a phased “redeployment without replacement” of U.S. forces, to commence in December 2007 and to run through summer 2008, as it is too early to make a final determination as to what course of action to pursue, as a result of which further time, into March 2008, was requested.

The GEN’s Congressional testimony confirmed my earlier assertions in this regard: “The official line in GEN Petraeus’s report will be that the U.S. Army is doing that, which it is expected to do and can do. And, successfully. But, that it is the Iraqis who are not living up to their end of the bargain. The argument will be advanced that there is evidence of recent improvements from a military standpoint and that even though these advances have not yet translated into noticeable progress on the political front, the surge should be given more time, into spring 2008.” (Albrecht Gero Muth, Reflections on the IRAQ SITUATION INTERIM REPORT, 15 August 2007)

I first addressed myself on GEN Petraeus’s evolving thinking on BSP success in a message of 24 May 2007, (!) addressed to AMB Pickering, in which I stated: “No matter what spin, GEN Petraeus’s statement is going to be Blixian in nature (aka Hans Blix: the fact that I can’t prove its existence does not mean that it wouldn’t exist somewhere) will say: some progress here, less progress there, overall inconclusive, need more time. The troops will be coming home by Christmas. The famous words issued to German soldiers in nearly every war. True each time. Except, four Christmases hence. … I do not envision a U.S. troop pullout on the President’s watch.”

For the public record, I affirmed my assertion in “Between Failure and Success: The Baghdad Security Plan at the 180-Day Marker,” Article, Right Truth Exclusive, 22 August 2007. I stated: “The official line in GEN Petraeus’s report will be that the U.S. army is doing that, which it is expected to do and can do. And, successfully. But, that it is the Iraqi Government, under Prime Minister al-Maliki, which is not living up to its end of the bargain. The argument will be advanced that there is evidence of “measurable” improvements from a military standpoint and that even though those advances have not yet translated into noticeable progress on the political front, the surge should be given more time, into spring 2008.”

Ambiguity in language, on top of overall obfuscation and evasiveness, continue to cloud what exactly the GEN meant to say and whether he meant what he did say. This is certainly the case with respect to post-redeployment forces levels: “Still, other forces of what came to be called “the surge” could remain and new ones could be sent, administration and military officials said Thursday. As a result, the number of troops in Iraq could be higher in the summer of 2008 than it was in the fall of 2006, before the surge began, …”(Steven Lee Myers and Carl Husle, “Bush: Surge Success Allows Limited Troop Cuts, Sees U.S. Forces in Iraq past 2008,” NYT, 13.9.07)

Also, while the GEN was firm on his recommendation to revert to the pre-surge 15 combat brigades, uncertainty abounds as to how many soldiers are in a brigade. “Officials also said it was difficult to give a firm figure for how many soldiers there are in a combat brigade, noting that there can be from 3,500 to 4,500 soldiers, or even more.” (David Cloud, “Number of Soldiers to Be Left in Iraq Remains Unclear,” NYT, 13.9.07) Obfuscation on brigade strength could easily provide the camouflage for 15,000-20,000 troops, who are supposed to have been redeployed.

As I state in the IRAQ SITUATION INTERIM REPORT: (19 July 2007) “It is ironic to note that the Prime Minister’s plan aimed to achieve exactly the opposite of the measures taken by the President, who has chosen to militarize the Prime Minister’s plan. And may, yet, want to militarize it further. At least, through spring 2008. The discreet planning for a “second surge,” camouflaged as troop rotation, must be seen in this regard, further accentuated by the possibility of an “all-out troop augmentation.” If they were able to find the troops, which, I am told, they can’t.”

And, I go on to state: “While the President may, yet again, opt for some tactical adjustment, e.g. a “secondary surge” concomitant to troop rotation, through spring 2008, the hand-writing of failure is now being inked on the wall. In red! And yet, the President, if given the means, may even opt for an “all-out troop augmentation.” One must never under-estimate the cunning of a desperate leader, as the water is rising to the lower neck. I am, however, told that the troops, necessary to make a battlefield difference, are simply non-existent and that even current surge levels cannot be sustained through spring.”

“This week’s testimony of GEN Petraeus and the American Ambassador to Iraq, Ryan C. Crocker, had elated White House officials, who by midweek said they felt they would easily avoid any significant defections by Republican lawmakers and thus face no real legislative constraints on how the Administration conducts the war. (Steven Lee Myers and Carl Husle, “Bush: Surge Success Allows Limited Troop Cuts, Sees U.S. Forces in Iraq past 2008,” NYT, 13.9.07)

Although it is, as yet, too early to make the call, as Congressional maneuverings have but begun, the statement confirms my own assertion in this regard: “With the first primaries in the American Presidential election cycle in February, there will be some real showdowns in September, just as General Petraeus goes before the Congress. I expect the President to win this showdown in the near-term.” (Albrecht Gero Muth, IRAQ SITUATION INTERIM REPORT, 19 July 2007)

In an address to the Nation the President, on 13 September 2007, seconded GEN Petraeus’s determination that the surge has been a success and, with security said to be improving, endorsed phased and limited troop cuts, purported, by summer 2008, to restore pre-surge forces levels. Stated the President: “General Petraeus also recommends that in December we begin transitioning to the next phase of our strategy in Iraq. As terrorist are defeated, civil society takes root and the Iraqis assume more control over their own security, our mission in Iraq will evolve. Over time, our troops will shift from leading operations, to partnering with Iraqi forces, and eventually to over watching these forces.”

By proclaiming a “return on success,” which makes troop cuts possible, and stating that “the more successful we are, the more American troops can return home,” the President underscored the efficacy of approach taken by JAM in support of BSP, in advance of improved security, as conducive to an early withdrawal of foreign forces. It will remain incumbent upon JAM to maintain the level of cooperation with the United States Army towards that end.

Stating that “success will require U.S. political, economic and security engagement that extends beyond my Presidency,” the President further confirmed my earlier assertion in this regard.

GEN Odierno’s positive report this date on decreasing sectarian violence in Baghdad is favorably noted. The United States Army stands assured of JAM’s continued full cooperation in advance of the report, which GEN Odierno will provide to the chain of command in November. The report will be positive.

Continued JAM cooperation with the United States Army, beyond the six-month time frame given in the order of 29 August 2009, will positively impact upon the President’s evolving thinking on how, medium-term, to adjust the strategy to the emerging military and political realities on the ground. Proving that nothing perpetuates the status quo more than talk about change, the decision by the President to advance the necessary pullback from the surge as a voluntary measure has bought momentary relief from Congressional calls for action. The evolving security situation will determine the length of this breather. The security assessment, to be made in November, should prove a determinant.

The General has spoken. The argument could be made that both he and the President made Potemkin blush. But, as I stated, as Sadrists “we can live with this ambitious reading of the situation on the ground, because we did want GEN Petraeus to go before Congress and proclaim success, as JAM is part of the BSP success story and as BSP success will provide the basis for a graceful re-deployment (not withdrawal) by April 2008, with a gradual phase-out through April 2009, with a residual force into 2010/2012. We do not seek an immediate withdrawal of forces, nor even consider it desirable, presupposing assurances that they will be withdrawn, in the fullness of time.” That’s why insisting on language pertaining to a “long-term security arrangement” is disconcerting to Iraqi nationalists, especially now that Chairman Greenspan has affirmed that it was all about oil after all, but we can leave that one to further exploration.

The week confirmed the assertion made in my statement to the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee on 1 February 2007: “Contrary to the President’s postulation, strategy and command are not, at this point, set apart from White House politic al needs. The informed observer further realizes that the United States is confronting issues relating to capacity and intent to wage the war. While not yet a “political war,” the political and military components of the war effort run the risk of ending on parallel tracks. It remains to be seen for how long, beyond the plan’s initial success, the Joint Chiefs and combatant commanders remain insulated form public criticism.”

Already, serious criticism is leveled against the General Officer Corps. Criticism, which I do not necessarily share. “This approach can work for brief periods in many places, but it’s not a good long-term solution,” said Douglas A. Macgregor, a retired Army colonel and a critic of the Bush administration’s handling of Iraq. He called General Petraeus’s testimony “another deceitful attempt on the part of the generals and their political masters to extend our stay in the country long enough until Bush leaves office.” (David Cloud, “Why well-placed Officers Differ on Troop Reductions,” NYT, 14.9.07)

On the other hand, GEN Casey makes a valid point: “GEN Casey, who was GEN Petraeus’s predecessor as the top commander in Iraq, said that while the decision to send additional forces had produced “a temporary effect” and brought “a temporary and local impact on the security situation” the “$64,000 question” was “whether the opportunities created by the military could be taken advantage of by the Iraqi political leadership.” (David Cloud, “Why well-placed Officers Differ on Troop Reductions,” NYT, 14.9.07)

At the same time, I like to stress that the assertion made in my Senate statement that the surge would be longer in duration and greater in numbers, than publicly led on by the President at the time, stands confirmed. As I stated: “No matter what the battle’s outcome, one should expect continued pressure to augment forces beyond the 21,500 currently in the pipeline. For yet another extension of deployments. Either to continue to try to secure Baghdad. Or, if successful, to extend the cordon sanitaire to the provinces. There will also be added pressures to replace key Allied forces, who will withdraw over the summer months.”

Signed) Shaikh Ali Al-Muthaba

(Posted in part at Right Truth)

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

The Baghdad Security Plan at the 180-Day Marker

Between Failure and Success:

The Baghdad Security Plan at the 180-Day Marker

By Albrecht Gero Muth


Sadr City, Baghdad, Al-Iraq. Right Truth Exclusive, 22 August 2007. Now that we are “agreed to call” the Baghdad Security Plan a smashing success, let us reflect on: whose success and successful at what?


In announcing the “surge,” the President defined advance on the political front as “the” objective. On 10 January 2007, he stated: “The most urgent priority for success in Iraq is security, especially in Baghdad. …When this happens, daily life will improve, Iraqis will gain confidence in their leaders, and the government will have the breathing space it needs to make progress in other critical areas.”


Well, the security situation has not improved, significantly. Not across country, with JAM’s dual encirclement strategy putting new pressures on security forces in the North and the South, where, for example, the British hold on Basra is slipping. Nor even in Baghdad, which is not in full control of the United States Army. Sadr City has not been taken in the depth, while JAM is asserting dominion in Western Baghdad. Public life has not been restored. National reconciliation is not in the offing. While U.S. casualties are down for the summer, as they were in previous summers, the number of attacks on U.S. and Iraqi forces peaked at 177.8 per day, a rate higher than in any month since the end of May 2003. At the same time, sectarian killings are on the upswing. The figures being provided on Iraqi deaths are false. A point not lost on the fear of violence on the part of the good citizens of Baghdad.


Stalemate, inertia and a general feeling of malaise, accentuated by a lack of cooperation, political will and competence, permeates all segments of Iraqi political life. The Government, under Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, is being eroded from both, within, e.g. the state of civil war, which exists between Iraq’s Shia majority and Sunni and Kurdish minorities and resultant political maneuverings internal to the governing coalition, as well as externally, e.g. the outside intervention/ proxy wars being waged by Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. The Sunni walkout further eroding the government’s slipping hold on power. As the Hoyatoleslam Moqtadir al-Sadar has stated, we believe time has come for a new Prime Minister and for the National Unity Government to yield to the Government of National Salvation. (The Independent of London, 20 August 2007)


Unable to govern, the Government has met none of the significant benchmarks, the United States Congress set to measure BSP success. Not on Constitutional Reform. Not on Revenue-Sharing. Not on Provincial Elections. Not on Militias. Not on Amnesty. The list goes on. Secondary benchmarks which, for purpose of political camouflage, the President claims to have been met, at some level, are proving irrelevant in meeting intended objectives.


Meanwhile, the military track continues to be shouldered almost exclusively by the United States Army. None of the Iraqi battalions are full strength, only two-thirds are operational and even fewer actually do any soldiering. They lack training, equipment and competent command and control. To say nothing of commitment to the State. More and more Iraqi soldiers are deserting to JAM, bringing along their small arms and light weapons, generously provided for by the American taxpayer. The situation with regard to the Iraqi Police is even worse. The time frame given for training the Iraqi Army and Security Forces was and remains overly ambitious, bordering on the unrealistic.


The surge remains a hotchpotch of tactics, rather than sound strategy based on the reality of the Iraqi body politic. At last, that reality is beginning to sink in: “I just think in some ways we probably all underestimated the depth of the mistrust and how difficult it would be for these guys to come together,” U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates noted in customary understatement. (LA Times, 3 August 2007) A point, I made in my statement to the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee on 1 February 2007: “Since its original success in toppling Saddam, the war has taken on a dynamic of its own, well beyond its original intentions, because from the outset the U.S. pursued a flawed strategy due to erroneous assumptions and a lack of understanding of and appreciation for the operant dynamic of the Iraqi body politic. Regrettably, erroneous assumptions and a lack of understanding of and appreciation for the operant dynamic of the Iraqi body politic continue to under gird the Administration’s conduct of the war.”


“The Pentagon chief’s remarks were his closest yet to acknowledging that the Bush Administration’s top political goals for Iraq may not materialize during the buildup, even if it is extended into next spring, the latest the military could sustain the increase.” (LA Times, DITTO)


“Enemy” vs. “Foe:”


Expanding the Entente Cordiale between JAM and U.S. Army

As part of an “entente cordiale” in play between JAM and the United States Army since BSP inception, JAM will continue, quietly, to help the U.S.A. put on the fig-leaf of success, as everything must be done to deflect away from the U.S. Army. JAM and U.S.A. have bigger enemies to fight. The larger war is beyond the storm clouds gathering as, together, we are getting ready to take on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Proving that “the enemy: need not be “the foe” but can be “an ally in advance of common tactical goals,” even where “agreement on larger strategic objectives “remains, at least for now, elusive.”


Sadrists take strongest exception to specialized units of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, operating on Iraqi territory, in flagrant violation of Iraqi sovereignty and independence. We were first, on 26 June 2007, in advising that specialized units of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran are openly operating in Southern Iraq. We do consider measures taken by specialized units of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran on Iraqi territory acts of terrorism!


JAM continues to cooperate with U.S. and Iraqi military and security forces in eliminating specialized units of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran operating outside the law on the territory of Iraq! It is with that in mind that, yet again, earlier this month we helped facilitate the U.S. strike against Iranian special forces in Sadr City. And it is, with that in mind, that we will help in providing the smoking gun: hard evidence of Iran arming rogue Shia militias against U.S.A.


The official line in GEN Petraeus’ report will be that the U.S. Army is doing that, which it is expected to do and can do. And, successfully. But, that it is the Iraqi Government, under Prime Minister al-Maliki, which is not living up to its end of the bargain. The argument will be advanced that there is evidence of “measurable” improvements from a military standpoint and that even though those advances have not yet translated into noticeable progress on the political front, the surge should be given more time, into spring 2008.


We can live with this ambitious reading of the situation on the ground. For we do want GEN Petraeus to go before Congress and proclaim success.


As I stated in the Food for Thought Paper of 6 March 2007: “It remains my overall objective to help bring about an entente cordiale between JAM and the U.S. Army and/ or the Sadrist movement and U.S. interests in advance of the BSP, the war in Iraq and beyond. … Above all, I remain fully committed to help further the common cause of a timely victory for the United States Army in the Battle for Baghdad, with the objective of advancing a phased redeployment of U.S. forces out of a position of post-victory strength, rather than post-defeat weakness.”


JAM is part of the U.S. Army success story in Baghdad, where little moves without us. Wherever JAM and U.S.A. cooperate, progress is being made. Sadr City is an oasis in a sea of chaos. At this hour, JAM and U.S.A. are co-operating in defeating elements of the Sunni insurgency in Dora, elements critical to arming AQ/M against U.S.A.


JAM and U.S.A. have taken each other’s measure and we fully appreciate each other’s strengths and weaknesses. A liberation army, whose fighting sons are embedded in the hearts and minds of the occupied, becomes unbeatable by the occupier. There is no need to gloat, on either side of the divide.


BSP success will provide the basis for a graceful re-deployment (not withdrawal) by April 2008, with a gradual phase-out through April 2009, with a residual force into 2010/2012. We do not seek an immediate withdrawal, nor even consider it desirable, presupposing assurance that they will be withdrawn, in the fullness of time. As U.S. forces re-deploy, JAM stands ready to lend a helping hand in forces protection. Personally, I can envision a friendly send-off for U.S. forces vacating post-Liberation Iraq, similar to the one, the British received when marching through India Gate at Bombay.


Our usefulness to the U.S.A. was, yet again, much in-evidence in Baghdad during the recent pilgrimage when, together, JAM and U.S.A., were providing security for the Shia faithful. As the LA Times reported: (11 August 2007) “It was unclear whether the U.S. and Iraqi troop presence, or the ubiquitous Al Mahdi militiamen, or both, was responsible for the calm.”


Battlefield Re-Alignment: “Wooing the Insurgents”


The U.S. Army’s success in enlisting JAM and Sunni insurgent groups in common cause will be the singular most significant development for GEN Petraeus to report on. As I have stated, extremists are outflanked at the far-end, not the near-end. Within this context, I note, with delight, that the attitude of the United States Government towards enlisting extremists is changing. “A State Department official says what is needed is a greater willingness to engage hard line forces on both sides of the sectarian divide as well as the Iranians and Syrians.” (TIME Magazine, 30 July 2007) The statement expands further on my exchange with General Odierno at the American Enterprise Institute on 18 January 2006.


The approach now taken mirrors the one, which I first outlined in 2005 and which forms the basis for JAM’s ongoing efforts within the Ninneveh process. As I said in “Wooing the insurgents,” UPI Outside View Commentary, 29 November 2005: “Enlisting nationalist elements of the insurgency into the domestic political process seems like the best hope to improve Iraq’s internal security situation and thence make possible the withdrawal of “all foreign forces” and ---the ultimate goal--- the restoration of full sovereignty.”


As Sadrists, we support the ongoing battlefield re-alignment, on the assumption that it not come at the expense of Shia militias. A point which, at my request, Grand Ayatollah Sistani had his spokesman affirm, just to ensure that Washington get the point. “A representative of Iraq’s top Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, called on the government to broaden the effort beyond Sunnis by rallying all the groups in Diyala to jointly fight the terrorist groups. We call on the government to form a collective command in Diyala province from Sunnis, Shiites and Turkomen and other sects of Iraqis to give these operations a national dimension to fight the al Qaeda organization in the name of Iraq,” Sheikh Abdul-Mahdi al Karbalai said in a sermon in Karbala’s Immam Hussein mosque.” (AP, 28 July 2007)


JAM’s participation in the Taji agreement, which First Cav. helped broker between Sunni and Shiite sheiks, the first ever, is encouraging and bodes well for expanding JAM/ U.S.A. cooperation. Expanding the scope of JAM/ U.S.A. military cooperation should be seen integral to the “political arrangement” with the Hoyatoleslam, now under consideration. Constructive ambiguity as to the who is doing what to whom, integral to the Taji agreement, will guide implementation and set the course for the ongoing battlefield re-alignment.


As yet, the military track of the battlefield re-alignment must be connected to a political track, i.e. an All-Party National Reconciliation Conference, in advance of a national reconciliation process, external to government, at the nexus between the governmental and non-governmental, in furtherance of a national accord, to which insurgents and militia, alike, can subscribe to. It is within this context that the Summit of Militia Leaders, envisioned by the Hoyatoleslam, takes on added importance as a necessary antecedent to the national reconciliation conference. At the summit, militia and insurgent leaders should agree to an interim cessation of hostilities, with the objective of creating the political climate for conciliation, in which advance work on the agenda for the national reconciliation conference can proceed. Militia and insurgency should be enlisted to help enforce the interim ceasefire, with the objective of improving the overall security situation. JAM stands ready to assist in this effort.


Post-Surge Strategy


President Bush has indicated, privately, “a” willingness “to adjust” his war plan to reflect the emerging post-surge military and political realities. Now is not the time to go wobbly on the President’s commitment to enlarge the strategic space for Democracy, but to enlist the Religious in its Advance! He will gain the upper hand, who succeeds in advancing his own objectives in furtherance of the President’s objectives. A zero sum will prove untenable. Towards the goal of further aligning Sadrist objectives with U.S. interests, our recommendations to adjust the strategy are:


I. Reverse surge. Set deadlines for immediate re-deployment (within 180 days, i.e. spring 2008) and near-term withdrawal. (within 540 days, i.e. 9 April 2009) Leaving a residual force into 2010/2012. Replace departing troops with militias and insurgents, amenable to political compromise and re-configuration under government control either, at the level of the central government or the provincial level. Encourage recall of eligible soldiers of the Iraqi Army, in particular Specialized Republican Guard.


II. Demilitarize the post-surge strategy. The expanded U.N. role for Iraq, unanimously approved by the U.N. Security Council, is an important first step on the road to de-militarize the Iraq Question. The constructive role of the new French diplomacy is not fully appreciated.


It is important to ensure that the internal and external legs of the dual-track framework, first advanced by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan in 2004, and endorsed by Prime Minister al-Maliki in an address to the Iraqi people on 5 December 2006, proceed in tandem, just as it remains critical to ensure that the military and political legs of the two-pronged approach taken in the BSP be harmonized. It is further essential that for the U.N. effort, external to the governmental, to be credible it be led at a level senior to the one currently being envisioned. As the Hoyatoleslam has cautioned, the U.N. effort must not be another face for the U.S. occupation. (The Independent, Ditto.)


Somewhere between the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Iraq, regular and irregular, (U.S.A. and AQ/M) and non-interference by outside powers, (Iran and Syria) creative diplomacy will find a historic compromise which, conducive to improving Iraq’s internal security situation, will lend itself to the restoration of Iraqi sovereignty and self-governance.

III. Advance cross-sectarian political and militia/ insurgency cooperation in furtherance of common cause. (AQ/M/ Iran) (the two feeding on each other)


III. 1. On the governmental level. Influence/ support ongoing efforts aimed at Parliamentary re-alignment, with objective of forming a National Salvation Government, capable and willing to govern, to be led by a competent and willing Prime Minister, committed to the advance of National Accord both, programmatically and operationally. Help bring about a governing coalition, which has the benchmarks as an integral part of the coalition agreement. Discreetly influence the coalition agreement in line with overall objectives and goals.


Support the creation of a Department for Militia Affairs within the Ministry for Defense, or creation of a Ministry for Militia Affairs


III. 2. On the non-governmental level. Work on Shia Militias and Sunni Insurgency, with the near-term goal of enlisting their support in restoring public order, and the long-term objective of integrating them into the political process. Distinguish “enemy,” i.e. militias and insurgents, from the “foe,” e.g. AQ/M. Destroy the foe, while co-opting the enemy in furtherance of common tactical goals, i.e. defeating the foe, while keeping resolution to possible differences on strategic objectives, i.e. the vision for the New Iraq, in abeyance. Give the enemy that, which he wants that you can live with, long-term, while obtaining that, which you need, short-term.


These efforts should be fused, in part, by offering a strong DD&R programme, which must be based on interlocking political and economic incentives to be available to former combatants, willing to lay down their arms, to join the political process and to abide by the national accord. This must include a general and blanket amnesty. Some should prove amenable to be incorporated into the Iraqi Army and Security Forces. Others could be re-configured as an Iraqi National Guard, to be organized along provincial lines. Others should be disbanded.


IV. Advance the Dual Track Framework. Support a “New Contract for All Iraqis:” to be based on Hope, Tolerance, Nonviolence, Conciliation and Unity. Acknowledge the operant dynamic/ linkage between improved security, withdrawal of foreign forces, regular and irregular, non-interference by outside powers, restoration of sovereignty and self-governance.


The dual-track framework calls for two co-dependent processes. Internal to Iraq: National Reconciliation Process--- A National Reconciliation (All Party) Conference, to which all stakeholders in the Iraqi body politic are to be invited both, non-governmental and governmental, should be called for. To be preceded by the Summit of Militia and Insurgency Leaders. It is in fusing the two, where short-term, I see the prospect for improving Iraq’s security situation.


An Eminent Persons Group, under the patronage of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, perhaps co-chaired by the Hoyatoleslam, Dr. al-Hakim or Jalal al-Deen al-Saghir from the Shia side and Abdullah Rashid al-Baghdadi, Harith Sulayman al-Dhari or Mahmoud al-Sumaydai from the Sunni side, and with its members to be drawn from the political and religious leadership of all constituent groups of the Iraqi body politic subscribing to the national accord, including Christians, could help steer post-Conference follow-up and follow-on.


External to Iraq: An international conference in support of Iraq’s internal efforts, (!) and for said purpose alone, could be envisioned to address Iraq's juxtaposition within the Middle East, security assurances and economic development. The Compact, adjusted accordingly, may prove a viable venue. The sole purpose of the conference to augment the process, internal to Iraq. And yet, legitimate concerns of Iraq's neighbors could be addressed, perhaps better within the larger international framework, rather than merely within the regional. The Iraq Question must not be internationalized, but internalized. Iraq for the Iraqis.


The conference would advance the operant dynamic/ linkage between withdrawal of all foreign forces, regular and irregular, and non-interference by outside powers, into which U.S. redeployment/ withdrawal can be absorbed. Within this context, the potential role of UN peacekeeping should be looked at further.


A Contact Group, to be comprised of the UN, EU, OIC, Arab League, the P-5, relevant and interested powers, could be envisioned to help steer conference follow-up and follow-on.


An Eminent Persons Group internal to Iraq and a Contact Group external to Iraq could provide a chapeau for the dual-track framework, with the objective of helping advance maximum coordination and harmonization of security in all its aspects. If successful, the operant dynamic, inherent in the dual-track framework, could be considered for the convening of a Conference for Security and Cooperation in the Middle East (CSCME) to explore vistas, venues and modalities to address and redress the gamut of political-military, economic and social issues, confronting the issues. Such a bold initiative would require willingness to proceed on Palestinian Statehood. The President’s initiative on an international peace conference, with the objective of bringing about a Palestinian State, could be seen in this regard.


(((Albrecht Gero Muth, aka Shaikh Ali Al-Muthaba, is Senior Commander of the Jaish-al-Mehdi Political-Military Affairs and Special Operations Command.)))



Also see The Baghdad Security Plan at the 90-Day Marker



Monday, August 20, 2007

Statement of Shaikh Ali Al-Muthaba

On JAM and Iran/ Hezbollah

Statement of Shaikh Ali Al-Muthaba,

(aka Albrecht Gero Muth)

Senior Commander of the

JAM Political-Military Affairs and Special Operations Command

Sadr City, BAGDAD, Al-Iraq

6 Sha’ ban 1428/ 20 August 2007

In the name of Allah, the Omnipotent, may an abundance of Heavenly blessings shine upon the faithful, now as always.

It is stated:

At this time, JAM does not receive support, financial, material, or logistical, from the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Sadrist political relations with the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran are kept in abeyance.

The Hoyatoleslam Moqtadir al-Sadar is on record as stating that an alliance with the Islamic Republic of Iran is not his preferred option in advance of post-Liberation Iraqi foreign relations. He is on record as calling for the timely withdrawal of all foreign forces, regular and irregular, and non-interference by outside powers, in advance of early restoration of Iraqi sovereignty and self-governance.

Sadrists take the strongest possible exception to specialized units of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, operating on Iraqi territory, in flagrant violation of Iraqi sovereignty and independence. We do consider measures taken by specialized units of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran on Iraqi territory acts of terrorism! We have advised the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, accordingly.

JAM continues to cooperate fully with the Bagdad Security Plan, inter alia, in restoring law and order to the streets of Sadr City. Illicit measures, taken by specialized units of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, are undercutting our efforts in said regard. It is, with that in mind, that JAM continues to cooperate with Iraqi military and security forces in eliminating specialized units of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran operating outside the law on the territory of Iraq!

We actively oppose efforts by specialized units of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran in co-opting rogue elements of JAM, operating outside the command and control of the Hoyatoleslam Moqtadir al-Sadar!

There is, at this time, no identifiable need for Iranians to be found on the streets of Sadr City!

The Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran has been advised, accordingly.

JAM was first in advising that specialized units of the Armed Forces are operating openly in Southern Iraq. Iraqi military and security forces were advised, accordingly, on 26 June 2007.

In Southern Iraq, specialized units of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran are aiding BADR, the military wing of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution, in their efforts to thwart JAM’s efforts to restore law and order to the streets of Basra, now that the British stabilization effort has collapsed and the city is being left to the criminal element.

It is ironic for us to note that the Supreme Council receives substantive support from the Government of the United States of America. Ironic the more, as the Supreme Council supports Iran’s objective to partition Iraq, whereas Sadrists remain committed to the preservation of Iraqi national unity, an objective to which the United States Government, alas, prima face, pays lip service. While taking a number of measures to hasten the implosion of Iraq.

Partition of Iraq, in whatever guise, is a non-starter for the Movement and shall constitute a point for departure!

The Hoyatoleslam Moqtadir al-Sadar has given direct orders to take any and all measures necessary to avert the partition of Iraq! In preserving the national unity and territorial integrity of Iraq the Movement is fully supported by Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani.

Our position on ongoing illicit efforts by elements of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran to interfere in the internal affairs of Iraq are set forth in the Iraq Situation Interim Report. (4 Rajab 1428/ 19 July 2007)

Sadrists continue to maintain close cooperative ties to Hezbollah, just as JAM maintains close cooperative ties to Hezbollah’s military wing across the gamut of issues of mutual interest.

JAM has taken the strongest possible exception to revelations that elements of Hezbollah have been operating, outside the law, on the territory of Iraq. We are awaiting word on clarification. The political leadership of Hezbollah has been advised that continued interference by elements of Hezbollah in the internal affairs of Iraq shall be deemed unfriendly and shall prove counter-productive to the shared goal in maintaining friendly relations between the two movements in advance of Shia unity.

Fiat.

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Reflections On Iraq Situation Interim Report

A document released by Shaikh Ali Al-Muthaba, (aka Albrecht Gero Muth) the Senior Commander of the JAM Political-Military Affairs Command of Jaish Al-Mehdi, the Mehdi Army. The document has this date been sent on to the High Command of U.S. Forces in Iraq, the Administration, the U.S. Congress, and the Permanent Members of the U.N. Security Council.

Headquarters

JAM Political-Military Affairs and Special Operations Command
Sadr City, BAGDAD, Al Iraq

The Senior Commander

2 Sha ’ban 1428/ 15 August 2007

Reflections on the IRAQ SITUATION INTERIM REPORT
(4 Rajab 1428/ 19 July 2007)

Reference is made to the IRAQ SITUATION INTERIM REPORT, 4 Rajab 1428/ 19 July 2007. The Command stands by the Report’s descriptive and analytical sections as well as, above all, its proscriptive recommendations, now approved by the Hoyatoleslam for operationalization, integral to the Battle Plan, Revised, and implementation.

The Command makes the following points:

Battlefield Re-Alignment: As stated in the Report, the ongoing battlefield re-alignment is the singular most significant development to report on. Although conceptually and geographically outside the scope of the BSP and an undertaking marred by the potential for serious long-term adverse consequences for Iraq, it should be expected to be reported on to the U.S. Congress by GEN Petraeus as BSP success. Calling the development of recruiting and funding/ arming (!) Sunni insurgent groups the most significant trend in Iraq and one that could lend itself to the advance of national reconciliation, GEN Petraeus has stated: “This is a very, very important component of reconciliation because it’s happening from the bottom up. The bottom-up piece is much farther along than any of us would have anticipated a few months back. It’s become the focus of a great deal of effort, as there is a sense that this can bear a lot of fruit.” (Ann Scott Tyson, “U.S. Widens Push to Use Armed Iraqi Residents, Irregulars to Patrol Own Neighborhoods,” Washington Post, 28 July 2007)

The approach now taken by the Americans mirrors the one, which I first outlined in 2005 and which, since 2006, forms the basis for JAM’s ongoing efforts, within the Ninneveh process, with Sunni insurgent and Shia militia groups in advance of common cause in furtherance of Iraq’s national liberation from foreign occupation. As I said in “Wooing the insurgents,” UPI Outside View Commentary, 29 November 2005: “By all assessments, the U.S. Administration’s estimate of 18-24 months to build up Iraqi security forces, especially the police, to necessary levels of numbers and competency is unrealistic. Against that background enlisting nationalist elements of the insurgency into the domestic political process seems like the best hope to improve Iraq’s internal security situation and thence make possible the withdrawal of “all foreign forces” and ---the ultimate goal--- the restoration of full sovereignty.”

A point, which I affirm in “Towards Reconciliation and Sovereignty: Iraqis Claim Their National Destiny,” Furkono, 21 November 2006. Referring to the first meeting between Shia militia and Sunni insurgent leaders, integral to the Ninneveh process, I stated: “The non-paper of October 25, which was crafted jointly by Sunni and Shia leaders, envisions there to emanate from the national reconciliation conference a dual-track framework aimed at advancing a larger political process in furtherance of the early restoration of Iraqi sovereignty and public order, with the central government assuming command and control of all aspects of good governance. It is beginning to be understood that restoration of sovereignty and public order is linked, just as is national reconciliation and national liberation. Such would of political necessity and following the Qur’an’s religious teachings presuppose the timely, if not immediate, withdrawal of all foreign forces, regular and irregular, as well as a decision to integrate eligible elements of the militias into the Iraqi Army, while providing economic incentive to others to disband.”

As I go on to state: “At the same time, discreet efforts underway to enlist Sunni militias should be further encouraged, including the proposition for the Mujahedeen Shura Council to be invited, should all Iraqi members of the Council renounce violence and declare their preparedness to abide by the national accord. That would require a command decision at the level of Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri, including an instruction to Abu-Ayeeb al-Masri to seize operations and leave the country. Word is outstanding what, if any, premium Dr. Zawahiri is willing to pay for a political role within the Council for a de-militarized AQ/M, re-configurated.”

I continue to hold that the same rationale, which calls for outreach to Shia militia and Sunni insurgent groups, applies to AQ/M. Iraqi nationals, members of AQ/M, willing to lay down their arms and to join the post-national accord political process, must be eligible for a general and blanket amnesty (!) to be accorded all Iraqis engaged in the struggle for national liberation from foreign occupation. I expand on this topic in detail in the Report. The recommendations in said regard have been rejected by the Hoyatoleslam. With the Hoyatoleslam’s approval I have made final direct approach to Dr. Zawahiri, with the objective of obtaining early agreement on cessation of all AQ/M offensive actions internal to Iraq. The day is approaching, which will find JAM in open confrontation with AQ/M.

As Sadrists, we support the ongoing battlefield re-alignment, on the assumption, as I state in the Report, that it not come at the expense of Shia militias. A point which, at my request, Grand Ayatollah Sistani had his spokesman affirm, just to ensure that Washington get the point. “A representative of Iraq’s top Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, called on the government to broaden the effort beyond Sunnis by rallying all the groups in Diyala to jointly fight the terrorist groups. We call on the government to form a collective command in Diyala province from Sunnis, Shiites and Turkomen and other sects of Iraqis to give these operations a national dimension to fight the al Qaeda organization in the name of Iraq,” Sheikh Abdul-Mahdi al Karbalai said in a sermon in Karbala’s Immam Hussein mosque.” (AP, 28 July 2007) The suggestion mirrors my recommendation, in integrating militia and insurgent fighters, to follow the American National Guard model.

JAM’s participation in the Taji agreement, which First Cav. helped broker between Sunni and Shiite sheiks, the first ever, is encouraging and bodes well for expanding JAM/ U.S.A. cooperation, in play since BSP inception. Expanding the scope of JAM/ U.S.A. military cooperation should be seen integral to the “political arrangement” with the Hoyatoleslam, now under consideration. Publicly advanced, in part, as a means to help reign in JAM influence in and around Baghdad, we are a full partner in the effort! Without JAM, little moves in Bagdad. Constructive ambiguity as to the who is doing what to whom, integral to the Taji agreement, will guide implementation and set the course for the ongoing battlefield re-alignment.

The battlefield re-alignment is being advanced by the Americans without the P.M.’s approval and could be seen as further eroding the central government. We share the P.M.’s concern that the effort could result in encouraging Sunnis to take-up arms against the central government. Unlike others, we remain committed to Iraq’s national unity, in word and deed! While realizing that it will take an all out coordinated effort to keep the country together. It is on that basis, as we share the U.S. view, that the P.M. is too beholden to narrow sectarian interests, that we support the effort. The effort, successfully advanced by First Cav at Taji, should be expanded upon. The U.S. Cavalry has a fine tradition for successful tactical alliances with the tribes, if alone one were to reflect on the Indian treaties, all of which were broken, none by the Indians. We delight in noting that the coordinating committee is being headed by a British Major-General. We consider there to be benefit in dealing with the British.

The battlefield re-alignment, seen as conducive to advance of national reconciliation, takes account of three important assertions I continue to make:

· Extremists are outflanked on the far-end, not the near-end. The approach taken to enlist moderates to split extremists is erroneous. On the continuum of extremism you go out as far as you can, co-opt the one extremist at the far-end, amenable to your overtures, and work your way backward. Rather than, with the help of some moderate forward. The same rationale applies, which required Nixon to open-up to China, or Reagan to USSR. Couldn’t have been done by a moderate, could it?

· Reconciliation comes at the far end of conflagration. At the point, when the parties to the conflict are either dead, or realize the futility of armed struggle in advance of political objectives. This, however, comes only at the far-end of exhaustion, or utter brutality. Or, granted, when the civilian population is turned. Neither of which is the case. Nor, do I expect it to be the case in the short time frame given. Yet, again, the surge, not unlike modern warfare in general, takes too timid an approach. With all due respect to General Petraeus, I think he errs on the soft approach to counter-insurgency. It’s carrots and sticks. Not just carrots.

· Reconciliation takes place external to government, at the nexus of the non-governmental and governmental levels of action. The approach taken, whereby one thinks that some meaningless piece of legislation, even where it to be passed by Parliament, will help realign extremists is erroneous. What is needed is a process, external to government, in which extremists get to advance their political objectives, upon renunciation of violence, with the objective of their integration into the body politic. That is, certainly, the lesson of the African experience.

Within this context, I note, with delight, that the attitude of the United States Government towards enlisting extremists is changing. As TIME Magazine reports in its edition of 30 July 2007: “A State Department official says what is needed is a greater willingness to engage hard line forces on both sides of the sectarian divide as well as the Iranians and Syrians.” The statement expands further on my exchange with General Odierno at the American Enterprise Institute on 18 January 2006.

As yet, the military track of the battlefield re-alignment must be connected to a political track, i.e. an All- Party National Reconciliation Conference, in advance of a national reconciliation process, external to government, at the nexus between the governmental and non-governmental, in furtherance of a national accord, to which insurgents and militia, alike, can subscribe to. For too long, militias and insurgents have been talked about, rather than talked to. It is encouraging that this is changing. It is within this context that the Summit of Militia Leaders, envisioned by the Hoyatoleslam, takes on added importance as a necessary antecedent to the national reconciliation conference. At the summit, militia and insurgent leaders should agree to an interim cessation of hostilities, with the objective of creating the political climate for conciliation, in which advance work on the agenda for the national reconciliation conference can proceed. Militia and insurgency should be enlisted to help enforce the interim ceasefire, with the objective of improving the overall security situation. JAM stands ready to assist in this effort.

Assessing BSP Success/ Failure: Assessment of success versus failure of the BSP will depend, in no small measure, on one’s valuation of advance of objectives versus goals as a function of cost/ benefit attached to implementing modalities. If success is defined as advancing a goal other than the one originally suggested, in an area other than the one originally targeted, while altogether failing to advance the larger objective in-reference, then the surge could be called a smashing success, defined by General Pace as “not winning, not loosing,” a holding pattern, otherwise known as failure to break through. To those of us in the front lines, the surge and with it the Battle for Bagdad and, by extension, the War in Iraq, is failing, if not, perhaps for losing, then, certainly for failing to win. It remains to be seen for how long, beyond the plan’s perceived limited early success, the Joint Chiefs and Combatant Commanders remain insulated from public criticism. Contrary to the President’s assertion, strategy and command are not, at this point, set apart from White House political needs. Within this context, the speed with which GEN Pace, now that his career has come to an abrupt end, has come under public and Congressional criticism should be noted by his peers.

The surge remains a hotchpotch of tactics, rather than sound strategy based on the reality of the Iraqi body politic. As a result, as I cautioned the U.S. Senate, the military track runs independent of the political track, with limited improvements in security being eroded by the constant of the al-Maliki government’s inability to forge political solutions. At this point in time, the United States, on its own, is no longer in a position to achieve her war aims. The surge is missing its target. On the military track and on the political track. The military objective of the BSP has not been achieved! Bagdad is not fully in the hands of the U.S. Army. To date, Sadr City has not been taken in the deep. And control in the Western sector is slipping. There is some serious re-apportionment of housing going on in the Sunni districts. The U.S. Army is prudent not to challenge JAM, openly, just as we opt not to challenge the U.S. Army, openly. To say nothing of the lack of any progress on the political front, with none of the key benchmarks having been met, pending the collapse of the al-Maliki government, further to the ongoing Parliamentary re-alignment. There will be no substantive movement on the political front under al-Maliki, as the central government is not-functioning, with half of Ministerial posts now vacated, following Tawafiq’s walkout on 1 August 2007. As the Food for Though Paper of 6 March 2007 states: “The al-Maliki government ever more perceived as doing the U.S. bidding, while security plan falters, will mark the end to the U.S. war effort in Iraq, as much as it will be the end to the al-Maliki government.” Having convened a Summit of Political Leaders in a last-ditch effort to pre-empt the outright collapse of his government, the P.M. is with his back against the wall. As I state in the Report, “Whether or not the P.M. will be able to survive, politically, will depend on an internal assessment by members of the governing coalition as to his continued utility.” As Sadrists, we believe time has come for a new P.M. to assume the helm. The National Unity Government must yield to the Government of National Salvation.

Lest we forget, it was advance on the political front that defined the objective of the surge. Does anyone care to remember the President’s January 10 address to the Nation? The President stated: “The most urgent priority for success in Iraq is security, especially in Baghdad. …When this happens, daily life will improve, Iraqis will gain confidence in their leaders, and the government will have the breathing space it needs to make progress in other critical areas.”

The security situation has not improved, significantly. Public life ahs not been restored. National reconciliation is not in the offing. The small advances made will prove unsustainable over time. While U.S. casualties are down for the summer, as they were in previous summers, the number of attacks on U.S. and Iraqi forces peaked at 177.8 per day, a rate higher than in any month since the end of May 2003. In part because of discriminate targeting. At the same time, sectarian killings are on the upswing. The figures being provided to the public on Iraqi deaths are false. A point not lost on the fear of violence on the part of the good citizens of Baghdad.

And, yet. As promised, JAM will continue to help the U.S. Army put on the fig-leaf of a modicum of success, as everything must be done to deflect away from the U.S. Army. JAM and U.S.A. have bigger enemies to fight. The larger war is beyond the storm clouds gathering as, together, we are getting ready to take on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The official line in GEN Petraeus’ report will be that the U.S. Army is doing that, which it is expected to do and can do. And, successfully. But, that it is the Iraqis who are not living up to their end of the bargain. The argument will be advanced that there is evidence of recent improvements from a military standpoint and that even though those advances have not yet translated into noticeable progress on the political front, the surge should be given more time, into spring 2008.

We can live with that line, because each day the occupation lasts the Movement grows, now to the point where Iraqi soldiers are defecting to JAM, many bring along their small arms and light weapons, kindly provided for by Uncle Sam. Because, in part, we pay on time. And, because we are the future of Iraq. A liberation movement becomes unbeatable, when embedded in the hearts and minds of the occupied populace. In providing basic public services to the citizens of Iraq, services, which a paralyzed government is not able to provide, Sadrists are endearing themselves to Iraqis of all walks of life. In Bagdad’s sweltering summer heat, it’s the Movement, which provides the generators, which provide the energy, which fuel the ventilators, which cool the air. That’s beginning to play to our greatest advantage and will make us prevail, as support for the al-Maliki government erodes further.

We want GEN Petraeus to go before Congress and proclaim success. As I stated in the Food for Thought Paper: “It remains my overall objective to help bring about an entente cordiale between JAM and the U.S. Army and/ or the Sadrist movement and U.S. interests in advance of the BSP, the war in Iraq and beyond. … Above all, I remain fully committed to help further the common cause of a timely victory for the United States Army in the Battle for Baghdad, with the objective of advancing a phased redeployment of U.S. forces out of a position of post-victory strength, rather than post-defeat weakness, I am reassured in knowing myself working off the same schedule as the brain trust around GEN Petraeus: 180 days and counting.”

JAM is part of the U.S. Army success story in Bagdad. We have taken each other’s measure and fully appreciate each other’s strengths and weaknesses. BSP success will provide the basis for a graceful re-deployment (not withdrawal) by April 2008, with a gradual phase-out through April 2009, with a residual force into 2010/2012. Lest anyone really need proof that JAM can unravel this, at will. Look to Basra. Look to Western Baghdad. Look to Irbil and Kirkuk. The signal inherent in the mortars targeted on 3rd ID HQ did not go unappreciated, one would hope. Their position was phoned in and there never was a threat to U.S. military personnel. JAM does NOT deliberately target U.S. military personnel. Certainly not in Bagdad. And even beyond, where it is avoidable, unless fired upon, first! While we cannot on our own win, we can deny victory to others.

“I just think in some ways we probably all underestimated the depth of the mistrust and how difficult it would be for these guys to come together,” U.S. Defense Secretary Gates said. (LA Times, 3 August 2007) A point, I made in my statement to the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee on 1 February 2007: “Since its original success in toppling Saddam, the war has taken on a dynamic of its own, well beyond its original intentions, because from the outset the U.S. pursued a flawed strategy due to erroneous assumptions and a lack of understanding of and appreciation for the operant dynamic of the Iraqi body politic. Regrettably, erroneous assumptions and a lack of understanding of and appreciation for the operant dynamic of the Iraqi body politic continue to under gird the Administration’s conduct of the war.”

As the LA Times states: (3 August 2007) “The Pentagon chief’s remarks Thursday were his closest yet to acknowledging that the Bush Administration’s top political goals for Iraq may not materialize during the buildup, even if it is extended into next spring, the latest the military could sustain the increase.”

JAM/ Sadrists continue to support the BSP: “The Hoyatoleslam supports the BSP, (military track) with the goal of restoring law and order to the streets of Iraq’s Capital city, in furtherance of the timely withdrawal/ redeployment of all foreign forces form Iraq, regular and irregular, parallel to a process for national reconciliation, (political track) which takes account of Shia unity in advance of Shia empowerment, political and economic, and which acknowledges the constructive role the religious plays in the public sphere of the New and democratic Iraq.”

This commitment forms the basis for JAM’s cooperation with the U.S.A. on BSP. It sets forth reciprocal obligations in furtherance of common objectives and goals. The meetings of senior JAM and U.S.A. Combatant Commanders are proceeding well and should be expanded on further in advance of common cause. At the same time, the political track in advance of a political arrangement with the Hoyateleslam should be advanced. I am concerned to permit the military to outflank the political. At a minimum, I need a White House finger print on any understanding to be reached between JAM and U.SA. in time for the forces re-deployment, GEN Petraeus is now considering.

We do not seek an immediate withdrawal of U.S. forces, even consider it counter-productive, but do insist on assurances that they will be withdrawn, eventually. The day is approaching that an ever-deteriorating security situation will force us into the open, alongside U.S.A., if possible, alone, if necessary. I assume it is fully appreciated that U.S.A. is no longer in a position to defeat JAM. For in advance of national liberation, we will avoid the mistakes of AQ/M, made in indiscriminate targeting. A liberation army, supported by the hearts and minds of the occupied, becomes in surmountable to the occupier! Whereas others may be able to run, but not hide, we just hide, without the need to run. As we are the country’s sons and brothers.

Our usefulness to the U.S.A. was, yet again, much in-evidence in Bagdad this past weekend where, together, JAM and U.S.A. were providing security for the Shia faithful. Earlier that week, we aided U.S.A. in their raid on Iranian-armed rogue JAM elements inside Sadr City. Little moves inside Baghdad against the wishes of the Army of the Mehdi. As the LA Times reported: (11 August 2007) “It was unclear whether the U.S. and Iraqi troop presence, or the ubiquitous Al Mahdi militiamen, or both, was responsible for the calm.”

As the Report states: “Offensive actions in the North and the South will be maintained at full force. JAM SpecOps will continue to be executed against Badr and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, operating on Iraqi territory.” I guess Khalil Hamza did not have sufficient time to appreciate the words, fully. It’s a pity that MG Hassan was converted, as well. He was specifically warned against getting into the SUV. The new sensors, which can’t be jammed. Not even by the attacker. “Bad idea, Sir, to get into the vehicle,” he was told, while given the sign, he should have known. I wonder, which part of the message he did not comprehend. The family will receive a full stipend.

I am stunned about the big deal everyone is making about Khalil. He was a senior Badr commander, who had JAM blood on his hands. He had been warned. And, yet, he lent a hand in the conversion of two senior JAM commanders. Bad move. On his part, I say. It is amusing to note that the P.M.’s office issued the statement even before the attack had been executed. I think that the dynamic at play between the P.M.’s office and JAM is not fully appreciated.

Timeline, Countdown to “Victory in Iraq Day:” The timeline, i.e. the two-year plan aimed at “sustainable security,” contained in the Report, immediate re-deployment (within 180 days, i.e. spring 2008) and near-term withdrawal, (within 540 days, i.e. 9 April 2009) stands confirmed in U.S. Secretary of Defense Gates’ Letter addressed to U.S. Senator Clinton, which sets forth the proposition for the surge to continue into spring 2008, a point amplified by the incoming Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in his testimony before the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee. (Washington Post, 1 August 2007) “In any case, ADM Mullen acknowledged in his testimony, the troop surge cannot continue past April 2008 under the military’s current force structure.” As I state in the Report: “I am, told that the troops, necessary to make a battlefield difference, are simply non-existent and that even current surge levels cannot be sustained through spring.” ADM Mullen confirmed my assertion, the U.S. Army is operating under a de factor timetable for ending the surge by next April.

JAM and the U.S. Army are on the same song sheet. The song sheet being provided to us by the Americans and we are willing to oblige. As said, and we must be discreet (!) on this point, we do not seek an immediate withdrawal, just certainty of an eventual withdrawal. As U.S. forces re-deploy, upon the reversal of the surge, JAM stands ready to lend a helping hand in forces protection. Personally, I can envision a friendly send-off for U.S. forces vacating Iraq, similar to the one, the British received when marching through India Gate at Bombay.

Basra: An integral part of JAM’s dual encirclement strategy in the North (Kirkuk and Irbil) and the South, (Basra) forcing the Americans to draw down forces in Bagdad, even before security is restored to the capital’s streets, Basra is about to fall to us! Forced to relinquish Basra Palace and to retreat to the protection of the Airport, which is under near constant JAM shelling, we have all but pushed the British Army against the wall. The British campaign to secure Basra, launched last fall, following a strategy similar to the one pursued by GEN Petraeus has failed. As is GEN Petraeus failing. I like to believe that Sun is winning over Clausewitz.

The British have lost, strategically and irreversibly. They are now little more than sitting ducks, awaiting word from Whitehall as to when they may finally return home. The P.M. must give it some time to placate Washington for the sake of the special relationship. But, they will be out in time for the forthcoming general election.

Looking at those poor chaps, one almost has a sense of a deja-vu: Dunkirk! I would like to point out that our shelling is very deliberate and concentrated solely on infrastructure. The assertion is borne out by the ratio of incoming fire versus casualties! We are not at war with the British and see no need to slaughter them. One of our finest caught a British soldier off guard, aiming point-blank, he standing no chance. My man disarmed the Britisher, took his dog tag, only to send him on his way. We sent the dog tag to Regimental Headquarters, to be united with the soldier. Point made. I was assured, point taken.

When the history of the current conflict is written, one day, no matter what may, as yet, lie ahead for us on the battlefield, I do hope that the Army of the Mehdi will be remembered for having abided by the age-old code of soldiering. We do not question the Geneva Conventions. The men of the Army of the Mehdi are not savages, but the future of Iraq.

The ruse, involving allegations the British released badgers into the streets of Basra, underscores the skill of JAM special operations. Pure propaganda. From our end. To incite public opinion against the British. Successfully, I may add! The same way that the switching of the oil, which lubed rifle ammunition during the Indian campaign, helped ignite the Indian mutiny. I have, repeatedly referenced the Indian mutiny as the historic point of reference for me in planning the taking of Basra. I affirm this assertion.

Basra holds the key to Iraq. Also, Basra will be critical to the withdrawal of U.S. forces! JAM’s control of Basra will further advance the need to reach a political arrangement with the Hoyatoelslam. As our strategy follows Sun’s call for diversion, it’s amusing to note that the Americans are focused on Baghdad, where even they now realize the music is not playing. Beyond Baghdad, we forced them to concentrate on the North. All the while, rolling them up from the rear. Iraq’s future will be decided in the provinces, not the capital city. A major error of judgment on the part of GEN Petraeus, as I pointed out in my statement to the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

At Basra will also be decided the supremacy of Shia militias: JAM over BADR. I regret to advise that BADR is putting up a stiff fight. It is not assured that we will win. I have a small window. The preponderance of our operational units are now engaged in theatre. We have lost some of our best commanders and men. Badr has the benefit of Iranian support. We do not. At this point, we do receive no support from Iran. Our relations with Iran, military and political, are kept in abeyance. On the other hand, there are Iranian special forces aiding and abetting Badr in terrorist acts perpetrated against the people of Iraq. I do hope to outmaneuver them on the battlefield to the point, where careful political maneuverings within the Supreme Council, i.e. further conversion of senior Supreme Council members to help Pupu take the helm, may just give me the edge. An up-hill struggle.

We have reason to believe that Cornet Wales will be quietly rotated to Iraq, to take command of his unit. As well he should, as, so I am given to understand, the Duke of Edinburgh has asserted himself. The Army of the Mehdi stands by its earlier assertion that there is no threat emanating to the Cornet from our side. As in-evidence by the fact that, to date, there has been no singular incident involving us and the Blues and Royals. To the contrary, on one occasion, we gravitated away from the Regiment. In most cases, in which we opt to engage the British, we are fired upon, first. Even though catching one of the battle ensigns remains high on my list. We do not find ourselves in an understanding with the British Army similar to the one we have with the U.S. Army, yet, we abide by similar rules of engagement.

Iran: Iran poses a serious threat. A threat to Shia Iraq. A threat to the ME. It is said commonality of interests that, in advancing the U.S. political arrangement with the Hoyatoleslam, envisioned by the U.S. Vice President, I hope to build on. It is with that in mind that thought is being given to the proposition that, if Iran must be taken on, it’s preferable to do so sooner rather than later. In that, we agree quietly with the Vice President’s recommendation for an early aerial bombardment. As Admiral Dewey ordered Captain Gridley at Manila Bay, “You may fire, when you are ready, Gridley.”

At this point, U.S. special forces are operating within Iran, as are JAM special operations units, both in advance of actionable intel and targeting coordinates. We would also hope to lend a helping hand in providing the smoking gun, which would justify military action against Iran. It is with that in mind that, yet again, earlier this week we helped facilitate the U.S. strike against Iranian special forces in Sadr City. As I have indicated, the Iranians must be thwarted in their efforts to subordinate rogue JAM elements to their wishes, which is undercutting the reputation of JAM. Thought is being given to the proposition to help forge an Iranian connection to AQ/M, which would really provide us the pretext we want.

I continue to view Shia Iraq as an ally against Shia Iran.

Expanded U.N. role: The expanded U.N. role for Iraq is significant and must be seen integral to the need to de-militarize the Iraq Question. The constructive role of the new French diplomacy in helping push the Anglo-American initiative through the UN Security Council is not fully appreciated. As we are about to return to the dual-track framework, first advanced by Secretary-General Annan in 2004, I expand on it in my UPI article of 29 November 2005 and have been pushing for it ever since, it does form the basis of my recommendations in this regard, contained in the Report, one would hope that the great Ghanaian would get some credit for having been on the right track.

The dual-track framework, endorsed by the P.M. in an address to the Iraqi people on 5 December 2006, but never fully advanced, calls for a national reconciliation process internal to Iraq, and an international component external to Iraq, in support of the effort internal to Iraq. The outline contained in the Iraq Situation Interim Report warrants no repetition here, beyond emphasizing that the process must be advanced external to government and must be all-inclusive and non-discriminatory! And that entails full inclusion of extremists, amenable to lay down their arms and to join the political process.

It is important to ensure that the internal and external legs of the dual-track framework proceed in tandem, just as it remains critical to ensure that the military and political legs of the two-pronged approach taken in the BSP be harmonized. It is further essential that for the U.N. effort, external to the governmental, to be credible it be led at a level senior to the one currently being envisioned.

Somewhere between the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Iraq, regular and irregular, (U.S.A. and AQ/M) and non-interference by outside powers, (Iran and Syria) creative diplomacy will find a historic compromise which, conducive to improving Iraq’s internal security situation, will lend itself to the restoration of Iraqi sovereignty and self-governance.

National Movement: Great progress is being made in building the National Movement for the Liberation of Iraq from Foreign Occupation, with the Sadrist Movement in its center, and the Maximum Leader at its helm. Most notably, whereas in the past, thought was being given to the proposition of blending eligible elements of JAM into the Iraqi Army, the number of defections of the Iraqi Army to JAM is now to the point, where JAM may well become the new Army of the New Iraq. That would get us out from under the need to disband it. The day is approaching when a “political arrangement” with the Hoyatoleslam will have to be struck. As Sadrists we are building institutions paralleling those of the government, with the objective of blending them into the government upon “Machtergreifung.” I don’t think it has, yet, sunk in that the Iraqi Revolution is in the offing. I advance our thoughts on this in the Report.

(Signed) Shaikh Ali Al-Muthaba, a/k/a Albrect Gero Muth

Posted at Right Truth

Thursday, July 19, 2007

2 IRAQ SITUATION INTERIM REPORT

IRAQ SITUATION INTERIM REPORT

Headquarters
JAM Political-Military Affairs and Special Operations Command
Sadr City, BAGDAD, Al Iraq
The Senior Commander
4 Rajab 1428/ 19 July 2007

IRAQ SITUATION INTERIM REPORT:

In the name of Allah, the Omnipotent, May an abundance of Heavenly Blessings shine upon You, Now as Always. This I say unto Thee, My Brother, in the Name of Muhammad, the Prophet, and Jesus of Nazareth, the Son of God. Long Live the Struggle. God be With Us.

The New Way Forward, Revisited
This report is the first in a series of two internal JAM-PMA reports, submitted to the Hoyatoleslam Moqtadir al-Sadar, integral to ongoing internal JAM/ Sadrist deliberations on the JAM/ Sadrist Battle Plan: Grand Strategy, Military and Political, set forth in the Food for Thought Paper of 6 March 2007. It includes an assessment of progress being made in advance of Sadrist military and political objectives, in furtherance of the early restoration of Iraqi sovereignty and self-governance. And provides variable options for an adjustment to the Battle Plan, due by 1 September 2007.

Introduction

Overview

Stalemate, inertia and a general feeling of malaise, accentuated by a lack of cooperation, political will and competence, permeates all segments of Iraqi political life, with the people watching military and political developments unfold and for who comes out on top. Without a captain at the helm and rudderless, Iraq is a ship adrift in the Arabian Sea, about to founder. A deteriorating internal security situation, on top of eroding public confidence in the political leadership of the Iraqi government, concomitant to a perceived lessening of the international community's long-term political commitment are feeding on each other. These trends would have to be reversed to transform the political-social environment for the Battle for Baghdad to succeed. At this stage, it is unlikely that either the Government of Iraq, nor the United States Government will, on their own, have the capacity, intent and time to do so. As I stated on 6 March 2007:[1] “The al-Maliki government ever more perceived as doing the U.S. bidding, while security plan falters, will mark the end to the U.S. war effort in Iraq, as much as it will be the end to the al-Maliki government.”
In “Wooing the Insurgents,” UPI Outside View Commentary, United Press International, 29 November 2005, (!) I stated: “By all assessments, the U.S. Administration’s estimate of 18-24 months to build up Iraqi security forces, especially the police, to necessary levels of numbers and competency is unrealistic. Against that background enlisting nationalist elements of the insurgency into the domestic political process seems like the best hope to improve Iraq’s internal security situation and thence make possible the withdrawal of “all foreign forces and --- the ultimate goal--- the restoration of full sovereignty.”

Again, the Bush Administration is asking for an extension of the time to be given to build up Iraq’s Armed Forces and Security Forces. The time frame given in 2007 is as unrealistic as the one given in 2005. Given said lack of realism I delight in noting that the recommendation to enlist nationalist elements of the insurgency is being implemented. Let us augment the outreach to the Sunni insurgency with an outreach to Shia militias and move the New Way Forward, Revisited, forward, together. The dynamic inherent in a two-front approach to AQ/M and Iran should be seen as a means towards that end.

Popular support for the BSP is waning in both Iraq and the U.S. As the schedule pushes towards the 08 NDAA and Defense Appropriations Bills in the United States Congress, there is going to be more conditions language inserted, which will restrict the President’s room for maneuver. With the first primaries in the American Presidential election cycle in February, there will be some real showdowns in September, just as General Petraeus goes before the Congress. I expect the President to win this show-down, in the near-term. We should turn this showdown to our advantage. At the same time, BSP failure will continue to put added pressures on P.M. al-Maliki to step aside. Whether or not the P.M. will be able to survive, politically, will depend on an internal assessment by members of the governing coalition as to his continued utility. As our efforts within the Council of Representatives continue to gain momentum, these pressures should be increased, with the one permitted to feed off the other.

Overall, the Iraq Situation Interim Report provides for a negative picture in both, military and political terms. The functioning of the executive and legislative branches of the Iraqi central government is seriously impaired, with its authority not extending far beyond the Green Zone. None of the benchmarks, deemed critical to national accord, have been met, nor should they be expected to be met in the given time frame but, perhaps, for the Oil Law. Yet, even should a seriously-flawed Draft Oil Law be forced to pass to meet larger political objectives in the near-term, long-term implementation, already difficult to fathom, should be deemed even less realistic.

Iraq is in a state of war both, internal, e.g. civil, and external, e.g. intervention by outside powers. The security situation is deteriorating in Baghdad, where the Baghdad Security Plan fails to gain traction, and across country, where JAM’s dual encirclement strategy in the North and the South is forcing the U.S. Army to divert resources from the Capital, even before law and order has been restored. With Iran openly engaged in the South, Saudi Arabia clandestinely assisting Sunni insurgent groups, Syria aiding various illicit small arms and light weapons pipelines and Turkey engaged in cross-border shelling of PKK rebel hideouts in the Kurdistan Autonomous Region, major foreign powers are engaged in proxy warfare. If not yet the dying man of the ME, Iraq is bleeding.

The Iraq, you love, has ceased to exist. It will take an all-out, coordinated effort on all fronts, at all levels, for Iraqi patriots, across sectarian, ethnic and other divides, to hold Iraq together, under internal and external strains. As we have discussed, whatever course of action you opt to pursue in advance of the Struggle, the Revolution in advance of Shia Power, our direct action must be deemed Constitutional. The major historic lesson, I aim to impart, is for the Revolution from within.

Civic life remains at a standstill, governmental services are not presently available to the people of Iraq. The faithful are under near daily assault from the dark forces of evil. The Government’s inability to provide adequate security for the holy pilgrimage to Samara has, yet again, demonstrated to all Iraqis that they cannot depend on their Government to provide security. No security, no political process. No political process, no security. These are key points to make. The day is approaching for JAM to assert its historic mission in defense of Iraq from enemies, domestic and foreign. We stand ready and shall await your orders.

The economy remains depressed; most public sector systems have collapsed. Short-term, that plays to advantage in our community outreach programmes. Long-term, separation from the Government, which restricts access for our people to key assets of the central government, will play to disadvantage and will hasten the need to re-think rejoining versus collapsing the government. Rejoining the Parliamentary bloc could provide us necessary breathing space. We could (co)-operate close to, but independent of Government, while further eroding it from within.

Internal displacement and refugee waves, comprising hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, are setting the stage for a major humanitarian crisis, yet to unfold, as the country’s human resources are being depleted. Ethnic cleansing, proceeding nearly unabated, short-term, should be expected to increase, integral to planning on the part of all parties to Iraq’s civil war for the “Day After.” (Target Date: 9 April 2009, “Iraq Liberation Day”) It is forcing a re-alignment of the country along ethnic lines which, together, with the regions asserting themselves over a weakening central government could, at the slightest provocation, lead to an implosion and partition of Iraq. Already, it will prove difficult to keep the Kurds integrated into post-Liberation Iraq. And, perhaps, even counter-productive to crafting a Shia-Arab Iraqi national identity. Within this context, thought should be given to the proposition to regain for Iraq in the East, what we may loose in the North. That would enable us to enlist the Kurds in Northern Iran in common cause to deconstruct the Iranian hegemon.

With Iraq’s civilian leadership crumbling, the Army unable to fill the void, time is approaching for a reluctant religious leadership to fill the void at the center of Iraqi governance. It remains to be seen whether the established religious leadership is up to the task at-hand. With Dr. Hakim seriously incapacitated, the burden of responsibility may well fall upon you. In the months, ahead, we must further manifest that you are the man in whose hands the future of Iraq may rest, as your position alone is propelled by broad-based cross-sectarian grass-roots support. This appeal must be further expanded upon. A fine line will have to be struck between keeping the other side guessing as to your intentions versus the need to enlist broad-based political support, internal and external to Iraq, in advance of a viable governing coalition at the core of a new National Salvation Government.

Section One: Holding On—the Political-Military Situation

I. The Military Situation

Baghdad Security Plan Progress Report

The BSP Progress Report is set forth in BSP, Progress Report, Memorandum of 4 June 2007, and the BSP at the 90-Day Marker, Memorandum of 9 May 2007. The assessments set forth in the two memoranda remain valid, as the situation has not improved, significantly. Nor, should it be expected to change, significantly, in the near-term. If not yet outright failed, the BSP is certainly failing to gain traction in advance of its stated objectives, as set forth by the American President on 10 January 2007: to take the necessary military measures in order to improve the security situation to the point of enabling the P.M. to advance the necessary political measures in order to further the process for national reconciliation.

The security situation has not improved, significantly. The small advances made may prove unsustainable over time. Public life has not been restored, as your recent tour of the South made clear. While sectarian killings were down for June, a drop, which was to be expected, but a point lost on the fear of violence on the part of the good citizens of Baghdad. Yet a positive development of potential significance, if it were to denote a sustainable and expanding trend. It is, for now, off set by the considerable increase in U.S. casualties. We should always express concern for U.S. casualties in Baghdad. You should make clear that you do not consider yourself at war with the American people, but at odds with the failed expansionist policies of a failed President. We must get rid of the anti-American stigma, which attaches to your name. Especially as I like to think that it does not reflect your attitude.

For the surge to work in shocking Iraqis into action it had to be swift, forceful and decisive. Yet, to date, less than two-thirds of Baghdad is covered by the BSP, the surge having taken too long to be deployed and operationalized. But for Sadr City, an oasis in a sea of chaos, which Jesus of Nazareth spoke of as a “shining city upon a hill,” Baghdad is a thunder. With U.S. forces levels, already, being thinned down to respond to a deteriorating security situation in the North, where JAM is helping the Turkish Army set the stage for a cross-border incursion into the Kurdish Autonomous Region, and the South, where an ongoing showdown between JAM and BADR is further eroding the U.K.’s tenuous hold on Basra. U.S. supply lines are over-extended and, as in evidence, the Army is running into added combat logistical issues. They will not be able to sustain the effort beyond the one year anniversary.

On the other hand, external to the geographic reach of the BSP, the security situation in Al-Anbar is improving in part, because of the U.S. Army enlisting the support of Sunni insurgents in common cause against Al-Qaeda Mesopotamia. An important development, undervalued in its potential signal impact, if it can be sustained and replicated. You are wise in encouraging this effort, further.
The military track continues to be shouldered almost exclusively by U.S.A. and is beginning to run into the sand of the Arabian Desert. None of the Iraqi battalions are full strength, only two-thirds are operational and even fewer actually do any soldiering. They lack training, equipment and competent command and control. To say nothing of commitment to the State. Which has come to me as a surprise. As you know, I have adjusted my earlier view on this one. The situation with regard to the Iraqi Police is even worse. The time frame given for training the Iraqi Army and Security Forces was and remains overly ambitious, bordering on the unrealistic. To say otherwise, is a misrepresentation of fact. The assessment given in my UPI outside view commentary of 29 November 2005 stands affirmed by the continued incompetence being displayed.

At the same time, I am happy to advise that Barzani is being forced to withdraw the Kurdish battalions for concern of being caught off guard by intensifying Turkish cross-border actions. I have briefed you on the actions, which are being taken by AQ/M. The less you know the better. We are in the process of implementing the course of action agreed upon with the Turkish Army and AQ/M, with the objective of further destabilizing the Northern security situation, to the point of a Turkish invasion. Our hand on this one will have to be played, most discreetly, as we must not be seen as collaborating with outside powers, interfering in the internal affairs of Iraq.
I have made it clear to the United States Government that short of a strategic decision, on their part, to engage you, personally, with the objective to enlist Shia militias in common cause, i.e. contra AQ/M and, possibly, Iran, I see little basis, on which to assume that the collapse of the U.S. effort can be avoided. I would hope that you do permit yourself to be engaged, personally. America is not defined by the singular actions of a single man. As I said in my statement to the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee on 1 February 2007: [2]

“General Petraeus may have set himself up for defeat, given, inter alia, the manifest shortcomings in manpower, political will and time to see the plan through. The soldier/ per capita ratio is off, deployment falls short of what he called for, the window of opportunity is narrow. As a battle plan rarely survives first contact with the enemy, these constraints limit General Petraeus’s room for maneuver, adjustment. To work, all elements of the plan would have to come together, flawlessly, which presupposes a level of coordination/ cooperation with the Iraqis which, to date, has been found wanting. Moreover, the military outflanks the political, running the risk of proceeding independent thereof. Although, from a macro-theoretical perspective the Army’s new counter-insurgency manual, which the General helped write, is sound and will stand the test of history, in translating it into the war plan for the Battle for Baghdad, he may have failed to dissociate politics from strategy. Important the more, as counter-insurgency, house-to-house close-range big city combat, is not traditionally purview of the U.S. Army. Therefore, the Battle for Baghdad must be seen as a tactical gambit to regain the strategic initiative, a worthwhile albeit feasible gambit. But, a gambit. It must be appreciated as such.

Contrary to the President’s postulation, strategy and command are not, at this point, set apart from White House political needs. The informed observer, including an enemy whose recent actions have been noted to be marked by a new level of sophistication, (!) further realizes that the United States is confronting serious issues relating to capacity and intent to wage the war. While not yet a “political war,” the political and military components of the war effort run the risk of ending up on parallel tracks. It remains to be seen for how long, beyond the plan’s initial success, the Joint Chiefs and combatant commanders remain insulated from public criticism.”
It is said assessment, which informed your order to JAM to stand down and, with the underlying rationale remaining valid, continues to define said posture as the prudent course of action for us to take. Yet, the day is approaching that JAM will have to assert itself, alongside the Americans, if possible, alone, if necessary. The collapse of BSP will provide sufficient cover in this regard. The measures taken by us in Western Baghdad must be seen in this regard.

Since its original success in toppling the Devil, the war has taken on a dynamic of its own, well beyond its original intentions, because from the outset the U.S. pursued a flawed strategy due to erroneous assumptions and a lack of understanding of and appreciation for the operant dynamics of the Iraqi body politic. The way, in which the U.S. mishandled the dialogue with you, in my view, will be one for the history books. You are one in a succession of great leaders, over time, the Americans failed to catch on to.
Regrettably, erroneous assumptions and a lack of understanding of and appreciation for the operant dynamic of the Iraqi body politic continue to under gird the Administration’s conduct of the war as, yet again, manifest in the impending collapse of the BSP. Ignorance on top of incompetence, coupled with hubris is helping your cause.

“One of the main weaknesses in General Petraeus’ approach may lie in his dialectical method of presentation. Believing the political in follow-on to the military to form the basis on which to separate the populous from the insurgents, he seems to view war as neither “nothing but” a show of force nor “merely” a rational act of politics or policy. Given that in Iraq, however, the one tends to be a function of the other, could provide a conceptual flaw to be exploited by the other side.”[3]

That’s where your approach is inspired. As in advance of national reconciliation we “have two plans, the President’s and the P.M.’s which, for political purposes, are being advanced as mutually supportive, but which, depending upon what either side chooses to do next, can also be used to knock the other side off,”[4] the operant dynamic of Iraqi politics is aiding the JAM military strategy. To date, the President has not fully caught on to the fact that his surge strategy is not only failing because of its conceptual flaws, but also because of who he chose to align himself with in implementing it.

II. The Political Situation

The Iraqi Central Government, under Prime Minister al-Maliki, is being eroded from both, within, e.g. the state of civil war, which exists between Iraq’s Shia majority and Sunni and Kurdish minorities and resultant political maneuverings internal to the governing coalition, as well as externally, e.g. the outside intervention/ proxy wars by Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. The Iraqi Prime Minister’s proximity to a faltering American President, even where more perceived than real, further eroding the government’s slipping hold on power. Perception of that proximity should be enhanced at every opportunity. It will hasten the P.M’s demise.

To appreciate the uncertainties surrounding the Battle for Baghdad, one must appreciate the ambiguities, which characterize the relationship between the President of the United States and the Prime Minister of Iraq and, par consequent, the tenuous interaction between the United Stages Government and the Government of Iraq, marked by persistent questions about competence and integrity. These impressions should be fostered.

Both, Messrs. Bush and al-Maliki, are severely weakened, domestically and internationally. Core constituencies having parted, or threatening/ intending to part company. The conduct of the war, the lack of manifest progress, only further eroding popular support, as well as, heightening growing strains with the Parliamentary leadership and the military high command, as the day is approaching, where failure attaches to name and reputation. The sun setting, the shadows lengthening on their public service, the happen stance of history imposing a unity of purpose, even where strong differences in goals and modalities persist. It is ironic to note that the Prime Minister’s plan aimed to achieve exactly the opposite of the measures taken by the President, who has chosen to militarize the Prime Minister’s plan. And may, yet, want to militarize it further. At least, through spring 2008. The discreet planning for a “second surge,” camouflaged as troop rotation, must be seen in this regard, further accentuated by the possibility of an “all-out troop augmentation.” If they were able to find the troops, which, I am told, they can’t. Hence, to the informed, the P.M.’s lackluster support for the surge should not be surprising. We should further press the P.M. on a timeline, just to make sure that no-one is seriously considering long-term basing rights. We can play with definitions here both, in terms of concepts and timelines.

I think, it’s another example of your inspired leadership for you to get the Sunni Bloc to follow your lead in boycotting the cabinet. The combined enhanced bargaining position may just yield the desired results in forcing the P.M.’s hand on our agenda. I still don’t know how you did it. With the Sunni Bloc boycotting government, on top of our earlier walk out, the various alliances, on which depends the government’s viability to govern, are fracturing further. As more than a third of Ministerial posts are vacant and Parliament rarely able to reach a quorum, the ability of the al-Maliki government to govern is near non-existent. It is a government in nothing but name. A situation eroding the public’s trust and confidence in government, already shaken by the government’s inability to provide basic services to the people of Iraq. Points to accentuate on all fronts, at all levels.

Unable to govern, none of the significant benchmarks, the Americans have given, have been met. Not on Constitutional Reform. Not on Revenue-Sharing. Not on Provincial Elections. Not on Militias. Not on Amnesty. The list goes on. Secondary benchmarks which, for purpose of political camouflage, the President claims to have been met, at some level, are proving irrelevant in making a difference in terms of meeting intended objectives. The timid approach to national reconciliation has collapsed. There is no process, no follow-on to the December meeting. No effort to jumpstart the process. In a further sign of lessening expectations, some are talking of mere “accommodation.” As a result, the political track of the BSP will only further diverge from the military track, if one can even allow oneself to speak of a political track.

With the success of the BSP co-dependent on synchronization between its political and military tracks, the BSP should be expected to fall further behind in advance of its stated objectives, as a result of which the ability of the al-Maliki government to hold on to power will only further erode, as manifested by our efforts to effect a Parliamentary re-alignment, with the objective of forming a new government, including, and in particular, your efforts with Mr. al-Dulaimi. While I share the view that Mr. al-Hashemi makes a strong candidate for P.M., for reasons expanded upon, I hold that Dr. al-Hakim makes the more inspired candidate. He does not have that long to live, so you’ll get to fill that slot again, soon. Meanwhile, a move by you along these lines would be warmly received, especially among the younger leaders of the Supreme Council. It will also help Pupu play for time. In the interest of Shia unity, we should want to support him! It will enhance our hand with the Grand Ayatollah. Who better to force the Supreme Council to reciprocate your goodwill gesture? We must not permit ourselves to be outflanked on this front. It is with this in mind that I think we must, at least, be perceived to continue to engage the P.M. on willingness to re-join the Cabinet. Under no circumstance must we come across as obstructionist, let alone the ones going against the Grand Ayatollah. At least, not openly. We should continue to play participation in Parliament contra non-participation in the Cabinet. It’s with that in mind that I share Mr. al-Rubbaie’s recommendation for the Sadrist Bloc to rejoin Parliamentary proceedings, if alone short-term, for tactical advantage. That will enable us to co-opt, or compromise, whatever way you opt to go. Post-Najaf and Kufa the establishment is getting the message. They may not prove helpful, but they can no longer impede an unfolding historic trend. Especially one which serves Shia Revivalism and Shia Unity.
The P.M.’s inability to fill the Ministerial posts left vacant by the Sadrist walkout, especially as we are now determined not to rejoin a faltering government, is manifestation of his deteriorating stature within the Iraqi body politic. A fine line must be walked between undercutting al-Maliki, while preserving the integrity of the central government at the apex of Iraqi governance. The unseating of al-Maliki with the help of the periphery must not come at the expense of the center. We do not want to find ourselves in a situation, where the end to al-Maliki marks the end to the central government and, by extension, the end to Iraq.

I appreciate that few may want to succeed him, for as long as the sustainability of the Parliamentary re-alignment under-way is not in evidence. On the other end, the point-in-time is approaching, where continued government stalemate, its short-term advantage notwithstanding, will play against us. There’s only so much politicking, even in times of war, no matter how discreet. At some point, you will have to enter the center stage, or self-relegate yourself to leading support cast. Your call.
I would like to impress this point upon you, especially within the context of the regions asserting themselves over the central government. While in your dealing with the P.M. short-term, stalemate may play to advantage, long-term it plays against your commitment to the continued territorial integrity of Iraq.

As the stalemate at the center of Iraqi governance is expected to persist under al-Maliki, the regions are asserting themselves at the expense of the central government, a development, which is eroding national unity. Openly supportive of early Provincial elections, which we reasonably can expect to win, I understand, we must clear the air between us and the Supreme Council in the South. I share your view that he who, following Provincial elections, ends up controlling the South will determine the future of Iraq as a unitary State. We must continue to push for Provincial elections by the end of the year.

The ongoing battlefield showdown between JAM and BADR must be brought to naught to set the stage for political talks between Sadrists and the Supreme Council, especially once Pupu has asserted his post-pere leadership.
Given the failures of the BSP in advancing its stated objectives, the continuing erosion of support for the President’s war effort is not surprising. This erosion should be expected to continue and will play to our advantage. While the President may, yet again, opt for some tactical adjustment, e.g. a “secondary surge” concomitant to troop rotation, through spring 2008, the hand-writing of failure is now being inked on the wall. In red! And yet, the President, if given the means, may even opt for an “all-out troop augmentation.” One must never under-estimate the cunning of a desperate leader, as the water is rising to the lower neck. I am, however, told that the troops, necessary to make a battlefield difference, are simply non-existent and that even current surge levels cannot be sustained through spring. As stated at the time of BSP inception, the window for success was and remains narrow: 180 days and counting.

The defections by senior Senators, who are members of his Party, should make the Congressional effort by Democrats to push for timelines for withdrawal the more credible. One should expect these efforts to be augmented by similar efforts on the Republican side. While an immediate pullout should not be expected, and certainly not on the President’s watch, nor, and we should make this clear, to we seek one, the Department of Defense advance planning calls for a “phased re-deployment,” first into safe areas, in part to monitor the situation, unfolding internal to Iraq, in part to help avert an outright humanitarian disaster, before being re-deployed out-of-country, while retaining a residual force, whose strength, configuration and mission remains vague. Our posture on re-deployment, short-term, should be marked by “constructive ambiguity.”

Section Two: Your Position on BSP

“It is appreciated that you support the BSP, (military track) with the goal of restoring law and order to the streets of Iraq’s Capital city, in furtherance of the timely withdrawal/ redeployment of all foreign forces form Iraq, regular and irregular, parallel to a process for national reconciliation, (political track) which takes account of Shia unity in advance of Shia empowerment, political and economic, and which acknowledges the constructive role the religious plays in the public sphere of the New and democratic Iraq.”

I. Evolving Thinking

With P,M. al-Maliki’s stock tanking, President Talabani incapacitated by illness, Dr. Hakim dying and senior Iraqi leaders in the process of making contingency plans for their families, you stand alone in having advanced your agenda and, in so doing, having advanced yourself. One will remember that, at BSP inception, there was a widely-held view that you would be targeted for arrest/ assassination and that JAM and U.S.A. would clash. Neither of which has happened. The transformation of JAM from America’s Number One Enemy in Iraq to being replaced in that category by AQ/M, to finding ourselves in an “entente cordiale” with U.S.A. in advance of BSP, to the point, where General Odierno is on record as seeking a personal meeting with you and where the American Vice President is contemplating the feasibility/ desirability of a “political arrangement,” illustrates one of the major developments this spring and summer. Developments you can be proud of.

1.) Moderation: With victory in-hand, it is incumbent upon us not to misstep. Nor to gloat. You must pursue the course for integration and unity. Jubilation on the part of your followers must be kept in check. Further thought should be given as to how to re-conceptualize the struggle as a fusion between Gandhi’s quest for liberation from the yoke of Colonial subjugation and Dr. King’s quest for civil rights, as well as acceptance of constructive nonviolence, as distinct from pacifism, as a means for social change, integral to the Movement for National Liberation from Foreign Occupation. I appreciate that, if alone to placate core constituencies, moderation must be balanced off against the need to display “revolutionary” zeal. There are limits to the extent to which you will be able to show yourself a moderate, publicly, while the struggle is in full bloom. I like to think that the level of “deniability” inherent in an “entente cordiale” will help maintain the integrity of your posture.

2.) Re-Positioning JAM/ the Sadrist Movement and defining the relationship between the two. With JAM mapped and organized, uniform command and control structures having been instituted, and JAM being re-positioned as an “Army for Peace,” further thought will have to be given as to what to do with JAM, integral to the larger issue of militias, which will hit us, eventually. As disbanding JAM is out of the question, we may have to look at innovative approaches to “deactivation” vs. “decommissioning” vs. “demobilization.” A constructive ambiguity on language versus clarity on action may provide necessary room for maneuver. In the past, I mentioned the concept of “Construction Soldiers,” which my Uncle instituted in East Germany. The concept of “Neighborhood Watch” should also be explored.

It would be very helpful to learn your evolving thinking on the future of the Movement both, programmatically and organizationally/ operationally.

3.) JAM cooperation with BSP. We should let it be known that we are prepared to continue to cooperate, for as long as said cooperation continues to serve the national interest of Iraq. I do not believe that the signal inherent in the “No” to an alliance with Iran has been fully picked up.

4.) The JAM/ Sadrist Battle Plan must be revised to reflect the changing political-military situation on the ground. Although the “dual-encirclement strategy” will have to be sustained into the fall, how far do want to go in undercutting Barzani? If we do want to keep the Kurds within Iraq, then there are limits to our collaboration with Turkey contra Barzani, no matter how great the benefit in getting him to withdraw the battalions from Baghdad. I may want to have another talk with him, once the current round of direct measures will have run its course.
Also, the “dual track framework” will have to be adjusted to reflect an emerging new reality. If we do think that it is necessary to assert Shia Iraq over Shia Iran then, perhaps, this should be done, sooner rather than later. On the diplomatic front, I am optimistic on the French in this regard. On the military side, thought should be given to a coordinated approach with the Americans. I am concerned that post-Iraq defeat or post-Bush, whatever comes first, the threshold for American action/ intervention may be raised so high as to preclude/ limited future action. In other words, if we do foresee potential benefit for us in an entente cordiale with the Americans contra Iran, it may be now, or not so soon, again. Common cause contra Iran and AQ/M is key to advancing JAM/ Sadrist cooperation with the United States.

5.) The Ninneveh process should be further evolved as an informal consultative process between Shia militia and Sunni insurgency leaders, with the objective of advancing common cause in restoring public order, as conducive to the restoration of Iraqi sovereignty and self-governance. I continue to view the process as a major source of discreet influence for you. Also, it will ensure that the Americans not sidestep you in their dealings with the Sunni insurgency.

6.) It will continue to play to your advantage to define the Iraq Question between the Secular and the Non-Secular, with the Religious being advanced in defense/ advance of the Democratic. (see conclusion)

7.) The “Dialogue on Tolerance,” integral to the national reconciliation process, should be further evolved. Direct contact with Arun Gandhi should prove beneficial.

II. JAM/ Sadrist Game Plan

Defined by the programmatic set forth in the slogan: “Iraq Awakens: One People, One Country, One God”

II.1. The Agenda: How to reach what?
National Accord
New Contract for All Iraqis: Majority Rule, Minority Rights
Land Reform, Nationalization of Key Industries, e.g. Oil
Restoration of Sovereignty and Self-Governance (National Liberation)

Shia Empowerment, political and economic (Liberation Theology)
Empowerment of the Lower Classes (Civil Rights)
Empowerment of the Religious, including an enhanced role for the Religious in the Public Sphere (Islamic Revival, Religious and/or Political?) (Shia-Sunni, Arab-Non-Arab, Church-State)

The implosion of Iraq, i.e. the de-construction of the atheist Baathist regime, can be viewed as a gain, in terms of “self-purification,” depending on costs involved. The destruction of the one to be viewed as a necessary pre-condition to enable the other to come to the fore. The Biblical “nature’s ebb and flow” adage may spring to mind, if I may insert this reference.

There are variable operant dynamics in play between restoration of public order, the timely withdrawal of all foreign forces, regular and irregular, non-interference by outside powers, the restoration of Iraqi self-governance and the restoration of Iraqi sovereignty. At Kufa, not unlike the Day of National Awakening celebrated at Najaf a month, earlier, you demonstrated to Iraq’s political and religious leadership that the Movement stands uniquely prepared to advance the one, in furtherance of the other. As I wrote in FURKONO on 21 November 2006: “A door of opportunity is being opened. For discreet efforts are underway, among Sunni and Shia militia leaders, and leaders of the foreign jihad, to explore vistas for cooperative measures in restoring self-governance to the people of Iraq. It is hoped that an emerging Movement for the National Liberation of Iraq will test the hypothesis that an Iraq, whole and free, is tenable as a stabilized unitary democratic state, at peace with herself and her neighbors.”

II.2. The Message:
Objective: Message of Unity (Religious and Political)
Goals: Message of Liberation (External)
Message of Empowerment (Internal)
Means: Message of Tolerance
Message of Nonviolence
Message of Conciliation

II.3. Operational: To be advanced on two tracks.

II.3.a. Political: (Sadrist Movement)

II.3.a.1. Governmental:

Advance of Parliamentary Re-Alignment, with the goal of staging an insurrection, with the objective of forming a National Salvation Government. Talks underway with Sunnis and Kurds

Advance of Provincial Elections

Advance of Constitutional Reform (in advance of role of the Religious)

II.3.a.2. Nexus:

Advance of the National Reconciliation Process
Advance of Summit of Militia Leaders

II.3.a.3. Non-Governmental:

Advance of National Movement for Liberation
Advance of the National Movement for Empowerment
The pilgrimages to Najaf, Kufa and Samarra, to come, must be seen integral to the larger campaign to position Sadrists at the center of the two emerging extra-governmental movements, which feed on each other: liberation, external to Iraq, and empowerment, internal to Iraq.

Building on Najaf, Kufa provided the opening clarion call for the arduous work ahead, to advance national reconciliation in furtherance of national accord and national liberation. I note the preparations underway for Samarra. Again, we must underscore our regret over the continued absence of national accord and the Government’s inability to move the national reconciliation process forward. In further building upon the cross-sectarian appeal you are gaining, you must take the lead in filling the leadership void.[6] In advance of the Iraq Question, you must continue to advocate constructive nonviolence in advance of peaceful social change, including, inter alia, “peaceful demonstrations,” including “sit-ins,” and civil disobedience, staples of civil rights movements the world over.

II.3.b. Military: (JAM)

JAM/U.S.A. military cooperation in advance of BSP should continue, with Sadr City ever more “a shining city upon a hill,” an oasis in a sea of chaos all about. The public works project should be expedited.

Working on expanding the level of military cooperation beyond Baghdad, including, common cause against AQ/M and, possibly, Iran, should Iran persist to interfere in the internal affairs of Iraq. Waiting on a possible political track. The feasibility/ desirability of a “political arrangement,” envisioned by the American Vice President, should be explored.

Your detailed proposition in this regard, with the objective of jumpstarting the process for national reconciliation, is set forth in my message, entitled: “Hoyatoleslam Moqtadir al-Sadar’s Willingness to Help Jumpstart the Process for the National Reconciliation of Iraq,” dated 24 May 2007, and addressed to the Honorable Stephen J. Hadley, Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs. As I state: “National accord comes at the far-end of an arduous process which, integral to reconciliation, reconciles those, hitherto operating outside the political process, into the political process. It cannot solely be advanced by those already operating within the political process. That means, direct approach must be made to Shia militias and Sunni insurgents. Militias and insurgents are being talked about, rather than talked to. That must change.”

Further, as I state in my message of 24 May 2007, addressed to the Honorable David Hannah, Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs: “We are proposing to augment the level of military cooperation, already in play integral to BSP, with a political track, however informal, in advance of our common interests in Baghdad, Iraq, and beyond. In furtherance of common cause, we will do all, within our power, to help turn the BSP into a success, in time for GEN Petraeus’ statement to Congress in September. Such to be achieved by virtue of the Hoyatoleslam taking a lead in jumpstarting the process for national reconciliation on the basis of the points enumerated, notably Shia militia/ Sunni insurgent cooperation in advance of restoring law and order. This effort in advance of the political needs of the President and the new (Shia) Parliamentary majority.”

We are in the second 90-day phase of the Battle for Baghdad, “180 Days and Counting.” And the pressure will be kept up on all fronts, with the objective of getting the U.S. Army to offer to JAM to fill the void being left behind in Baghdad, as the new offensive against AQ/M gains traction. Within this regard, I have reminded the Americans of the constructive role being played by JAM. As I stated in my letter of 29 May 2007, addressed to General Peter Pace, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: “To the contrary of evolving thinking, at this stage of public opinion going against the surge, a visible battlefield victory is needed. JAM stands ready to help make this happen in Baghdad, in furtherance of the BSP, with the objective of advancing the political objectives, expanded upon in detail. Towards that end, I continue to argue in favor of coordinated “direct measures” against “key targets.” The bulk of the violence, both insurgent and sectarian, continues to be inflicted by an identifiable cabal, which can be rendered “neutral.” And JAM Special Operations Units, augmented by some of the previous regime’s finest and cooperating with Iraqi Special Forces, stand uniquely prepared and willing to accomplish that objective. I like to think that last week’s operations against Revolutionary Guards Cells are further manifestation of what can be achieved along that path. Let’s shut down those IED factories.”

Offensive actions in the North and the South will be maintained at full force. JAM SpecOps will continue to be executed against elements of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, operating on Iraqi territory. As I have indicated, we have a fair assessment as to who is holding the captive Britons and are zeroing in on their location. The P.M. has been advised, accordingly.

Rapprochement between us and the Supreme Council, which will be resultant from the showdown between JAM and BADR in the South (Basra), is critical to your leadership role on the Shia side. Nouri thinks to be able to deliver a battlefield victory to you by fall. I tend to think he may be a bit optimistic on that, as he’s not only confronting BADR, but also the British Army and they seem intent on getting into the fight.

Advance of the Ninneveh process, in furtherance of cooperation between Shia militias and Sunni insurgency, will further enhance your hand vis-à-vis Dr. Hakim. The recent effort by the U.S. Army to cooperate with Sunni insurgents in al-Anbar and Diyala, a positive development of potentially strategic import, parallels this effort. We should discreetly support this effort, because it enhances our own effort in this regard. Yet, make it clear that the U.S. embrace of the Sunni insurgency cannot come at the exclusion of Shia militias, lest the U.S. be intent on being portrayed as choosing sides in Iraq’s internal strife.

It will be incumbent upon us to ensure that the non-paper of 25 October 2006, which was crafted jointly by Sunni and Shia leaders, including militia and insurgency leaders, remains at the center of our efforts to advance the operant dynamic between restoration of sovereignty and public order, national reconciliation and national liberation.

Section Three: New Way Forward, Revisited
The American war effort, if not yet collapsing, can no longer be won. The United States, on its own, is in a no position to achieve the stated war objectives! As a result, the American President has indicated, privately, “a” willingness “to adjust” his war plan. We should expect this adjustment in fall/ winter, later rather than sooner, and should signal our preparedness to help him do so.

A lot will depend on the desirability/ feasibility of the yessable propositions, which are being advanced. He will gain the upper hand, who succeeds in advancing his own objectives in furtherance of the President’s objectives. A zero sum will prove untenable.

Within this regard, we should continue to help the U.S. Army achieve a tactical battlefield victory in advance of BSP to help the President gain breezing space, to make the necessary adjustments and to soften the blow of defeat. Our common objectives can be achieved in the 12-to-18 month time-frame, NOW under consideration. There is further potential for a convergence of views on the role, which a united democratic Iraq, at peace with self and her neighbors can play as an ally on the War on Terrorism. It should be underscored that the U.S. vision for the New Iraq and the Sadrist vision for the New Iraq are much closer in line than is appreciated.
One would hope that the Americans will realize that the surge is failing to meet its stated military and political objectives and realize why it is failing. Further, one would hope for them to realize that these shortcomings both, military and political, cannot, in the near-term, be redressed to change the situation, strategically. That in order to avoid outright defeat the strategy must be adjusted to reflect the emerging military and political realities confronting the U.S. war effort, in theatre and at home. That lack of readily manifest victory in Iraq (tactical defeat) can, as yet, be turned into more strategic success in the larger picture, e.g. positioning Iraq alongside the United States in the larger War, including contra AQ/M and Iran. We should continue to advocate a battlefield adjustment of alliances, accordingly.
The Americans must be made to appreciate that although of import to winning the war in Iraq, success or failure in the Battle for Baghdad will not, on its own, prove decisive in changing the winds of war. The effort must be expanded to the provinces and that can only be accomplished, together, in cooperation with Shia militias and Sunni insurgency. As they have done throughout, America’s fighting sons and daughters may, as yet, achieve a tactical objective, i.e. to secure the capital, and that remains a questionable proposition, while failing to achieve the larger strategic objective, i.e. to secure the country. And that is not in question. Moreover, the battle’s significance to the war on terror(ism) is overdrawn, just as is inflated the threat perception emanating from failure. Even at this stage of the war its link to terror(ism) is, at best, tenuous. In short, U.S. military personnel are being asked to sacrifice on the certain, on the imponderable of the uncertain.

We should further make it clear that we fully support the calls for an end to sectarian killings, the disarmament of militias and an equitable distribution of oil-revenue, presupposing that

1.) the unique role of Iraq as the sole Arab State with a duly-constituted Government, constituted on the basis of the free-will exercise of a free people, be respected and appreciated;

2.) the fundamental human rights and civil liberties enshrined in the Iraqi “Bill of Rights,” integral part of the Iraqi Constitution, along with full recognition of majority rule and the role of the religious in Iraq’s public sphere be respected and appreciated;

3.) the constructive parallelism between non-interference by outside powers/ withdrawal of all foreign forces, regular and irregular, restoration of public order/ sovereignty and self-governance be respected and appreciated;

4.) the constructive role, played by the emerging Movement for the National Liberation of Iraq from Foreign Occupation, in advance of sub. para. 3, be respected;

5.) a cessation of hostilities be advanced, concomitant to the redeployment of U.S.
forces, as both a precondition for and function of the fledgling process for national reconciliation, which must advance agreement on all principles, political and religious, which are to govern the new Iraq;

6.) an amnesty, general and blanket, be offered to all Iraqi nationals, willing to lay down their arms and to join the democratic political process;

7.) the Draft Oil Bill, pending before Parliament, be re-drafted to ensure ownership of Iraq’s oil reserves by the People.

Towards that end, our recommendations to adjust the strategy should be:

I. Demilitarize the strategy, adjusted: even though reconciliation comes at the far end of conflagration and the argument can be made that, perhaps, violence has, not yet, been at the level necessary to get people to their senses, lack of capacity and intent will make a sustainable military effort, aimed at helping facilitate a political solution, more unrealistic.

II. Reverse surge. Set deadlines for immediate re-deployment (within 180 days, i.e. spring 2008) and near-term withdrawal. (within 540 days, i.e. 9 April 2009) Replace departing troops with militias and insurgents, amenable to political compromise and re-configuration under government control either, at the level of the central government or the provincial level. Encourage recall of eligible soldiers of the Iraqi Army, in particular Specialized Republican Guard. A new effort should be made to enlist General Hamdani. I like to think that his rejection is softening.

III. Advance cross-sectarian political and militia/ insurgency cooperation in furtherance of common cause. (AQ/M/ Iran) (the two feeding on each other)
Advance the one as a condition and function of the other.
Work on both, the governmental and non-governmental levels. Fuse E Pluribus Unum and Divide et Impera.

III. 1. On the governmental level:

The future of Iraq rests with the people and Government of Iraq and with them alone.
Influence/ support ongoing efforts aimed at Parliamentary re-alignment, with objective of forming a National Salvation Government, capable and willing to govern, to be led by a competent and willing Prime Minister, committed to the advance of National Accord both, programmatically and operationally. Help bring about a governing coalition, which has the benchmarks as an integral part of the coalition agreement. Discreetly influence the coalition agreement in line with overall objectives and goals.

Support the creation of a Department for Militia Affairs within the Ministry for Defense, or creation of a Ministry for Militia Affairs

III. 2. On the non-governmental level:

Work on Shia Militias and Sunni Insurgency, with the near-term goal of enlisting their support in restoring public order, and the long-term objective of integrating them into the political process. Distinguish “enemy,” i.e. militias and insurgents, from the “foe,” e.g. AQ/M. Destroy the foe, while co-opting the enemy in furtherance of common tactical goals, i.e. defeating the foe, while keeping resolution to possible differences on strategic objectives, i.e. the vision for the New Iraq, in abeyance.[7] Give the enemy that, which he wants that you can live with, long-term, while obtaining that, which you need, short-term.

With that in mind:

JAM/ USA military cooperation should be expanded beyond BSP, with the military track to be augmented by a political dialogue between the Administration and the Sadrist political leadership. The President may want to dispatch a Special Envoy to meet with you, if only we can get you to receive him. Align JAM both with US military and political interests, presupposing that JAM can unite the Shia bloc and militias behind a functioning National Government, under a competent Prime Minister. Cooperation between JAM and BADR and Sadrists and the Supreme Council should be encouraged as a necessary corollary to enhanced JAM/USA cooperation, with the objective of advancing a united front of Shia militias, which should positively impact upon Sadrist/ Supreme Council Parliamentary cooperation.

This effort should be seen as building on the U.S. Army’s ongoing efforts with Sunni insurgents in al-Anbar and Diyala and is consistent with JAM’s own efforts, integral to the Ninneveh process, with the objective of expanding Shia militia cooperation to the Sunni insurgency. Further advance Shia/ Sunni political cooperation.
These efforts should be fused, in part, by offering a strong DD&R programme, which must be based on interlocking political and economic incentives to be available to former combatants, willing to lay down their arms, to join the political process and to abide by the national accord. Some should prove amenable to be incorporated into the Iraqi Army and Security Forces. Others could be re-configured as an Iraqi National Guard, to be organized along provincial lines. Others should be disbanded.
You should state, publicly, that we support the U.S. decision to cooperate with those nationalist elements of the Sunni insurgency, willing to join the democratic process and amenable to political compromise, as an extension of military cooperation, in place between JAM and the U.S. Army, in advance of the BSP, especially in restoring security to the streets of Sadr City. Furthermore, that the decision is seen as both a precondition for and function of widening the scope and deepening the level of JAM/ USA military cooperation, in Baghdad, throughout Iraq, and beyond.

USA/ Sunni insurgent military cooperation marks an important step of potentially strategic import. We must assist this effort. It underscores the efficacy of the approach, which GEN Odierno and I discussed, i.e. the need to find “definitions” in order to differentiate between “extremists” vs. “terrorists,” and is manifestation of my adage that “extremists are outflanked at the far-end, not the near-end.”[8]
General Odierno stated: “When we look at it from a United States perspective, it's about who threatens the United States. … I guess you have to get into the technical definitions between the two. The bottom line is who threatens the safety of our citizens in the United States and as well as our allies, and we will deal with it based on that.”[9] An important point further expanded on by General Odierno on 7 January 2007, when he referred to the need for the Government of Iraq to devise a policy to redress the 20% of militias operating outside the law, implying that 80% of militias are within the law.

With the Government of Iraq failing the General, I am optimistic that a coordinated effort, on the part of the Combatant Commanders, to engage amenable elements of the Sunni insurgency and Shia militias, including JAM and Badr, in a common front to restore law and order in Iraq will provide a realistic basis for a battlefield victory. JAM stands ready. The meeting between JAM and USA Combatant Commanders went well and should be built upon. Further, the proposed meeting between Ambassador Crocker and the Sadrist Parliamentary leadership should proceed. The talks with BADR should be further advanced.

I believe my article, “Towards Reconciliation and Sovereignty: Iraqis Claim Their National destiny,” Furkono (Assyrian Liberation Party) 21 November 2006, remains valid in this regard:

“Today's militiaman, who will be Iraq's leader of tomorrow, must agree that Iraqis do not kill Iraqis. Renunciation of the use of violence is a mandatory pre-requisite for inclusion in a general and blanket amnesty to be afforded all Iraqis willing to lay down their arms and to join the democratic process.”

Lack of progress on amnesty is disappointing and proving not helpful. Amnesty is an important means, integral to DD&R. I would hope for reconsideration of this important point.

You and Dr. al-Hakim should follow through on cooperating on an interim cessation of violence, to be observed by Shia militias in the run-up to the national reconciliation conference. The Summit of Militia Leaders, under consideration, could prove an important catalyst towards that end. A successful conference, resultant in a follow-on process based on a goal-oriented Programme of Action, should help facilitate an indefinite extension.

At the same time, discreet efforts underway to enlist Sunni militias should be further encouraged, including the proposition for the Mujahedeen Shura Council to be invited, should all Iraqi members of the Council renounce violence and declare their preparedness to abide by the national accord. That would require a command decision at the level of Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri, including an instruction to Abu-Ayeeb al-Masri to seize operations and leave the country. Word is outstanding what, if any, premium Dr. Zawahiri is willing to pay for a political role within the Council for a de-militarized al-Qaeda Mesopotamia, re-constituted.

Enlisting nationalist elements of the militias and the insurgency into the domestic political process remains the best hope, short-term, to improve Iraq`s internal security situation and thence make possible the phased withdrawal of all foreign forces and -- the ultimate goal -- the restoration of full sovereignty.
The transformation of eligible militia and insurgency elements into Army National Guard should be given further thought.[10] As Iraq looks for ways to integrate those elements of the various militias, willing to join the democratic process, into the Iraqi Army, the American experience of transforming America’s militias and integrating them into a uniform forces structure provides an important example. Just as, in replacing the old Militia Act of 1792, the 1903 Dick Act thrust the federal government into the picture by establishing procedures for a more direct and active role in organizing, training and equipping the National Guard in line with the standards established for the regular Army, so an inspired Iraqi political leadership will have to advance an organized militia, (National Guard) with an organization, pay, discipline and equipment of the National Guard to be the same as that of the Regular Iraqi Army.

A re-alignment of Iraq along ethnic lines is well underway. It remains to be seen if anyone really has the will and ability to reverse a historic trend. The level of an Iraqi national identity is encouraging and could, as yet, forestall partition along ethnic and religious lines. On the other hand, the threat perception to emanate from Federalism seems overdrawn. A Federal structure could even prove useful in enabling the re-constituting of eligible elements of the militias as National Guard under primary regional command and control, but overall command and control of the Army Chief of Staff. I fully appreciate that you do not support the re-alignment of Iraq along Federal lines for fear that it proves to be the antecedent to partition. And you may prove right on this point. And yet, the emerging reality on the ground may prove a fait accomplish. Thought should be given to the desirability of a U.N. administered plebiscite.

Creative thinking will also have to be applied to what to do with AQ/M in the long-term. We are committed to confronting AQ/M head on and our cooperation in this regard, as in evidence in ongoing military operations, where we have, in part, provided actionable battlefield Intel to the Americans, may be counted on. And yet, I may assume that it is understood that, not unlike Shia militias and Sunni insurgency, AQ/M will not solely be defeated on the battlefield. I firmly believe that AQ/M must be engaged along lines similar to those, which warrant USA engagement of militias and insurgents. I fully appreciate that I do not have you with me on this one, but thank you for granting permission to explore the effort’s feasibility/ desirability.
A wedge must be driven between those elements of AQ/M, who are Iraqi nationals versus those who are not. That could enable us to drive a wedge between AQ/M and AQ/Central, especially should an AQ/M, re-configured, be eligible for participation in the post-Liberation political process. Those members of AQ/M, nationals of Iraq, willing to lay down their arms and to join the democratic process, must be eligible for the general and blanket amnesty which, following national accord, will have to be available to all Iraqis. I do not see what fault line, other than Iraqi versus non-Iraqi, can be drawn, integral to the national reconciliation process, which you want to jumpstart. Would getting AQ/M to split from AQ/Central not constitute a strategic defeat for AQ/Central? And could this not help our juxtaposition in the larger war?

A few reflections on my dealings with AQ/M. I view the effort critical to advance of our larger strategic objectives. “Constructive engagement” of AQ is not only critical to the future of Iraq, but, AQ is also the Grand Prize in the War on Terror. Also, self-serving that it is, succ